FUTURE STUDIES

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FUTURE STUDIES

• FUTURING 5
• CHANGE
• A COURSE FOR
• UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS
• by
• Earl C. Joseph, Futurist

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TOPICS COVERED

• PURPOSE
• CULTURAL CHANGE DEFINED
• CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE
• TYPES OF CHANGE
• DEALING WITH CHANGE
• REASONS FOR CHANGE
• RESPONSES TO CHANGE
• SWOTS

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PURPOSE CHANGE DEFINED

• PURPOSE TO OUTLINE CAUSES OF CHANGE AND TO
  DISCUSS POSSIBLE IMPACTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF
  CHANGE
• "CULTURAL CHANGE INVOLVES NEW FRAMES OF
  REFERENCE, NEW WAYS OF ACTING CULTURAL CHANGE
  RESULTS FROM ACTORS ACQUIRING NEW SYMBOLIC
  RESOURCES (COGNITIVE FRAMES, PARADIGMS CONCEPTS,
  KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS) IN CHANGED STRUCTURAL CONTEXTS
  (ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXTS, WORK PROCESSES) WHERE
  THESE SYMBOLIC RESOURCES ARE MEANINGFUL,
  DEPLOYABLE AND OPERATIONAL. (TAVISTOCK
  INSTITUTE)

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PURPOSE CHANGE DEFINED - 2

• WHY FORECAST? TO DISCOVER THE RESULTS OF CHANGE
• IN ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE, ITS ABOUT
  FORECASTING CHANGE
• THEREFORE, TO FORECAST THE FUTURE, ONE FIRST
  NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND CHANGE
• CHANGE IS ABOUT HOW SOMETHING WILL BE ALTERED IN
  THE FUTURE
• CHANGE CAN BE BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE

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CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE -1

• SOME OF THE CLASSICAL CHANGE PHILOSOPHERS
  ATTEMPTED TO IDENTIFY THE SERIES OF EVENTS THAT
  TRIGGERED OR FORCED CHANGE (THAT IS, OUTCOMES OF
  CHANGE)
• OTHERS TRIED TO EXPLAIN CHANGE USING MORE GENERAL
  TERMS AND BY DEVELOPING OR USING THEORIES OF
  CHANGE
• EACH TRIED TO EXPLAIN THE WHY, WHEN, WHAT, WHERE,
  AND HOW OF CHANGE

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CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE - 2

• EVOLUTIONARY THEORIES (DARWIN, SPENCER, COMTE,
  MARX, ENGELS, DURKHEIM) -- VIEWS CHANGE AS A
  DEVELOPMENTAL PROCESS OF A SYSTEMS POTENTIAL
  TOWARD A FURTHER RESULT, PURPOSE, CHANGE, OR END
• FUNCTIONALIST THEORIES (DURKHEIM, PARSONS, JAMES,
  DEWEY, BALDWIN, ARGELL) -- ATTEMPTS TO EXPLAIN
  THE PHENOMENA OF CHANGE IN TERMS OF DESCRIBING
  INTERRELATED ORGANISMIC ACTIVITIES (FUNCTIONS OR
  EVENTS) THAT THE ELEMENTS OF A SYSTEM UNDERGO
  DURING ITS EXISTENCE

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CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE - 3

• CONFLICT THEORIES (MARX, SIMMUEL, WEBER, COSER,
  DAHRENDORF) -- SUGGESTS THAT CONFLICT AND
  COMPETITIVE CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO OR CAUSE
  CHANGE AND ARE A MAJOR SOURCE OF CHANGE
• CYCLIC THEORIES -- SUGGEST THAT SYSTEMS FOLLOW A
  LIFE CYCLE PATTERN OF CHANGE OR A SOMEWHAT
  REPEATED PATTERN OF CHANGE

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CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE - 4

• SYMBOLIC INTERACTION THEORIES -- AN INTERPRETIVE
  PERSPECTIVE INVOLVING USE OF WORLDVIEWS FOR THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON VALUES, DESIRABILITY OF
  CHANGE, AND SHARED VISIONS (FOR EXAMPLE,
  STRATEGIES AND GOALS)
• COMPLEXITY THEORY IMPLIES THAT AS SOCIETY
  DEVELOPS OVER TIME, IT GROWS IN COMPLEXITY

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CLASSICAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIETAL CHANGE - 5

