Looking Backward: How Childhood Experiences Impact a Nation

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Looking Backward How Childhood Experiences
Impact a Nations Wealth Daniel Trefler Rotman
School of Management
Rotman Life-Long Learning Lectures 2003 February
13, 2012
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Introductory Notes

• Childrens issues play a surprising role in
  Canadian productivity, particularly in the set of
  policies we need to make Toronto the wealthiest
  city in North America and Canada the richest
  jurisdiction in the world.
• Having studied the range of policies needed to
  meet these goals, I now understand that there is
  no single policy, no magic bullet that will
  propel us forward. Instead, there is a set of
  complementary policies, policies that reinforce
  one another, that must be put into place. Several
  of these policies involve investing in people and
  that is how I come to early childhood research.

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Introductory Notes

• By the time I have finished I hope to have
  persuaded you of three facts
• Our understanding of why early childhood
  interventions are successful is based on
  hard-nosed science. In the last decade, research
  on animal models and fundamental human biological
  processes have revolutionized our understanding
  of ourselves and placed early development issues
  at the forefront.
• Cost effective investments in people are ones
  targeted early on in the life course.
• Early childhood interventions are a touchstone
  for many important productivity-enhancing
  policies that this country must implement if it
  is to become the worlds best place to live.

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Introductory Notes

• Overview of talk
• Human capital formation, especially a university
  education, is fundamental in the new economy. I
  will use this as an extended example of how early
  childhood experiences force us to rethink
  post-secondary education policy.
• I will review just three hard scientific findings
  that shed light on the role of early childhood
  education. These are early brain plasticity, the
  stress system, and serotonin metabolism.
• I will return to the broader question of how
  childhood interventions complement a host of
  productivity-enhancing policies that Canada must
  consider if it is to become the most desirable
  location in the world in which to live.

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Part 1. Post-Secondary Education Policy
Why do poor teens fail to enroll in
post-secondary institutions?
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Human Capital is strongly associated with growth
Source Authors calculations based on PWT and
Barro-Lee
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Canadian Post-Secondary Participation Rates by
Income Evidence of Credit Constraints or Lack
of Demand?
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Teens From Poor Families
Teens From Rich Families

• Why the difference poor early childhood
  experiences limit demand?
• Tamara Knighton and Sheba Mirza, Postsecondary
  Participation The Effects of Parents Education
  and Household Income Education Quarterly Review,
  2002, Vol. 8(3). Poor (Rich) means in the
  bottom (top) quartile of the after-tax household
  income distribution.

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U.S. Post-Secondary Enrollment for Bright
TeensAfter adjusting for early experiences,
income does not matter

• Bright Teen Top third of 12 year old students
  who took the High Armed Forces Qualifying Test
  (AFQT).
• Source Heckman and Carneiro, Human Capital
  Policy NBER working paper.

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Additional Notes

• I can do a similar analysis for
• High school graduation
• Grade 10 math streaming
• Readiness to learn in JK
• Cognitive and non-cognitive test scores at the
  earliest ages.

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High/Scope Perry Preschool Project - major
findings at age 27
Early Childhood Interventions Perry Preschool
Program
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Sample consists of disadvantaged, low-IQ
children, ages 3-4, from Ypsilanti, Michigan.
Children were provided with an enriched
environment during ages 3-4 and then followed,
along with a control group, for 35 years.
Source Schweinhart et al. (1993)
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Readiness to Learn Program in Toronto
Social Competence
Cognitive Development
Source McCain and Mustard, Three Years After
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ROI for Human Capital Investments During the Life
Course

• Human capital accumulation is a dynamic process.
  The skills acquired in one stage of the life
  cycle affect learning at the next stage.
• Remediation of early childhood opportunities is
  very expensive.

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Part 2. Basic Science

• What explains why
• educational interventions
• are more cost effective
• early in the life course?
• Brain Plasticity
• The Stress System
• Serotonin Metabolism

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Brain Plasticity (2)
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The Stress System Coping With Challenges (1)
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Mean Swimming Distance to the Platform
Non-Handled Rats
Distance (In Metres)
Handled Rats
Age (In Months)
Source Sapolsky, 1992, figure 12.8
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Evidence on IQ Romanian Orphans
VINELAND MEASURES
Note that institutional adoptions lt6 months do
much better than gt6 months
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Evidence on Aggression Knock-Out Rhesus Macaques

• Control group Offspring raised by biological
  mother display the usual aggressive behaviour.
• Treatment group Offspring adopted by highly
  nurturing mothers displayed healthy exploration
  of their environment, coped better with stress,
  and were less upset about weaning. There were
  also marked improvements in serotonin metabolism.

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Part 3. Policy Complementarities
Early childhood interventions complement
other productivity-enhancing policies that
Canada must adopt.
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Early Childhood
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Human Resources Canadas Skill Shortage
Source Education and Knowledge Some
Perspectives from 21st Century Manufacturing,
Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters
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Early Childhood
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Early Childhood Research as a Touchstone

• Universities and tuition
• Cities invest in people, not infrastructure.
• Do so through community-based interventions
  (e.g., schools)
• Added bonus reduce crime and poverty.
• Immigration
• stress, acculturation
• Human resource development a coworker who
• performs poorly in the stressful world of
  high-tech innovations,
• who shows little curiosity,
• reacts aggressively,
• and is not particularly bright?
• International trade
• We do not want workers whose skills compete with
  those of low-wage foreigners.

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How Are We Doing In Canada?
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Suggested Readings

• Pedro Carneiro and James Heckman, Human Capital
  Policy National Bureau of Economic Research
  Working Paper 9495, February 2003.
• This paper evaluates the cost effectiveness of
  investments in people at various stages of the
  life course. Heckman is a Nobel Laureate who
  specializes in evaluating training programs.
  Available on the web at http//www.nber.org/papers
  /w9495.
• Bruce McEwen, Stress and the Brain in States of
  Mind New Discoveries about How Our Brains Make
  Us Who We Are edited by Roberta Conlan, pages
  81-102.
• The entire book was written by the leading
  scientists in the field and then re-written by
  journalists in order to make it a pleasure to
  read.
• Margaret McCain and Fraser Mustard, Government of
  Ontario Early Years Study Reversing the Real
  Brain Drain, April 1999.
• Available on the web at http//www.gov.on.ca/CSS/p
  age/services/oey/earlyYearsStudy.pdf.