South Asia

1
South Asia

• A Region in Conflict

2
India and Pakistan

• The Kashmir Conflict

3
British Raj

• The British Raj refers to the British rule in the
  Indian subcontinent between 1858 and 1947
• Geographical extent included the regions of
  present day India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

4
Indian Independence Movement

• Involved a wide spectrum of Indian political
  organizations, philosophies, and movements which
  had the common aim of ending the British Raj as
  well as other colonial administrations in the
  Indian Subcontinent.
• The initial resistance to the movement can be
  traced back to the very beginnings of colonial
  expansion by the British East India Company, as
  early as the middle and late 1700s.
• The mainstream movement from the latter part of
  the 1800s was increasingly led by the Indian
  National Congress with prominent moderatist
  leaders seeking Dominion status within the
  commonwealth. 
• The end of WWI saw the Congress adopt the
  policies of nonviolent agitation and civil
  disobedience led by Gandhi.

5
Quit India Movement
The Quit India Movement (Bharat Chhodo Andolan or
the August Movement) was a civil disobedience
movement launched in India in August 1942 in
response to Mohandas Gandhi's call for immediate
independence.
6
The Partition of India

• Two self governing countries, India and Pakistan,
  legally came into existence at the stroke of
  midnight on August 15, 1947.
• The actual division between the two new dominions
  was done according to what has come to be known
  as the 3rd June Plan or Mountblatten Plan.

The Partition was a highly controversial
arrangement, and remains a cause of much tension
on the subcontinent today.
7
Kashmir Conflict

• India claims the entire state of Jammu and
  Kashmir and presently administers approximately
  half the region including most of Jammu, Kashmir
  Valley, Ladakh and the Siachen Glacier

8
Kashmir Conflict

• India's claim is contested by Pakistan which
  controls a third of Kashmir, mainly Azad Kashmir
  and the northern areas of Gilgit and Baltistan. 
  The Kashmiri region under Chinese control is
  known as Aksai Chin. In addition, China also
  controls the Trans-Karakoram Tract, also known as
  the Shaksam Valley, that was ceded to it by
  Pakistan in 1963.  The official stated stance of
  India is that Kashmir is an "integral part" of
  India, while the official stated stance of
  Pakistan is that Kashmir is a disputed territory
  whose final status can only be determined by the
  Kashmiri people, hoping the Kashmiri people will
  opt for Pakistan.

9
    Kashmir remains bitterly divided on the
ground two-thirds of it (known as the Indian
state of Jammu and Kashmir) compromising Jammu,
the Valley of Kashmir and the sparsely populated
Buddhist area of Ladakh are controlled by India
one-third is administered by Pakistan. This area
includes a narrow strip of land (Azad Kashmir and
the Northern Areas) compromising the Gilgit
Agency, and Baltistan and the former kingdoms of
Hunza and Nagar. Attempts to resolve the 'core
issue' through political discussion were
unsuccessful. In September 1965 war broke out
again between Islamabad and Delhi.
10
    The United Nations called for a yet another
cease-fire and peace was restored once again
following the Tashkent Declaration in 1966, by
which both nations returned to their original
positions along the demarcated line. After the
1971 war and the creation of independent
Bangladesh under the terms of the 1972 Simla
Agreement, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi of India
and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan agreed that
neither side would seek to alter the cease-fire
line in Kashmir, which was renamed as the Line of
Control, "unilaterally, irrespective of mutual
differences and legal interpretations".
11
    The whole Kashmir issue has caused
longstanding enmity between post-Colonial India
and newly created Muslim Pakistan. It arose as a
direct consequence of the partition and
independence of the Indian subcontinent in August
1947. The state of Jammu and Kashmir, which lies
strategically in the Northwest of the
subcontinent, bordering China and the former
Soviet Union, was a princely state ruled by
Maharaja Hari Singh. In geographical terms, the
Maharaja could have joined either of the two new
Dominions. Although urged by the Viceroy, Lord
Mountbatten, to determine the future of his state
before the transfer of power took place, Hari
Singh demurred.    The Kashmir Conflict has
taken place for almost 60 years, with the result
being 4 major wars and resulting in thousands of
casualties for both sides.
12
Kashmir ConflictIndian View

• For the UN Resolution mandating a plebiscite to
  be valid, Pakistan should first vacate its part
  of Kashmir.
• The Constituent Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir had
  unanimously ratified the Maharaja's instrument of
  Accession to India and had adopted a constitution
  for the state that called for a perpetual merger
  of the state with the Indian Union. India claims
  that this body was a representative one, and that
  its views were those of the Kashmiri people at
  the time.