• CHAOS THEORY AS SOCIETY GROWS IN COMPLEXITY,
  CHAOS IN ONE OR MORE AREAS ALSO GROWSUNLESS
  CHAOS IS MANAGED, IT CAUSES SOCIETY TO BIFURCATE,
  COLLAPSE, OR RADICALLY CHANGE FROM ONE ERA TO
  ANOTHER
• REACTION THEORY VIEWS CHANGE AS A COUNTER TO A
  PREVIOUS CHANGE

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 1

• SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT (CHANGE) COMES IN MANY FORMS
• MOSTLY, CHANGE ANALYSIS BEGINS WITH SOME FORM OF
  CATEGORIZATION SCHEME OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
  CONTEXT UNDER STUDY
• CHANGE IS SELDOM LINEAR
• CHANGE IS NORMAL
• TO FORECAST THE FUTURE, ONE MUST FIRST UNDERSTAND
  CHANGE

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 2

• EVOLUTIONARY (TREND-BASED) CHANGE THAT OCCURS
  WHEN SOMETHING -
• IMPROVES OR GETS WORSE
• CHANGES DIRECTION
• CHANGES THE ROLES OF PEOPLE
• FOLLOWS OVER TIME AN EVOLUTIONARY GROWTH CURVE
• CO-EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE THAT OCCURS IN A DYNAMIC
  FASHION RESULTING FROM COOPERATION, POWER
  STRUGGLES, COMPETITION, PLANS AND PLANNING

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 3

• ACCELERATING CHANGE THAT PICKS UP SPEED OVER
  TIME (CURRENT ERA)
• TAKEOVER CHANGE THAT TAKES OVER FROM THE MOST
  RECENT WAY OF OPERATING (WHEN A NEW BOSS COMES
  ABOARD, A COMPANY IS SOLD, COMPETITION COMES OUT
  WITH A RADICALLY NEW PRODUCT, ETC.)
• BREAKTHROUGH CHANGE THAT OCCURS AFTER SOMETHING
  NEW IS INVENTED OR CREATED AND INTRODUCED

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 4

• INJECTION CHANGE THAT OCCURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS
  INJECTED BY SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAT FORCES
  ALTERATIONS (NEW TECHNOLOGY, NEW SET OF GOALS,
  ETC.)
• RENOVATION CHANGE THAT RESULTS -
• FROM UP-GRADING OR CORRECTING FLAWS
• WHEN A NEW STRATEGY SHIFTS THE FOCUS OF THE
  ORGANIZATION AND PEOPLE ROLES OR WHEN A COMPANY
  BENDS TO WORKER OR CUSTOMER DEMANDS)

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 5

• PROBLEM SOLVING CHANGE THAT RESULTS FROM
  CORRECTING EXISTING PROBLEMS
• BIFURCATING CHANGE THAT OCCURS WHEN A SYSTEM
  SPLITS AND WENDS IT WAY THEREAFTER ALONG TWO OR
  MORE SEPARATE PATHS
• INFUSION THEORY CHANGE THAT AFFECTS SOCIETY,
  PEOPLE, THINGS, AND PROFESSIONS IN DIVERSE WAYS

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TYPES OF CHANGE - 6

• TRENDS A CURVILINEAR PATH OF CHANGE
• FORCES-OF-CHANGE A TREND OPERATING OR IMPACTING
  ON OTHER TRENDS TO CHANGE THEM
• ISSUES-OF-CHANGE FUTURE THREATS OR OPPORTUNITIES
  EMERGING FROM CHANGE
• BREAKTHROUGH CHANGE CHANGE THAT BREAKS THROUGH A
  TREND CURVE
• ALTERNATIVE CHANGE ALTERNATIVE TO A TREND

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DEALING WITH CHANGE - 1

• IN DEALING WITH CHANGE, AS WELL AS ITS
  FORECASTING, WERE MOST OFTEN INTERESTED IN
• HOW CHANGE EMERGES, EVOLVES, AND/OR DISSIPATES
  OVER A PERIOD OF TIME
• REASONS FOR CHANGE
• WHAT IS IMPACTED AS A RESULT OF CHANGE
• THE CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE
• HOW SOMETHING IS ALTERED

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KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CHANGE

