NCEP CONDUIT UPDATE

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NCEP CONDUIT UPDATE

• Brent A. Gordon
• NCEP Central Operations
• January 11, 2005

WHERE AMERICAS CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN
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Topics

• Current CONDUIT Data Sets
• Status of Proposed Data Additions/Deletions
• CONDUIT Data Delays
• 2004 NCEP Implementations
• 2005 Planned NCEP Implementations
• NCEP CCS Status

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Current CONDUIT Data Sets
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Current CONDUIT Data Sets

• 30 GB of data per day
• 25 GB in 2003
• GFS to 384 hours, 4X per day
• 0.5, 1.0, 2.5 degree global grids
• GFS Ensemble Products
• NAM (Eta) model to 84 hours, 4X per day
• CONUS at 90, 40, 20 km resolution
• AK at 45 km resolution
• RUC model at 20 km resolution
• MRF 2.5 degree global grids

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Proposed Additions/Deletions(from May 2003
CONDUITUsers Meeting)
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Proposed Data Additions/Deletions(May 2003)

• Priority Additions
• GFS out to 384 hours, 4X per day
• NCEP delivered UNIDATA receiving
• GFS (FNL) analysis grids
• NCEP ready UNIDATA decision pending
• Full 3-D Eta at 12 km resolution (GRIB2 Format)
• NCEP ready UNIDATA decision pending

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Proposed Data Additions/Deletions(May 2003)

• Lower priority additions
• SREF Products1
• GFS and Eta prepbufr datasets2
• Restricted Data Issue
• ECMWF2
• Restricted Data Issue
• 0.5 deg GFS data
• NCEP delivered UNIDATA receiving (Thanks Lance
  Bosart)

1 NCEP Director wants to revisit priority for
SREF 2 Should be dropped because of data
restriction issues
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Proposed Data Additions/Deletions (May 2003)

• Proposed Deletions
• MRF Data
• Almost GONE 2.5 degree data remain
• MRF data will be eliminated completely JAN 2006
• Individual GFS ensemble members
• GONE
• 40 km RUC data sets
• GONE
• 20 km CONUS Eta grid
• After addition of 12 km grid

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Delays on CONDUIT
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Delays on CONDUIT

• Some improvement seen after system upgrades were
  made at NWS/TOC in the beginning of 2004
• Delays returned after the addition of the 0.5
  degree GFS data sets.
• Most pronounced at 06 and 18 UTC.
• Maximum delays of 1 1.5 hours
• Implemented a solution on January 5, 2005 to
  change the way NCEP inserts data into the LDM
• Delays are now down to 20 minutes at peak

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2004 NCEP Implementations
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2004 NCEP Implementations

• Global Forecast System (GFS)
• Subgrid-scale orographic forcing February
• Global Visibility Product March
• Global Vessel Icing March
• Global Ensembles
• Resolution increase March
• T62 increased to T126 from 84 hrs to 180 hrs
• Climate Forecast System (CFS)
• Breakthrough operational climate model system
• Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model for seasonal SST
  forecasts from 70N to 65S August

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2004 Implementations (cont.)

• Eta Model
• Physics Bundle March
• Eta MOS upgrade March
• NMM WRF (two different dynamic cores ) -
  September
• Regional Ensembles
• Increased diversity August
• Wave Model
• Data assimilation for altimeter buoy data May
• Extend range of hurricane wave model from 3 to 5
  days May
• Air Quality
• New model implementation over NE US September

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Implementation Plans for 2005
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2005 Preview

• Global Forecast System (GFS)
• Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS 2nd Qtr FY2005 (25
  Jan)
• Initial implementation will continue to run in
  sigma mode only
• Will provide the framework for hybrid coordinate
  model at some point in the future
• Resolution increase to T382/T190 3rd Qtr FY2005
• 35Km resolution Same as the Eta model
  resolution when the current NCEP Director arrive
  6 years ago
• Highest resolution will be extended from 84 to
  180 hours
• Higher resolution files (0.5 degree) will be
  available at later forecast hours
• Climate
• Increase to 2 CFS runs/day 2nd Qtr FY2005

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2005 Preview (cont.)

• GFDL Hurricane Model 3rd Qtr FY2005
• Improved cloud microphysics
• New ensemble product of tropical cyclone tracks
• Possible addition of higher resolution interior
  grid (18 km ? 9 Km)
• Air Quality Forecast
• Expanded domain to eastern U.S. - 3rd Qtr FY2005
• North American Mesoscale
• Eta Model
• Physics Package 3rd Qtr FY2005
• WRF-NMM Model
• Six member ensemble in Hi Res Window 3rd Qtr
  FY2005

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2005 Preview (cont.)

• RUC
• Resolution increase from 20 Km to 13 Km 3rd Qtr
  FY2005
• No change in format or content of existing files
• New 13 Km grid is planned, but not at initial
  implementation
• Marine
• Wave Model
• 10 member Ensemble Wave model 4th Qtr FY2005
• Misc
• Upgrade to Gulf Stream finder 2nd Qtr FY2005
• High resolution sea ice analysis 3rd Qtr FY2005
• Ensemble based sea ice drift product 4th Qtr
  FY2005

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Upcoming NCEP Model Name Changes

• AVN ? GFS name change
• Links to GFS named data sets were provided on the
  NWS NCEP FTP servers on June 15, 2004
• AVN named data sets will be eliminated on January
  25, 2005
• Eta ? NAM name change
• NAM North American Mesoscale
• Links to NAM named data sets were provided on the
  NWS NCEP FTP servers on October 18, 2004
• Eta named data sets will be eliminated on January
  25, 2005

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NCEP Central Computer System Status
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CCS Phase II System

• Three Systems
• Two identical production systems in Gaithersburg,
  MD and Fairmont, WV
• Performance guarantee of 3.2x the current system
• Capable of providing complete backup of NCEP
  Production Suite
• Will allow NCEP to resume operations within 30
  minutes of primary failure
• No more disruptive quarterly backup tests
• RD System in Gaithersburg, MD
• Operations from the new systems will begin on
  January 25, 2005.

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Questions/Comments