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A Look Under the Hood

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Student sims. Faculty sims. Response functions. The 12 model groups ... 2. Allocation. 3. Faculty hiring. Students 2000, The Jackson Hole Higher Education ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A Look Under the Hood


1
A Look Under the Hood
Virtual U
  • William F. Massy
  • The Jackson Hole Higher Education Group, Inc.,
    and the National Center for Postsecondary
    Improvement, Stanford University
  • Stanford, CANovember 3, 2000

2
What Well Cover
  • Architecture
  • Student sims
  • Faculty sims
  • Response functions
  • The 12 model groups

3
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
4
Data Sources
  • Data were collected by the Institute for Research
    on Higher Education, University of Pennsylvania
  • Secondary source data (including IPEDS, College
    Board, NELS) e.g.,
  • faculty student numbers, diversity, salaries,
    financial profiles, financial aid, student
    segment data.
  • Scavenger hunt e.g.,
  • curricular requirements, graduation rates,
    athletic costs revenues, facilities costs,
    faculty time profiles.

5
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Resource allocation
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
6
Resource AllocationProcedure for Balancing
Priorities
  • Simulates the universitys budget office.
  • Presidential inputs
  • targets priorities upper and lower limits.
  • Procedure
  • Minimize the weighted sum of the squared
    differences between the result and the target,
    while observing the limits to the extent
    possible.
  • The results are shown in the right-hand column.
  • Presidents can change the inputs and ask the
    budget office to repeat the procedure.

7
Resource AllocationStage 1. Revenue and
Expenditure
What gets balanced
  • Growth rates of revenue (gR)
  • tuition, financial aid, endowment spending,
    indirect costs on research (given admission
    targets)
  • Growth rates of expense (gE)
  • faculty and staff salaries, real operating budget
    growth, transfer to plant
  • The surplus or deficit

Reality check
(1gR) Revt1 (1gE) Expt1 Surplus (deficit)
8
Resource AllocationStage 2. Allocations
What gets balanced
  • Growth rates of expense for individual functions
    and offices (gi)
  • faculty expenses (excluding the salary increases
    covered in Stage 1)
  • non-faculty departmental expense, libraries,
    information technology, athletics, student life,
    development office, administration, OM,
    enrollment management

Reality check
Sumi (1gi) Expi, t 1 (Real budget growth)
Expt 1
9
Resource AllocationStage 3. Faculty Hiring
What gets balanced
  • Departmental faculty budgets
  • faculty budgetd (excluding the salary increases
    covered in Stage 1)
  • new faculty hiresd faculty budgetd cost of
    continuing facultyd
  • The president can override the budget.

Reality check
Sumd Faculty budgetsd total faculty expense
10
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
11
Enrollment Management
  • Student application and enrollment decisions are
    simulated for seven student segments.
  • Decisions depend on institutional
    characteristics, tuition, and financial aid
    policies.
  • Admission decisions allocate the target intake
    according to institutional priorities.
  • academic, extracurricular, and athletic
    performance gender minority status
  • Procedure takes account of prior yield rates.

12
Student Segmentation Scheme
Extracurricular index (v2)
Membership
5.5
4.0
0.0
10.0
1. Blue Chip
5.8
2
Academic
2. Scholar
9.2
1
7.0
index
3. ExtraCurr.
5.8
4
5.5
5
(v1)
4. Athlete
8.3
6
3
5. Balanced
25.7
4.0
6. Average
30.5
7
7. Stretch
14.7
0.0

Gender, minority status, and athletic ability are
included in the database.
Based on the National Education Longitudinal
Survey (NELS)
13
Simulated Students
  • Program level and year in program
  • Gender/ethnic group
  • Talent indices
  • academic, extracurricular, athletics (L1 only)
  • Financial need status (undergraduate only)
  • Major
  • undergrads decide after year 1
  • Courses passed
  • Satisfaction indices
  • academic, extracurricular, athletics (L1 only)

14
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
15
Student Model
  • Students take courses graduate when theyve
    accumulated enough credits.
  • Separate requirements for general education
    major.
  • Courses may be full denial may delay progress.
  • Failure probability rstudent talent, ed
    qualty
  • Student acad satisfaction red quality,
    libraries IT, course denials, stuLife,
    athletics record
  • Pr(dropout) rstudent satisfaction (acad, x-c,
    ath), course failures, diversity index
  • Students(t) students (t 1) graduates
    dropouts new matriculants

