ECO 439 Applied Time Series Econometrics

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ECO 439 Applied Time Series Econometrics

• Dr. David G. Loomis
• Illinois State University
• 309-438-7979
• dloomis_at_ilstu.edu

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Introductions Who am I?

• Professional Background
• Teaching Philosophy
• Personal Life

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Introductions- Who are You?

• Name
• Area of interest
• Topics covered in 438 what you remember
• Wall Street Journal

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Introductions- Syllabus

• Readings
• E-reserves

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Resources for Forecasting

• Forecasting Books
• Textbooks
• Others
• Journals / Important Articles
• Web Sites
• News
• Organizations
• Data
• On-line Tutorials

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Forecasting Textbooks

• Business Fluctuations Forecasting Techniques
  Applications (2nd ed.) (Bails Peppers, 1993)
  607 pp.
• Heavily oriented towards applications in both the
  corporate forecasting and macroeconomic
  forecasting areas
• One of the best texts at combining technique
  coverage with a good description of forecasting
  process.
• Provides whole chapters on Monitoring and
  Revising Forecasts and Communicating the
  Forecast to Management.

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Forecasting Textbooks

• Forecasting Principles and Applications (Stephen
  DeLurgio, 1998) 802 pp.
• Comprehensive, well-written, easy-to-follow
• Covers Multivariate ARIMA, ARIMA intervention,
  econometric methods (structural equations and 2
  stage least squares), and neural networks

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Forecasting Textbooks

• Business Forecasting (Holt and Keating, 1998) 490
  pp.
• Written for managers, for forecasting
  practitioners, and for students who will one day
  be business professionals.
• Stated emphasis is on the forecasting methods
  that practicing forecasters have actually found
  useful.
• 20 of the book is explanations for using SORITEC
  (a student version is bundled with book)

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Forecasting Textbooks

• Forecasting Methods and Applications (3rd ed)
  (Makridakis, Wheelwright, and Hyndman, 1998) 642
  pp.
• Most comprehensive and best resource for
  reference purposes
• Main focus is on quantitative techniques

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Forecasting Textbooks

• Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts (4th
  ed) (Pindyck Rubinfeld, 1998) 634 pp.
• Best forecasting book for those econometrically
  oriented
• lots of clear and varied examples
• is no coverage of technological or judgmental
  forecasting

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Textbook Reviews

• Cox , J. E. and D. G. Loomis (2001), "Diffusion
  of Forecasting Principles Through Books," in
  Principles of Forecasting A Handbook for
  Researchers and Practitioners, by J. S. Armstrong
  (ed.), Norwell, MA Kluwer Academic Publishers
• Cox and Loomis, A Review of Forecasting
  Textbooks, draft.

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Other Books

• Lester Taylor, Telecommunications Demand
  Analysis, Kluwer, 1990.
• Loomis and Taylor (ed.), The Future of
  Telecommunications Forecasting and Demand
  Analysis, Kluwer, 1999.
• Loomis and Taylor (ed.), Forecasting the
  Internet Understanding the Explosive Growth of
  Data Communications, Kluwer, 2001.

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Software

• For software review, Professor Len Tashman
  maintains a Web site (http//www.bsad.emba.uvm.edu
  /forecasting/) providing searchable reviews of
  forecasting and forecasting related software.
• A comprehensive list of software reviews is
  maintained at the Principles of Forecasting
  Website.

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Major Forecasting Packages

• Autobox
• E-views
• ForecastPro
• ForecastX
• Smart Forecasts
• 3P Software

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Forecasting Journals

• Journal of Business Forecasting
• more practitioner-oriented, "written in an
  easy-to-understand style for business executives
  and managers."
• International Journal of Forecasting
• "publishes high quality refereed papers covering
  all aspects of forecasting. Its objective is to
  unify the field, and to bridge the gap between
  theory and practice.
• Journal of Forecasting
• "multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with
  any aspect of forecasting

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Web Sites

• Large Collection of Links
• Principles of Forecasting
• http//www-marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/
• http//Forecastingprinciples.com
• Resources for Economists
• http//www.rfe.org/
• IIF
• http//forecasters.org

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Methodology Tree
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Forecasting Course Rationale (Loomis/Cox, 2000)

• Separate microeconomic forecasting from
  macroeconomic forecasting
• Provide an integrated framework for students
  emphasizing the process of forecasting and not
  just a series of unrelated techniques
• Do not overemphasize econometric models to the
  exclusion of other methods

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Forecasting Course Rationale (Loomis/Cox, 2000)

• Teach students how to prepare and/or evaluate
  data
• Teach how to guide the use of forecasts
• Use appropriate resources