Country experiences in assessing public spending on BSS:

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HDI trends
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Poverty headcount (based on national poverty
line not 1/day)
Actual
Required
13
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Under-five mortality rate
47
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U5MR trends 1990-2006
1990 All 76 / Pak 130 2006 All 55 / Pak 97
U5MR in 06
n190
U5MR in 1990
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U5MR by quintile
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Net primary enrollment ratio
100
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DHS 2006/07 highlights

• Almost 1 in 10 children die before age 5 little
  changed since 2000
• 39 of deliveries by a health professional
• Supplementation of breast milk starts early
• Proportion of children fully immunized 47 in
  2006 down from 53 in 2001
• 44 of ever-married women have heard of AIDS
• Contraceptive prevalence rate plateau-ed at 30
• Total fertility rate high at 4.1 population
  dividend

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Pakistan selected indicators by maternal
education
Avg44
Avg39
Avg47
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Next Asian Tiger or failed state?

• Serious economic turbulence ahead
• Unsustainable deficits trade, budget, energy,
  water
• Under-investment in basic services
• Recent growth spurt is ending led to bubbles in
  real estate, KSE, consumer demand
• Growth without development limited structural
  change little trickle-down
• Polarized society many dimensions

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Democratic or autocratic ?

• Sickly democracy in Asia 2006 saw military coups
  in Thailand Fiji 2007 saw non-elected
  caretaker gov. in Bangladesh state of emergency
  in Pakistan
• EIU rank of 27 Asian countries (2007) 16 flawed
  democracies 10 authoritarian 1 full
  democracy
• Democratic practice within political parties is
  poor. Dynastic parties are symptom thereof
• Democracy in Pakistan will continue to wobble
  muddling through
• Space needed to make it home-grown