IPCC

1
Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group II Summary For Policymakers
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
April 6, 2007

www.ucsusa.org
2
Figure Courtesy of IPCC
3
Working Group II 174 Lead Authors 222
Contributing Authors 45 Review Editors Full
Report 1,572 pages Summary for Policymakers
4
Overview Consequences on the Ground
Water Food Species Coasts Extreme Events Health
5

• What the IPCC Means by high confidence
• The IPCC uses specific language, also indicated
  by number of asterisks, to describe confidence
  regarding statements
• very high confidence (9 out of 10 chance),
• high confidence (8 out of 10 chance),
• medium confidence (5 out of 10 chance).

6

• Human-induced climate change
• Observational evidence from all continents and
  most oceans shows that many natural systems are
  being affected by regional climate changes,
  particularly temperature increases.
• 89 of the 29,000 datasets that IPCC examined
  exhibited changes in the direction expected from
  warming.

7

• Human-induced climate change
• It is likely that since 1970, human-induced
  warming has had a discernible influence on many
  physical and biological systems.

8

• WATER
• Hundreds of millions of people will be exposed to
  increased water stress, which will get worse with
  increasing temperatures.
• Water availability will decrease by as much as
  30 in current drought-prone areas, in the dry
  tropics, and over much of the mid-latitudes,
  including the southwestern U.S.

9

• WATER
• The more than one sixth of the world population
  that currently lives near rivers that derive
  their water from glaciers and snow cover will see
  their water resources decline.
• Water resources will be diminished in western
  North America as decreased snowpack in the
  mountains reduces summer river flows.

10

• FOOD
• Hunger risk is projected to increase for low
  latitude regions, in particular the seasonally
  dry tropics, as these areas will likely
  experience decreased crop yields for even small
  temperature increases.
• Regions in Africa will be particularly prone to
  hunger risk due to a reduction in the areas
  suitable for agriculture.

11

• FOOD
• Under slight temperature increases, higher
  latitude regions such as Northern Europe, North
  America, New Zealand, and temperate zone soybean
  regions of Latin America can adapt and benefit
  from increased growing season length, more
  precipitation, and/or less frost.
• However, if local mean average temperature rise
  exceeds 5.0 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 degrees
  Celsius), crop yields in some regions are
  projected to decline in mid to high latitudes.

12

• SPECIES
• Species have already shifted their ranges to
  higher latitudes and higher elevations over the
  past several decades.
• Twenty to thirty percent of assessed plant and
  animal species on Earth will face extinction if
  the increase in global average temperature
  exceeds 2.3-4.1ºF (1.3-2.3ºC).

13

• SPECIES
• The capacity of many species and ecosystems to
  adapt will be exceeded in this century as climate
  change and its associated disturbances (including
  floods, drought, wildfire, insects, and ocean
  acidification) increase.
• If sea surface temperature increases above
  seasonal average maximum level by around 1.8
  degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) coral
  bleaching of most corals occurs and above 3.6
  degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) most
  corals die.

14

• COASTS
• Many millions more people are projected to be
  flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the
  2080s.
• The most vulnerable populations are the largest
  mega-deltas of Asia and Africa and small
  islands.

15

• Extreme Events
• Where extreme weather events such as heat waves,
  droughts, fires, wildfires, floods, and severe
  storms become more intense an/or frequent, the
  economic and social costs of those events will
  increase.
• Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are
  projected to have increasing impacts on U.S.
  forests, with an extended fire season and large
  increases in area burned.

16

• Human Health
• Projected climate change-related exposures will
  affect the health status of millions of people
  worldwide.
• U.S. cities that currently experience heat waves
  are expected to be challenged with an increased
  number, intensity, and duration of heat waves
  over the course of the century, with potential
  for negative health impacts.

17

• Human Health
• Some infectious diseases, such as those carried
  by insects and rodents, may become a growing
  problem.
• The elderly, the children, and the poor of all
  nations are the most vulnerable populations and
  may be unable to cope with the climate change
  stresses.

18
(No Transcript)
19

• THANK YOU!

20
General Regional Impacts To California specifics
WG2 SPM
21
IPCC, 2007 North America

• "Warming in western mountains is projected to
  cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding,
  and reduced summer flows, exacerbating
  competition for over-allocated water resources

IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section
22
Will California receive adequate precipitation?
Little consensus wetter or drier
Cayan et al. 2006
23
Decreasing Snowpack
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
24
Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are
projected to have increasing impacts on forests,
with an extended period of high fire risk and
large increases in area burned.
IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section
25
Climate change impacts on forests

• Increased Temperatures
• (effects Productivity)
• CO2 fertilization
• (effects Productivity)
• Longer Dry Season
• Increased vulnerability to
• Widlfires
• Pests
• Direct mortality
• Shifts in species distribution

Slide modified from Climate Impacts group,
Washington www.cses.washington.edu
26
Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last
30 years.
Western US area burned
Source Westerling et Al. 2006
27
Increasing Wildfire Frequency
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
28
Coastal communities and habitats will be
increasingly stressed by climate change impacts
interacting with development and pollution...
IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section
29
General Regional Impacts To California specifics
WG2 SPM
30
IPCC, 2007 North America

• "Warming in western mountains is projected to
  cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding,
  and reduced summer flows, exacerbating
  competition for over-allocated water resources

IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section
31
Will California receive adequate precipitation?
Little consensus wetter or drier
Cayan et al. 2006
32
Decreasing Snowpack
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
33
Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are
projected to have increasing impacts on forests,
with an extended period of high fire risk and
large increases in area burned.
IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section
34
Climate change impacts on forests

• Increased Temperatures
• (effects Productivity)
• CO2 fertilization
• (effects Productivity)
• Longer Dry Season
• Increased vulnerability to
• Widlfires
• Pests
• Direct mortality
• Shifts in species distribution

Slide modified from Climate Impacts group,
Washington www.cses.washington.edu
35
Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last
30 years.
Western US area burned
Source Westerling et Al. 2006
36
Increasing Wildfire Frequency
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
37
Coastal communities and habitats will be
increasingly stressed by climate change impacts
interacting with development and pollution...
IPCC, FAR 2007 North America section