• RATE, MAGNITUDE, DIRECTION
• PARAMETERS AND FOCUS
• TREND AND TREND PATH
• SHAPE AND CHARACTERISTICS
• CAUSE AND EFFECT
• WHEN A TURNING POINT COULD OCCUR
• WHAT TYPE OF CHANGE AND WHEN A RESULT OF CHANGE
  COULD OCCUR

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REASONS FOR CHANGE

• PRECURSOR OR TREND PATH
• CHANGE TRIGGER -- ROOT CAUSE
• FORCES-OF-CHANGE CHANGE DRIVER, OR ENGINE
  POWERING CHANGE
• WHAT OR WHO IS CONTROLLING THE CHANGE
• WHY CHANGE IS OCCURRING

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QUESTIONS RESULTING FROM CHANGE

• MAGNITUDE DURATION OF CHANGE?
• EFFECTS WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, WHO, HOW?
• IMPACTS CONSEQUENCES?
• PROBLEMS (NEGATIVES) BENEFITS (POSITIVES) POSED
  BY THE CHANGE?
• WHO BENEFITS VERSUS WHO PAYS?
• WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE DIFFERENTLY AS A RESULT OF
  THE CHANGE?
• WILL A PARADIGM SHIFT EMERGE?

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RESPONSES TO CHANGE - 1

• WAIT FOR IMPACT THEN REACT
• FORECAST TO ANTICIPATE CHANGE AND PROACT
• MINIMIZE/AVOID THREAT IMPACTS
• FIND MAXIMIZE OPPORTUNITIES CAUSED BY CHANGE
• IDENTIFY AND DEVELOP STRATEGIC/POLICY OPTIONS

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RESPONSES TO CHANGE - 2

• BE FEARFUL OF OR EAGERLY GREET CHANGE
• WORK TO FORESTALL OR PREVENT CHANGE
• WORK TO FOSTER OR ENCOURAGE CHANGE
• BE STRESSED/DISPLACED BY CHANGE
• PLAN FOR AND MANAGE CHANGE
• OBTAIN BENEFITS OF CHANGE

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SWOTS

• LONG-RANGE/STRATEGIC PLANNING MOST OFTEN STARTS
  WITH SWOTS FORECASTING ITS A TOOL FOR
  IDENTIFYING FORECASTING NEEDED CHANGE BY
  ASSESSING
• RECENT PAST STRENGTHS
• RECENT PAST WEAKNESSES
• FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
• FUTURE THREATS
• TO DETERMINE IMPLIED STRATEGIES

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SUMMARY

• CHANGE DEFINED TO MAKE DIFFERENT
• SYSTEM DEFINEDA GROUP OF INTERACTING,
  INTERRELATED, OR INTERDEPENDENT ELEMENTS FORMING
  A COLLECTIVE ENTITY
• SYSTEM CHANGE, INVOLVES CHANGING THE WAY IN WHICH
  PARTS OF A SYSTEM INTERACT, THUS CHANGING THE
  FUTURE OF THE SYSTEM
• CHANGE IS A SIGNIFICANT ALTERATION OR DISRUPTION
  IN A SYSTEMS FUTURE EXPECTATION PATTERN

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SUMMARY - 2

• SYSTEMS THEORY ADDRESSES WAYS SYSTEMS CHANGE,
  OPERATE, AND ALTER THEIR PATH INTO THE FUTURE
• TO CHANGE A SYSTEM, CHANGE
• SYSTEM ELEMENTS (ADD, ALTER. DELETE) THAT
  INTERACT
• STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
• INTERACTIVE PROCESSES
• BY SUBSTITUTING ONE THING FOR ANOTHER

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SUMMARY - 3

• THE CONTEXT OF A SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE CHANGED
• THE PURPOSE CAN BE REDEFINED,
• THE IDENTITY OF A PARTICIPATING ELEMENT CAN BE
  REDEFINED, OR
• THE PERSPECTIVE ONE TAKES ON THE SYSTEM CAN BE
  ALTERED (REFRAMED)

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BIBLIOGRAPHY gtAdizes, I. (1992). Mastering
change. Santa Monica, CA Adizes
Institute. gtChirot, Daniel (1994). How societies
change. Thousand Oaks, California Pine Forge
Press. gtEtzioni,Amitai (1973). Social change
sources, patterns and consequences. New York NY
Basic Books. gtLauer, R. H. (1982). Perspectives
on social change. Boston Allyn and Bacon, Inc.
gtVago, Steven (1999). Social change. Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey Prentice Hall.