Global Warming Just Hot Air

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Global Warming Just Hot Air?
D.S. ChapmanUniversity of Utah
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1 C
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1850
1928
1981
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Climate ChangeInferred fromBorehole Temperatures

• Direct measure of T
• Continuous, not seasonal
• Integrates T(t)
• Tracks air temperature
• Complements instrumental record

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Comparison with Proxy Records
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Consequences of Global Warming
Ward Hunt Ice Shelf, 2002
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Alaska Tundra Travel Days Decreased by Half Since
1970
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Climate Change and Global Wine Quality Jones et
al., Climatic Change, 2005
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90
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What Dont We Know?
Public policy debates are constantly getting
stuck in the mire of perceptions about scientific
uncertainty and risk. Yet science is no
different to many other areas of human
experience, in that uncertainty and risk are
inevitably present. In a readable, entertaining
presentation, Henry Pollack removes some of the
mystery surrounding scientific uncertainty by
placing it alongside examples from everyday
life. Sir John Houghton, Co-chair of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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What Dont We Know?

• 2. Climate feedback mechanisms require better
  understanding
• a) Cloud radiation feedback system
• Positive or negative?
• b) Ocean dynamics feedback system
• Heat Reservoir
• Carbon Reservoir
• atmosphere 700 Gtonnes
• biosphere 2,000 Gtonnes
• oceans 35,000 Gtonnes

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1 bulb/household 400,000 cars/year
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Goal Reduce Population Growth
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It's time to go on a low-carbon diet.
Natural Gas Hydrogen Solar
beyond petroleum
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The world consumes two barrels of oil for every
barrel discovered.
Is this something you should be worried about?
willyoujoinus.com
Chevron Steps Taken Committing over 100 million
every year on renewable energies, alternative
fuels and improving efficiency
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Global Warming Just Hot Air?

• Warming is real.
• Feedback system is complex.
• Consequences of warming are mixed losers
  outnumber winners.
• Attribution requires research.
• Greenhouse gas emissions are growing residence
  times are long.
• Prudent path has benefits beyond reducing warming.

D.S. ChapmanUniversity of Utah
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Questions About Global Warming
Q Why should I be concerned by just a few
degrees of warming? Q Why do satellite
measurements show cooling while surface
measurements show warming? Q How can global
warming be caused by greenhouse gases when
temperatures have sometimes decreased while
greenhouse gases were increasing? Q Wont taking
steps to reduce carbon emissions ruin our
economy?
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Q Wont taking steps to reduce our CO2
emissions to the atmosphere ruin our
economy?

• Studies are mixed
• Consider

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Global Warming Just Hot Air?

• Warming is real.
• Feedback system is complex.
• Consequences of warming are mixed losers
  outnumber winners.
• Attribution requires research.
• Greenhouse gas emissions are growing residence
  times are long.
• Prudent path has benefits beyond reducing warming.

D.S. ChapmanUniversity of Utah