Stability A Contribution Complex Systems can make to System of Systems Engineering

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Stability A Contribution Complex Systems can
make to System of Systems Engineering

• Complex Systems and SoS Engineering Workshop,
  RAND, 1/11-12/06
• Elliot Axelband

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Background - Paraphrased Comments

• There are too many programs in the DoD that
  suffer from Cost Growth, Schedule Overruns, and
  Performance Shortfalls - Sheard
• Complex Systems Theory that grew out of Chaos
  Theory and Complexity Theory can possibly help,
  by impacting the way these programs are system
  engineered - Sheard
• I agree with first statement, and second premise,
  and add that Complex Systems Programs as well
  Systems of Systems Programs could benefit from
  any contributions Complex Systems Theory can
  provide- - Axelband
• For simplicity I will use the terms Complex
  Systems to include Systems of Systems, and System
  Engineering (SE) to include Systems of Systems
  Engineering, without implying that there are not
  differences between these subjects. That
  compaction may be inappropriate for later
  detailed discussions

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Some SE Fundamentals

• System Engineering is concerned with the design,
  building and fielding (life cycle processes)
  associated with complex, innovative systems
• You dont need SE if your product is a lead
  pencil, or your service is that of communicating
  via the internet
• You dont need SE if you are doing something
  youve done before
• An example of a complex innovative system follows
  

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(No Transcript)
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F-35, Joint Strike Fighter

• In Development
• Provides very advanced Capabilities (Complex and
  Innovative)
• Largest Military Procurement - 400B, gt3000A/C
• 30,000 plus, gt100K parts,One Pilot,17M LOC
• 3 Variants for US Application - Air Force, Navy,
  Marine
• National and Multi-National Partners and
  Multi-National Users
• Fully Networked

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Defense System Life Cycle
Source DAU Handbook
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Defense System Development
Verification and Validation
System Need
System
System Design
System
Subsystem Design
Subsystem
Component Design
Component
Buy/Code/ Manufacture
Decomposition
Integration Test
Requirements - Design - Manufacture - Assemble -
Test
Time
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Defense System Development-1
Verification and Validation
System Need
System
System Design
System
Subsystem Design
Subsystem
Component Design
Component
Buy/Code/ Manufacture
Decomposition
Integration
Redesign is a part of Design Design is
Experimental IterativeSpiral Development
It takes 3 passes through the Development
Process to field a Production System - 1st when
System is a Prototype (SDD), - 2nd when
Manufacture is a Prototype (LRP), - 3rd at the
start of Full Rate Production
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Incremental Development
Source DAU Handbook
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Poor Mans History of Stability
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Back to Chaos (Complexity Theory), SE, and DoD
Program Stability

• Chaos concern with Stability
• The Butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo
  effecting weather a half-world away
• The classic first order non-linear difference
  equation that exhibits different Liapunov modes
  when one parameter is changes
• Is Chaos Theory bad non-linear math?, Teller
• Can the bad program performance of many DoD
  complex programs be characterized as a stability
  problem
• Consider the three dimensional space of cost,
  performance and schedule, and the means to keep
  the program trajectory within a bounded subset
  (acceptable cost,schedule,performance, a closed
  set) possibly using risk characterized by
  probability measures
• Can real complex systems be controlled/informed
  by the application of abstract complexity theory
  principles?
• Lets see
• Todays SOA - variations on Spiral and
  Incremental Development, a Discovery and
  Adjustment Paradigm
• JSF Overrun - How to Bound?
• Lets review the specifics