Peak Oil

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• Peak Oil

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U.S. Monthly Production

• Peak Oct 1970 310,403,000 Barrels
• Approximately 10 MBD
• Current Oct 2007 156,188,000 Barrels
• Approximately 5 MBD
• Source - EIA

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World Real Discovery Trend
Historical Data ExxonMobil
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Fredrik Robelius

• Doctoral Dissertation on Peak Oil, March 30, 2007
• University of Uppsala, Sweden
• Peak? Worst case 2008 - Best case 2018

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Dr. Ali Bakhtiari

• Predicted by 2020 world oil production will drop
  to 55 MBD (now 84 MBD).

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USGS Methodology

• Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital
  Management
• The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) claims the
  production peak at 2032, but don't believe it.
• The U.S. government has an official policy of
  calculating reserves based on projected demand,
  not on projected supply. (Yes, you read that
  correctly!)
• As the Energy Information Agency explains,
  "estimates are based on non-technical
  considerations that support domestic supply
  growth to the levels necessary to meet projected
  demand levels."

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GAO Report on Peak Oil, 2007

• Most studies say PO between now and 2040
• Timing depends on multiple, uncertain factors
  (amount of oil in ground, how much can be
  produced, future oil demand).
• OPEC reserves are NOT verified by independent
  auditors.
• Great uncertainty about future production given
  the technological, cost and environmental
  challenges.
• Politically unstable areas for more than 60 of
  worlds oil.
• Important to begin efforts to find alternatives
  now.

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US Oil Imports (2007)

• Canada 1.78 mbd
• Mexico 1.58 mbd
• Saudi Arabia 1.42 mbd
• Venezuela 1.14 mbd
• Nigeria 1.04 mbd
• Iraq 0.55 mbd
• Angola 0.51 mbd
• Algeria 0.36 mbd
• Ecuador 0.27 mbd
• Kuwait 0.18 mbd

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Impacts?

• Crude price (per barrel) 54
  Jan 2007
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  66 May 2007
• 
  100 Jan 2008
• Crude oil prices could touch 380 a barrel by
  2015. French investment bank Ixis-CIB,
  (prediction made April 2005)
• The Hirsch report from US Dept of Energy says
  society needs 20 years investment in energy
  conservation, renewable energy and changes in
  transportation before the peak to have easy
  transition. Any less will cause significant
  social suffering.

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Impacts?

• When it occurs, Peak Oil will likely have a major
  impact on the economy (remember the 1970s).
• Additional impacts are likely on food production
  and distribution, transportation, housing,
  medicine, and plastics.
• Natural Gas will also likely peak in the next few
  decades.
• A German firm says Coal will peak in 10-15 years.

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Big Questions

• In U.S. we use 10 calories of petroleum to
  produce one calorie of food. How will the world
  feed ourselves as oil supplies decrease?
• U.S. and world economies are dependent on cheap
  fuel. How will we avoid recessions or
  depressions as fuel prices rise and as oil
  production declines?
• How will we travel and transport goods and
  materials?
• How will we replace plastics, artificial
  fabrics, medicines and other by-products of
  petroleum?

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Answers?Unconventional Oil?

• Canadian Tar Sands (Oil Sands)
• 1 MBD current
• Estimated 3-4 MBD by 2015
• Uses large amounts of water and natural gas
• environmentally harmful
• Ethanol low EROEI
• environmentally harmful
• reduces food supply
• Shale? No current technology to convert to oil
  in large production.
• Deep Ocean Oil very expensive and problems with
  equipment and weather.
• Arctic Oil More available with melting Arctic
  ice which is a serious environmental hazard.

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Possible Collective Actions

• Create task force to study local implications and
  recommended changes (ex. Sweden, San Francisco,
  Oakland, Portland)
• Zoning and building regulations changes
• Promote local production of food and goods
• Create/increase Public Transportation.
• Community energy projects.
• Public loans for energy efficiency.
• Carbon taxes and other public policies to reduce
  fossil fuel consumption.

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Personal actions

• Reduce Fuel Consumption Transportation
• Drive less fewer trips more efficient trips
• Fly less
• Carpool
• Walk and Bike/E-Bike
• Drive higher mpg vehicles
• Biofuels
• Public transport

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Reduce Fuel Consumption Home

• Increase home insulation
• Reduce electric usage and unplug unused
  electronics
• Lower heat in winter, higher temp in summer
• Use Compact Florescent Light Bulbs
• Grow some of your own food
• Purchase Local Food (organic if possible) (e.g.,
  Farmers Markets, CSAs, Coops)
• Purchase Locally Produced Products (mail order
  2nd best choice)
• Use Renewable Energy (Solar Hot Water, PV, Wind,
  Geothermal, Biofuels).

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Resources

• Richard Heinberg - The Partys Over and
• The Oil Depletion Protocol.
• David Goodstein - Out of Gas The End of the Age
  of Oil.
• Matthew Simmons -Twilight in the Desert The
  Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.
• West Wisconsin Peak Oil Alliance
• Sustainable Dunn www.1ness.org/sustainabledunn/