16
Response Functions
Other features
Logistic (S) curve
1. Multiple variables apply response functions
first, then take the weighted sum.
2. Latency makes the effect evolve
graduallyy(t) l y(t1) (1l)
x(t),where x(t) is the weighted sum.
Dual logistic curve
17
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
18
Faculty Hiring
  • Number of hires departmental priorities are
    determined by Resource Allocation.
  • President sets the priority sliders
  • new blood (asst prof) leadership (full prof)
    cost containment (low salary) gender/ethnic
    adjunct talent profile.
  • Model predicts market salaries, then uses linear
    programming to allocate the available hires
    according to priorities.

19
Simulated Faculty
  • Name, department
  • Rank, age, time at institution, off-duty term
  • Talent indices
  • teaching, research, scholarship (not adjunct)
  • Salary
  • Performance
  • teaching, research, scholarship (not adjunct)
  • Sponsored research
  • current projects proposals outstanding
  • Satisfaction

20
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
21
Faculty Model
  • Faculty teach, do research and scholarship.
  • Teaching perf rtalents, time distrib, acad
    support
  • Scholarship perf rabove, with different
    weights
  • Research perf rabove, plus direct sponsRes
  • Faculty satisfaction rsalary, teaching
    load, diversity index, perfVsTalent,
    discTimeStrain, dept acad standing, promotion
    difficulty asst
  • Pr(departure) rsatisfaction
  • Pr(promotion) rperformance, prom. difficulty
  • Faculty(t) faculty(t 1) departures hires

22
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
23
Teaching Model
  • Course demand student sign-ups
  • depend on remaining requirements by field,
    prerequisites, and target cohort of course
  • Course Supply faculty assignments
  • depend on course type mix, normal class sizes,
    normal teaching load stretch factors.
  • Matching up supply and demand
  • Students admitted to courses when space is
    available.
  • New sections opened when faculty are available to
    teach otherwise the course is closed.
  • Ed. Quality rfacPerfs, edDevTime, IT, class
    size

24
Research Model
  • Profs quality drivers rres talent, res
    perf (t1), dept acad standing (t1), institution
    al prestige (t1)
  • Prproposal rfield, quality drivers, res
    time, docStuQual, current projects
  • Prproject size rfield, quality drivers
  • Praward rquality drivers, indCostRate
  • University overhead recovery indCostRate (tota
    l research volume)

25
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
26
Student Life and Athletics
  • Student life satisfaction rstudent
    x-c talent, studentLife, athletics
  • Student athletics satisfaction
    rstudent athletics talent, athletics record
  • Athletics record rNCAA level, athletics, top
    athletes, average athletic talent
  • Football for men Basketball for women
  • Changing NCAA level changes spending talent
    requirements and revenue expectation.

27
Development and Endowment
  • Monthly gifts rdevelop, inst
    prestige, alumni morale, athletics record
  • Designated for current use, endowment, and
    facilities.
  • Alumni morale rinstPrest, surplus(def),
    athPerf
  • Investment return fasset allocation
  • Expected return is based on finance research.
  • Asset allocation is set by the president.
  • Endowment spending (spending rate) (smoothed
    endowment market value)
  • Spending rate is determined in Resource
    Allocation.
  • Smoothing is based on 3 or 5-year moving average.

28
Facilities
  • Deferred maintenance rOM, space in use,
    deferred maintenance (t1)
  • Space need fstudent faculty numbers by
    dept, total operating exp
  • New space is built to meet need if funds are
    available.
  • Failure to meet need hurts performance and
    morale.
  • Funds come from Facilities Reserve and new debt.
  • Facilities Reserve comes from the budget and
    gifts.
  • Percent funded by debt and the internal debt
    limit are presidential policies.
  • External debt capacity fassets liabilities

29
Virtual U Architecture
Students
Teaching
Studentsims
Enrollmentmanagement
1. Revenue expenditure 2. Allocation 3.
Faculty hiring
Facultyhiring
Facultysims
Research scholarship
Faculty
Financial results
Performance indicators
Trustee evaluation
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