Climate Change

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Climate Change Model Scenarios Model Users
Group Meeting August 15, 2008 Elaine Olivares
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Transportation Factors Driving Rise in CO2
Emissions 1. Increasing VMT 1990 20 county
region VMT 94 million 1990 20 county population
3.06 million 2000 20 county region VMT 137
million 2000 20 county population 4.26 million
2010 20 county region VMT 167 million 2010 20
county population 5.1 million
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Transportation Factors Driving Rise in CO2
Emissions

• Inefficient Fleet
• First step in addressing CO2 challenges
• Fuel economy
• Dramatic increase
• 2002 Economic Census, Vehicle Inventory and Use
  Survey

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• Transportation Factors Driving Rise in CO2
  Emissions
• 3. On-Road Freight Traffic
• 84 of region freight movement
• 55 increase in VMT projected from 2005 to 2030
• Heavy-duty diesel engines as a primary CO2
  emission source
• Lower average fuel economy lt 10 mpg
• Idling at truck stops and distribution
  facilities
• Legal challenge to regulating fuel economy for
  this fleet
•   

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• Transportation Factors Driving Rise in CO2
  Emissions
• 4. Congestion
• Low travel speeds and idling lead to decreased
  fuel economy
• 1.35 TTI in 2005 projected to increase to 1.64
  by 2030
• In 2008 delay caused by congestion will result
  in
• 1.32 million daily hours of delay
• 1.67 million daily gallons of fuel consumed
  (private vehicle only)
• In 2030 delay caused by congestion will result
  in
• 3.06 million daily hours of delay
• 3.33 million daily gallons of fuel consumed
  (assumes constant mpg)

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• Transportation Variables to Consider
• Vehicles Improve overall fuel economy though
  technology
• Fuel Lower Carbon content or burn less
• VMT Drive less

Center for Clean Air Policy
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Regional Growth Scenarios

• Future Local Plans (Trend)
• Envision6
• New CAFE standard under EISA
• Increased density
• TPB Concept 3

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Regional Scenario Tests Emissions Future Local
Plans Envision6 RTP (Assumes Constant Fuel
Economy)
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Change In Average Fuel Economy (Current Atlanta
Region Trend versus EISA CAFÉ Standard)
Energy Independence and Security Act, Dec. 2007
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DRAFT CO2 Emissions Future Local Plans
Envision6 RTP (Shows impact of EISA CAFÉ Standard)
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DRAFT CO2 Emissions Envision6 RTP/RDP
Density (Assumes EISA CAFÉ - Land Use Scenario
Test)
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DRAFT CO2 Emissions Envision6 RTP TPB Concept
3 (DRAFT Land Use Transit Investment)
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DRAFT CO2 Emissions Summary
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Limitations

• Mobile 6.2
• Limited to fuel economy estimates
• Cannot be adjusted for speed, temperatures, fuel
  content, or inspection maintenance programs
• MOVES