Census Data and Montana Indian Reservations

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Census Data and MontanaIndian Reservations

• Pam HarrisBureau ChiefCensus and Economic
  Information CenterMontana Department of Commerce

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CEIC Who We Are

• Partnership with U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census
  Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis to
  disseminate Montana data collected by federal
  agencies
• Cvs.C staff provide demographic and economic data
  and analysis, GIS support, technical assistance
  and training.
  
• Assist Montana businesses, communities schools,
  and all government agencies to access and use
  this information for decision-making.

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Why Census Data?

• Census data is unique
• Only source for small area data (reservation,
  cities/towns, tribal census tracts, etc.)
  
• Only source which shows characteristics for the
  population such as age, race, gender, educational
  attainment, income, labor force, types of
  households, etc.
• Census results are used to distribute almost 200
  billion annually in federal, state, local, and
  tribal funds

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Examples of American Indian Federal Programs
Relying on Census Data

• Workforce Investment Program
• Community Development Block Grants (CDBG)
• Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants and
  Children (WIC)
  
• Temporary Assistance to Needy Families
• Low Income Energy Assistance

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How can data help?

• Census data helps tribal planners evaluate
  conditions on their reservations and in their
  communities.
  
• Tribal governments, states, cities, federal
  agencies, and businesses all need current
  information to make critical decisions.
  
• Data can help decide what services are needed and
  how to distribute funding for housing, economic
  development, health care, and other programs that
  benefit veterans, children, families, the elderly
  and the society as a whole.
• Census data is an important tool for tribal
  government decision-making and could result in
  improved utility services, new housing, job
  training, better school facilities, or a new
  health clinic to benefit you, your family, your
  community or reservation.

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More current data coming..

• American Community Survey (ACS) will replace the
  decennial census long form questionnaire
  producing the socio-economic data every year
  instead of every 10 years.
• Example Workforce Investment Act of 1998
  requires information about American Indian and
  Alaska Native households to support training and
  employment activities. ACS will provide this
  critically important information.
• ACS has been endorsed by the Indian and Native
  American Employment and Training Coalition and
  the National Congress of American Indians.
  
• Flathead and Lake Counties have been a successful
  part of the early ACS testing for the last six
  years.
  

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Census 2010

• Pilot project in South Dakota, Cheyenne River
  Reservation
  
• An accurate and complete count of the population
  in 2010 will enable American Indians to receive
  the correct share of federal and state resources
  that are based on census data
• Pilot project is testing new counting methods
  setting standard for how the Census Bureau counts
  American Indians all over the U.S.
  
• American Indians have been undercounted in
  previous censuses, and the mutual goal of the
  Census Bureau and the American Indian community
  is to reverse that trend in 2010.

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Montana Reservations
Accurate Data
Federal Statistical Agencies
Statistics
EconomicDevelopers
Grant Writers
SocialServiceAgencies
Planners
for Montana Reservations
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Summary

• Federal monies are getting harder to obtain. Data
  users need to be smarter about using the
  information available to help secure essential
  funding for tribal programs.
• Without accurate, reliable, and current
  information, detailed analysis of Indian
  Reservations Economies will be more difficult.
  
• Need to work together, take ownership of the
  data, to ensure that the American Community
  Survey and the 2010 Census are the best they can
  be, which will ultimately benefit everyone.

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Analyzing Montanas Indian Reservations
Economies

• Susan Ockert
• Senior Research Economist,
• Census and Economic Information Center, Montana
  Department of Commerce

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2000 Census Data
SOURCE U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, CENSUS 2000
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Population by American Indian and by Tribe
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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American Indian Population Urban vs. Rural
Urban 1,000 people per square mile
Metropolitan Areas Billings, Great Falls,
Missoula
Concentrations of population, housing, and
commercial structures that are
identifiable by name but have no legal authority.
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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What is an economy?
Jobs ? Income
Businesses

• Public Goods
• Zoning/Land Use
• Public Finance
• Public Safety

Consumers
Government
Create Wealth

• Marketing
• Customer Service
• Accounting
• Management

Redistribute Wealth
Source Understanding Your Communitys Economic
Base, University of Missouri Extension, http//
muextension.missouri.edu
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Current Reservation Environment

• Population
• Faster growth rate
• Younger median age
• Education
• Fewer with degrees
• Higher drop out rate

• Social
• Larger percent of population uses food stamps
• Higher pregnancy rate
• Higher alcohol treatment need

Sources See last page
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Current Reservation Economies

• Higher unemployment
• More poverty
• Lower per capita income
• Lower wages
• Lower housing values
• Smaller private sector

Sources See last page
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Types of Jobs

• 33 of jobs on the reservation are Government
  compared with 15 of jobs in the country as a
  whole
  
