SAFETY

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SAFETY MOBILITY OVERVIEWThoughts on the
Future Alan E. Pisarski

• AAA SAFETY FOUNDATION
• Oct. 2005

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Thoughts on the future

• Setting a context for
• Human Factors
• Vehicles
• Infrastructure Systems

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THE BROADEST ISSUE

• WHAT IS THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN OUR
  SOCIETY?
• Changes with societys structure
• Changes with incomes and economy
• Changes with age and family structure
• Changes with education
• Changes with goals personal and other
• HOW DO WE MAKE SAFETY
• A MAJOR PART OF IT?

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FOR MOST THINGS IN SOCIETY DEMOGRAPHY IS
DESTINY PERHAPS THE CENTRAL TRUTH IN
TRANSPORTATION AND VEHICLE SAFETY
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TRANSPORTATION

• THE COLLISSION OF DEMOGRAPHY WITH GEOGRAPHY
• THE INTERACTION OF DEMOGRAPHY WITH ECONOMICS AND
  TECHNOLOGY

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We Have Survived A Difficult Period

• The baby boomers coming of age ---- working age
  and driving age
• Women joining the labor force in vast numbers
• Extraordinary growth in just-in-time freight
• Extraordinary growth in foreign trade
• This has almost paralyzed action
• A sisyphean challenge
• NOW WE HAVE NEW CHALLENGES

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Theres Greater Stability in Future Travel Demand

• More Stable
• Licenses/Vehicles
• Workers
• Population Households
• Migration

• Sources of Change
• Incomes
• Locations
• Immigrants
• Aging

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New Forces Of Change

• DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY
• IMMIGRATION
• THAT OLD VILLAIN AFFLUENCE
• LACK OF SKILLED WORKERS
• DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES
• GLOBALIZATION OF ALMOST EVERYTHING

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END OF THE BOOM

• 1980-90
• 18.5 MILLION WORKERS
• 1990-2000
• 13.3 MILLION WORKERS
• Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

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40 year trend in Mode Use millions of commuters
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Theres more to transportation than just
commuting!

• COMMUTING (20 of local psgr travel)
• OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL
• TOURISM
• SERVICES (power/phone/cable/sewer/water)
• PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov. services)
• URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT
• THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL
• THRU FREIGHT TRAVEL
•  

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Congestion is Getting Worse In Cities of All Sizes
Very Large 3 M Large 1 M - 3 M Medium 500
K - 1 M Small Below 500 K
Source TTI Tim Lomax
Hours per Traveler
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The great loss from congestion is not the extra
three minutes it takes to get home

• HOUSEHOLDS
• Its the decline in the number of jobs I could
  reach in ½ hr!
• Its the decline in the number of affordable
  homes accessible to my work!
• Its the decline in the assurance of arriving on
  time!

• BUSINESSES
• Its the decline in the number of workers within
  ½ hr of my employment site!
• Its the decline in the number of suppliers
  customers within ½ hr of my business!
• Its the decline in shipment reliability!

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What about tourism and long distance travel?

• Conflicts between visitations and preservation
• loving things to death.
• National Parks being shifted to Transit?
• We drive to where we want to walk
• Speed and cost improvements
• A world of continued security threats?

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The Focus Is On Big Metros

• 60 of population in big metros (2000)
• 1960 34 areas over 1 million
• 1990 39 areas over 1 million
• 2000 50 areas over 1 million
• 60/20/20 big metro/metro/rural
• Now 12 areas over 5 meg 100 million
• Focus of national issues is in big metros
• but growth is rural donut metros

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Half of pop in suburbs
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Forces Favoring Continued Dispersal

• OLDER POPULATIONS MOVE LESS
• HOME OWNERS MORE STABLE
• 70 MULTIWORKER HOUSEHOLDS
• AFFLUENCE FAVORS SUBURBS
• TREND TO SOUTH AND WEST (82)
• FEWER HOUSEHOLDS FORMED
• DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES

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DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES

• ALL GROUND TRANSPORT
• AIR TRANSPORT
• OVERNIGHT DELIVERY
• TELEPHONE/CELLPHONE
• RADIO/TELEVISION
• COMPUTER
• INTERNET
• Anti-dispersal tech? -- the elevator!

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Long Term Driving-Related Trends
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WE ARE AT VEHICLE SATURATION?
POPULATION TO VEHICLE RATIO 1900-1995
2.6
1.3
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THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY HAS MORE TO GO!
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Perhaps the greatest transportation technological
innovation of the last half of the century
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Creates a vehicle fleet thats hard to replace
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Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income -
2001
USA
FFX
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Transportation Spending by Workers/hh
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Work Force Issues

• Older workers in labor force
• Even more females in labor force
• Even more variable schedules
• Work hours a lot like part time
• Skills matches more spreading out
• Amenities-based employment

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Flattening Age Trends
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Almost a perfect 4 part split
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Another 4 part split
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VMT/DRIVER - Male
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VMT/DRIVER - Male
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VMT/DRIVER - Male
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FEMALE VMT/DRIVER SAME PICTURE
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The immigrant population quickly looks like other
commuters
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Heavy carpooling shifts quickly
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The Personal Vehicle And Our Future

• A More/Less Affluent Pop?
• A Higher/Lower Density Pop?
• Auto use more/less affordable?
• Age distribution more/less oriented to the auto?

• Longer/shorter Trip length?
• Purpose changes?
• Freight more/less valuable ?
• Freight more/less time sensitive?
• Destinations more/less dispersed?

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WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?

