Democratization%20in%20Asia

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Democratization in Asia

• Causes, Processes, and Consequences

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Outline

• 3rd wave of democratization
• Causes
• economic
• cultural
• Processes
• Consequences
• economy
• security

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Waves of Democratization

• A group of transitions from nondemocratic to
  democratic regimes that occur within a specified
  period of time and that significantly outnumber
  transitions in the opposite direction during that
  period

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The First Two Waves

• A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922
  to 1942
• A wave of democratization after World War II from
  1943 to 1964
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961
  to 1975

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The Third Wave

• Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s
• Spread to South America from late 1970s to early
  1980s
• Reached Asia in late 1980s
• Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of
  1980s
• South Africa 1990

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The Third Wave
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Causes of Regime Change
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Economic Explanation?

• Almost all rich countries have democratic
  institutions

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Economic Variable

• Economic development
• dispersion of resources
• economic pluralism
• social pluralism
• political pluralism

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Economic Variable

• Economic development
• middle class
• demand for democracy
• elite bargaining
• political accommodation

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Economic Variable

• Economic development
• rising expectations
• economic difficulties
• popular discontent
• regime crises

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Cultural Explanation?

• Are Islam and the Asian values obstacles to
  democracy?

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Support for Democracy

• World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys
• The following slide shows the percentage of
  respondents who said a democratic system is a
  very good or fairly good way of governing
  this country
• Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually
  rank relatively high

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Support for Strong Leader

• The following slide shows the percentage of
  respondents who said having a strong leader who
  does not have to bother with parliament and
  elections would be very good or fairly
  good
• Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually
  have relatively low support for this
  authoritarian option

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Scenarios of Change

• Preservation of authoritarian regime
• Gradual transition to
• authoritarian pluralism
• Gradual and moderate liberalization
• Gradual and moderate democratization
• Radical transition toward
• a new authoritarian regime
• a democracy

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Regime Changes
Non-democracy
Preservation
State Crises
Regime Change
Democracy
Democracy
Non-democracy
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Top-down Processes

• From top down
• Conflict of interest
• Elite competition
• Gradual transition
• Problematic implications
• democratization is easy
• skillful elite can establish democracy in any
  setting

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Bottom-up Processes

• From bottom up
• Popular demand
• Political movement
• Radical revolution

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Consequences

• Does democracy promote economic growth?
• Does democracy promote security?