Summary of C

1
Summary of CS Savings Changes Due to New
Findings for 2005-06 Standards
Douglas MahoneHeschong Mahone Group Inc.
2
Review CS Savings Factors

• First year savings per measure
• Attribution credited to CS program
• Normal code adoption timeframe
• Natural market adoption rate
• Non-compliance rate
• Last two studied by Quantec

3
Review CS Ex Ante Estimates
4
Natural Market Adoption Rate

• Bass Curve vs. Straight Line

5
Delphi Process Using Experts

• Recruited industry experts
• Used web-based tool to draw curves
• Second round each compared to average
• Curve based on
• Initial year
• Maximum penetration
• Leading behavior consumers own choice
• Following behavior influence of others
• Concerns maybe nobody knows the market

6
Delphi Process Using Experts

• Example Res. Hardwired Lighting

7
Natural Adoption Results
8
Non-Compliance Rate

• Appliance Standards
• Surveyed suppliers and available units
• Building Standards
• Reviewed plan check documents
• Confirmed with site visits
• Did not attempt time series
• Each measure was a different problem

9
Non-Compliance Rates Found
10
Change of Overall Compliance Rate

• The default non-compliance rate was 30 for all
  measures
• Overall energy savings weighted compliance rate
  slightly higher

11
Changes in Savings Results Compared to Utility
Goals
12
Addition of Three Title 20 Measures
13
Changes for savings spreadsheet

• Corrected start years for B2, B3, B6, B7, B9
  all to 2006
• Changed the order of calculation (standards
  adoption is the third)
• Incorporated Quantec market study results
• For measures covered by the Quantec natural
  market adoption study, first-year energy savings
  adjusted to levels without initial natural market
  adoption
• Split std18 into std18a and 18b (TVs and DVDs)

14
Outstanding CS Issues

• Getting evaluators to observe for attribution
• Appliance Standards separate treatment for new
  and existing buildings
• Remove measure life adjustment
• Further improvements to methods tested by Quantec
  study
• Evaluation risk for compliance enhancement
  studies
• Policy issues length of savings stream, 50
  discount of 2005 CS savings

15
References

• Quantec Study
• Report CPUC Program No. 1134-04Statewide Codes
  and Standards Market Adoption and Noncompliance
  Rates
• CALMAC Study ID SCE0224.01 (search quantec)
• CS Savings Spreadsheet Report
• Update to be posted shortly
• Original CALMAC Study ID SCE0241.01 (search
  mahone)