• MORE AFFLUENCE
• LOWER DENSITY
• AUTO AFFORDABILITY
• AUTO PRONE AGE
• AUTO TRIP PURPOSE
• DISPERSED DESTINATIONS
• HIGHER FREIGHT VALUE
• MORE TIME SENSITIVITY
• DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY

• More
• Less
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More

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Infrastructure Issues

• Feds - an unreliable partner
• A new functional classification
• Re-defining failure
• Retrofitting the system
• 1/3rd of fatalities facility related?
• Is it The wrong question!

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Technology and its users

• Here Now!
• Transparency
• Staged Learning (radio a distraction!)
• Implementation
• User acceptance
• Institutional acceptance
• Shifts in roles public/private

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The nexus of interactions
SOCIO-POLITICAL PATTERNS
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
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BIG INTERACTION ISSUES

• TRUCKS VS CARS
• SAFETY VS FUEL EFFICIENCY
• TECHNOLOGY VS OLDER USERS
• YOUNGER DRIVERS VS OLDER
• KNOWN ROUTES VS LOST
• LONG TRIPS VS SHORT
• GOVT VS PRIVATE
• CONTROL VS FREEDOM
• INSTITUTIONS VS INDIVIDUALS
• CULTURE CLASH

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CULTURE CLASH

• NEW IDEA! OBEY TRAFFIC LIGHTS!
• FAST VS SLOW
• CAREFUL VS CARELESS
• VARYING SENSE OF ROLE OF RULES
• EXPERIENCE ELSEWHERE?
• DOES GOVT CONTRIBUTE TO LACK OF RESPECT? E.G.
• SILLY SPEED LIMITS?
• STOP SIGNS AS SPEED BUMPS?

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Shifts in roles

• Shift from road-way based to on-board tech
• shift from public cost and responsibility to
  user
• shifts between vehicle producer and vehicle
  operator
• New rules?
• Tech-driven or liability-driven?

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A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND
RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY

• KEYS
• Personal Vs Mass
• On-demand Vs Scheduled
• Private Vs Public services
• Self-operated Vs Managed
• Time sensitive Vs Cost sensitive
• Security issues

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Making the vehicle a better citizen!

• Around a hundred years and we still act like its
  a passing fad
• Most seriously re pedestrian interactions
• Vehicle interactions
• Trucks
• Pedestrians
• Vehicle types and operating regimes
• Parking

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Vehicle Pedestrian Interactions

• We drive to where we want to walk
• More separation
• More controls
• Parking/malls/markets/strip
• More vehicle-free zones?
• Spending more?

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Making the case for safety

• Safety costs 3-4x congestion costs
• 200b/yr excluding intangible losses
• quantify and expand discussion
• Planning is more than Air Quality compliance
• SAFTEA-LU has added safety and economic
  development
• Provide Safety Assessment and Planning tools

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The AASHTO SHSP

• Goal 10-15 reduction in fatalities and injuries
• Proposed 22 areas
• 15.3B cap cost
• 370M annual cost
• 12 -15,000 lives/yr
• 1,000,000 injuries

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A New Plan for Planning for States And MPOs

• MEET SAFETY NEEDS
• SUPPORT ECON DEVELOPMENT
• ASSURE SECURITY
• MAINTAIN MOBILITY/RELIABILITY
• SERVE AGING POPULATIONS
• SERVE LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS

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Measurement is pathetic

• Loss of denominators (CFS NPTS)
• What shares of VMT should functional classes
  have?
• VMT by Age by func class?
• New functional classes needed?
• Accident potentials
• Near-miss observations
• International comparisons!

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tidbits

• Older groups tend to be the ones with the older
  vehicles effects?
• Training to get a CDL has taught my son what
  trucks can and cannot do and has made him a
  better driver of his personal vehicle -How do we
  capitalize on that?
• Are the annoying and dangerous people who cut you
  off just believing their side view mirror?

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Is Our Transportation System In Place?

• A nation that by the end of the decade can
  expect
• Another 30 million people
• And probably as many vehicles
• And another 3 trillion in GDP
• Cannot say that its transportation work is done!
• WE ADD A CANADA EACH DECADE!

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Thank you!

• Alan E. Pisarski
• 703 941-4257
• alanpisarski.com

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Efficiency in transportationBEWARE!

• A Very Dangerous Word
• THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
• The key to all transportation is the efficiency
  of the users not the vehicles
• Thats why trucks not trains cars not buses
• School bus efficiency vs students !
• One colossal pizza delivery per night per
  neighborhood is efficient!
• THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN
  WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

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of drivers in pre-1988 vehicles

• Aging population tend to be the ones with the
  aging vehicles

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Work Mode Shares USA More of the Same?

• Transit sort-of holds 5
• Carpool up share down
• Walking declines again
• Work at home (22 incr.) passes walking
• SOV increase almost exceeds of workers as in 90
• But more variability

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WHAT ARE THE ISSUES

• THE SEARCH FOR SKILLED WORKERS
• AGING POPS NEEDS/DEMANDS
• RECOGNIZING CHANGING CHARACTER OF DEMAND
• NICHINESS OF DEMAND
• ROLE IN SOCIETY
• A MEASUREMENT SYSTEM THAT WORKS

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A key to the future?
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Going forward

• The great Commuter boom is behind us
• Most of the determinants of travel will be more
  stable in the future
• Racial and Ethnic Minorities will be a major
  source of travel growth in the future
• Immigrant populations will be a major source of
  growth
• When will the Democratization of Mobility be
  Complete?

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DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS TO WATCH

• Immigrant arrivals?
• Where do immigrants go?
• Minorities mobility?
• Where do aging baby-boomers go?
• Multiple home ownership?

• Even more women in workplace?
• Work by gt65 pop?
• Workplace patterns?
• Trip chains