• 44 of jobs on the reservation are in the Private
  Sector compared with 80 of jobs in the nation

Source Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,
fedgazette, March 2006
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Business Environment
NOTE AI American Indian
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Business
Owners
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Threshold Analysis

• Central Place Theory - Population needed to
  support retail and service businesses
  
• Simple Analysis population and number of
  businesses
  
• Similar characteristics such as population
  location
  
• Does not take into account economies of scale
• Square footage
• Number of doctors in one facility
• Grocery store
• Health care
• Financial Institutions

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Grocery Stores
Number of Businesses
Number of Businesses using statewide threshold
of 2,725
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Health Care Doctors and Clinics
Number of Businesses
Number of Businesses using statewide threshold
of 509
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Financial Institutions
Number of Businesses
Number of Businesses using statewide threshold
of 1,227
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Implications

• Reservations are underserved in these private
  sectors
  
• Just Off the Reservation serving own population
  and reservation
  
• Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much
  larger region

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Location Quotient

• Determine if number of jobs are what a local
  economy should have to serve local needs
  
• Comparison of local employment to statewide for
  each industry
  
• 1 serving more than local
  
  
• MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and
  Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in
  Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Fort Peck Reservation
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Blackfeet Reservation
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Comparisons
State Most over served Mining except Oil Ga
s at 5.7 Most under served Textile Mills at .0
6
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Implications

• Money is leaving the reservations to purchase
  retail goods and consumer services
  
• There is not an adequate supply of financial
  services on the reservations
  
• There is not an adequate supply of doctors,
  clinics, etc. on the reservations

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Diversity of Economy

• Hachman Index measures diversity of economy
  employment spread out among many different
  industries compared to benchmark
  
• Montana or United States
• More diversity reduces communitys vulnerability
  to economic downturns
  
• Closer to 1 mean more diversity
• MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and
  Analysis has calculated HI for each county in
  Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Hachman Index

• Fort Peck Reservation .24
• Blackfeet Reservation .14
• County Hachman Indices
• Lowest (Stillwater) .01
• Median .25
• (McCone, Phillips, Toole)
• Highest .66
• (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)

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Implications

• Reservation and county economies are not
  diverse
  
• One company towns

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Vibrancy of Economy

• Reference USA
• 921 Executive, Legislative and
• Other government support.
• Excludes
• Law enforcement, public health

NOTE Red is off the reservation
Sources Reference USA, www.referenceusa.com,
U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns,
2002 and 2003
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Productivity Measure of Efficiency
Average Output per Worker (IMPLAN)
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
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Compensation per Worker
Average Salary per Worker (IMPLAN)
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
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Reservation Natural Resources

• Montana Reservations compared to U.S.
  Reservations
  
• 13 of all acres of coal
• 12 of all oil and gas leases
• 5 of all coal royalties/revenues
• 5 of oil royalties/revenues

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Agriculture on the Reservation
Due to confidential information, only 6
reservations used
United States Department of Agriculture, National
Agricultural Statistics Service,
http//www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/ind
ex.asp
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Summary

• With legal and policy foundation and data
  collection
  
• Reservations have potential to expand private
  business sectors
  
• Reservations have natural resources, especially
  for energy generation, to use as economic
  engines
  
• American Indian farmers appear to have
  comparative advantage in farming

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Contact Information

• Susan Ockert
• Senior Research Economist
• [phone]
• sockert_at_mt.gov
• www.ceic.mt.govPowerPoint presentation
  available on CEICs web site at
  www.ceic.mt.gov/presentations.asp and MEDAs web
  site at www.medamembers.org/memdir.php

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• NOTES
• BA Bachelors and Advanced Degrees
• Pregnancy Rate Pregnancies per 1,000 teens, aged
  15-19
  
• Alcohol Treatment Need Index that includes
  alcohol mortality and alcohol-defined arrest
  rates
  
• SOURCES
• Reservation Data U.S. Census Bureau, Census
  2000 US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian
  Affairs, 2003 MT Department of Labor and
  Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005
• Population U.S. Census Bureau, Population
  Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates
  
• Unemployment MT Department of Labor and
  Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day
  Report 2005
  
• Per Capita US Department of Commerce, Bureau of
  Economic Analysis, 2003
  
• Poverty U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income
  Poverty Estimates, 2002
  
• Housing Value U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
• Median Age U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
• Food Stamps MT Department Public Health and
  Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005
  
• Pregnancies MT Department of Public Health and
  Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen
  Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000,
  November 2002
• Alcohol treatment Need MT Department of Public
  Health and Human Services, An Integrated
  Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for
  Montana, 2001
• Drop Out Office of Public Instruction, Montana
  High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity,
  2003-04 School Year
  
• Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American
  Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF)
  Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservations
  bytribe.xls
• Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary
  File 2, Matrix PCT1. www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_r
  ural_indian.xls