William Farr: Good Numbers, Bad Theory

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William Farr Good Numbers, Bad Theory

• B. Burt Gerstman (Adapted for MUSE class of
  11/23/04)

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William Farr
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Brief Bio (Humphries, 1885)

• Born 1807
• Adopted at age 2 by wealthy individual
• Studied medicine 1826 1828
• Received inheritance enabling study in Paris and
  Switzerland (medical statistics)
• Published statistical reports in 1830s
• Did poorly in medical practice in London
• Hired in the Registrar General's Office, worked
  there for 41 years
• Died 1883

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Farr's conceptual framework of disease etiology
(Eyler, 1980, p. 2)

• Environmental reform in which political and
  medical ideas reinforced each other
• Statistics offered best hope of advancing social
  progress and medical knowledge
• Imaginative use of a numerical method

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All smell in disease

• Clung to orthodox explanation that epidemic
  disease was caused by foul air (a "miasma")
• Used complex mathematical models to prove his
  point

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Failed to account . . .

• for the fact that people living at low elevations
  were more likely to draw water from contaminated
  sources . . .

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Conclusion

• Firm commitments to political ideology clouds
  scientific judgment
• Reliance on numerical method without attention to
  a pathophysiologic mechanisms is
  counterproductive

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References

• Eyler, J. M. (1980). The conceptual origins of
  William Farr's epidemiology numerical methods
  and social thought in the 1830s. In A. M.
  Lilienfeld (Ed.), Time, Places, and Persons (pp.
  1-21). Baltimore The Johns Hopkins University
  Press.
• Farr, W. (1852). Influence of Elevation on the
  Fatality of Cholera. Journal of the Statistical
  Society of London, 15(2), 155-183.
• Gerstman, B. B. (2003). Epidemiology Kept Simple
  An Introduction to Traditional and Modern
  Epidemiology (2 ed.). New York Wiley-Liss.
• Halliday, S. (2000). William Farr Campaigning
  Statistician. Journal of Medical Biography, 8,
  220-227 (Available http//www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow
  /farr/).
• Humphreys, N. A. (1885). Biographical Sketch of
  William Farr. In Vital Statistics A Memorial
  Volume of Selections from the Reports and
  Writings of William Farr (pp. vii-xxiv). London
  Office of the Sanitary Institute..