Tradeoff Analysis and MinimumData Modeling

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Tradeoff Analysis and Minimum-Data
Modeling John Antle Jetse Stoorvogel
Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change, Nairobi
September 24-26 2008
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• The challenge policy-relevant assessment of
  agricultural sustainability
• How to quantify concept of sustainability to
  support informed policy decision making?
• Identify stakeholder priorities (indicators) and
  strategies (scenarios)
• Understand how indicators respond to changes in
  the system (tradeoffs and win-wins)

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

• Identify key sustainability indicators and
  tradeoffs
• Identify technology and policy scenarios

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

• Identify key disciplines in research team
• Define spatial and temporal scales of analysis
  for
• disciplinary integration and policy analysis

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

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The Challenge Support informed decision
makingThe Approach Tradeoff Analysis
A participatory process, not a model

• Public stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Scientists

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Implementing the TOA Approach the TOA Software
A modular approach to integrate spatial data and
disciplinary models to simulate agricultural
systems on a site-specific basis and aggregate to
a level relevant for policy analysis.
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• Tradeoff Analysis assessing technology policy
  options
• Tradeoff curves feasible combinations of
  sustainability indicators
• Technology and policy scenarios using data and
  modeling tools to explore options and find
  win-win solutions.

Health Environment
People may choose to trade off income for health
or environmental quality, or vice-versa!
Why not do BCA?
Farm Income
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• Example Using TOA for analysis of CC mitigation,
  impacts adaptation in Machakos, Kenya
• (Antle Stoorvogel, Env Dev Econ 2008)
• climate models data and downscaling of IPCC
  scenarios w/wo aerosols
• crop and livestock models suitability for CC
  analysis of impacts adaptation
• economic data and models adaptation through
  changes in land use, management
• environmental process models

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• semi-subsistence farming system, maize,
  vegetables, subsistence crops livestock
• serious soil nutrient SOM depletion
• more than 60 of households below poverty line
  (1/day/person)

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The Machakos case study
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The critical role of spatial heterogeneity
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Main issues

• Population pressure

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Main issues

• Population pressure
• Land degradation

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Main issues

• Population pressure
• Land degradation
• Climate (drought)

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Climate change, poverty and nutrient depletion
with maize price scenario
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Climate change, poverty and nutrient depletion
with vegetable price scenario
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Vegetable prices with irrigation investment
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Spatial distribution of poverty (poverty mapping)
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• Towards the Minimum-Data Approach
• TOA is one way to quantify the concept of
  agricultural sustainability
• but data requirements are very high, models are
  complex
• for some questions (e.g., technology adoption,
  ecosystem services) we can use simpler models
  with lower data requirements to obtain a
  first-order estimate of economic feasibility of
  new technologies

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Comparison of EP and MD models Carbon contract
participation in Machakos, Kenya Case Study (Full
model 700 parms, MD 75)
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• Plan for the Rest of the Workshop
• Systems modeling the Machakos case
• Minimum-Data modeling economics
• Minimum-Data modeling bio-physical
• Minimum-Data software
• Exercises
• Improved maize variety
• Climate change impacts
• Sweet potato adoption
• Adaptation to climate change
• Project planning