13
Indian View Continued

• India does not accept the Two Nation Theory that
  forms the basis of Pakistan.
• The state of Jammu and Kashmir was made
  autonomous by the Article 370 of the Constitution
  of India, though this autonomy has since been
  reduced
• India alleges that most of the terrorists
  operating in Kashmir are themselves from Pakistan
  Administered Kashmir and that Pakistan has been
  involved in state sponsored terrorism.

14
Indian View Continued

• India states that despite Pakistan being named as
  an "Islamic Republic", India accuses Pakistan of
  being responsible for one of the worst genocide
  of Muslims when it allegedly killed millions of
  its own countrymen in East Pakistan in the 1971
  Bangladesh atrocities.
• The Indian Government believes that Pakistan has
  used the Kashmir issue more as "a diversionary
  tactic" from internal and external issues.

15
Kashmir ConflictPakistani View

• The popular Kashmiri insurgency demonstrates that
  the Kashmiri people no longer wish to remain
  within India. Pakistan suggests that this means
  that either Kashmir wants to be with Pakistan or
  independent.
• According to the two-nation theory by which
  Pakistan was formed, Kashmir should have been
  with Pakistan, because it has a Muslim majority.
  The "K" in Pakistan stands for Kashmir.

16
Kashmir Conflict Pakistani View

• Indian counterinsurgency tactics merit
  international monitoring of the Kashmir conflict,
  and the Indian Army has carried out human rights
  violations - including torture, rape and
  extrajudicial killings - against the Kashmiri
  people.
• The Kashmiri people have now been forced by the
  circumstances to rise against the alleged
  repression of the Indian army and uphold their
  right of self-determination through militancy.

17
Kashmir Conflict Peace in Sight?

• After intensive diplomatic efforts by other
  countries, India and Pakistan began to withdraw
  troops from the international border June 10,
  2002, and negotiations began again. Effective
  November 26, 2003, India and Pakistan have agreed
  to maintain a ceasefire along the undisputed
  International Border, the disputed Line of
  Control, and the Siachen glacier. This is the
  first such "total ceasefire" declared by both
  nuclear powers in nearly 15 years.

18
Kashmir Conflict Peace in Sight?

• In February 2004, Pakistan further increased
  pressure on Pakistanis fighting in
  Indian-administered Kashmir to adhere to the
  ceasefire. The nuclear-armed neighbours also
  launched several other mutual confidence building
  measures. Restarting the bus service between the
  Indian- and Pakistani- administered Kashmir has
  helped defuse the tensions between the countries.
  Both India and Pakistan have also decided to
  cooperate on economic fronts.

19
Kashmir Conflict Peace in Sight?

• On Dec. 5, 2006, Pakistani President Pervez
  Musharraf told an Indian TV channel that Pakistan
  would give up its claim on Kashmir if India
  accepted some of his peace proposals, including a
  phased withdrawal of troops, self-governance for
  locals, no changes in the borders of Kashmir, and
  a joint supervision mechanism involving India,
  Pakistan and Kashmir, the BBC reported. Musharraf
  also stated that he was ready to give up the
  United Nation resolutions regarding Kashmir.

20
U.S. Pakistan Relations

• U.S. Policy interests in Pakistan encompass awide
  range of issues, including
• Counterterrorism
• WMD Proliferation
• Regional Stability
• Human Rights and Democratization
• Economic Reforms
• Counternarcotics Ops (i.e. halt opium
  trafficking)?

21
U.S. Pakistan Relations

• These policies have been affected by several key
  developments in recent years.
• Proliferation and democracy related sanctions
• Kashmir conflict and associated nuclear issues
• The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on U.S.A.

22
9/11 and Pakistan

• In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, Pakistani
  President Pervez Musharraf ---under strong US
  diplomatic pressure---offered President Bush
  Pakistan's unstinted cooperation in the fight
  against terrorism.
• In response to Pakistan becoming the U.S.'s most
  important ally in the region, sanctions relating
  to Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests and 1999
  military coup were waived.

23
The Relationship Begins

• In October 2001, large amounts of U.S. Aid begin
  pouring in.
• In June 2004, President Bush designated Pakistan
  as a major non-NATO ally of the United States
• As a result of this relationship, revelations
  that Pakistan has been a source of onward nuclear
  proliferation to North Korea, Iran and Libya may
  complicate future Pakistan-US relations
• Pakistan has been instrumental in pivotal
  Al-Qaeda arrests, including Khalid Mohammed.

24
Complications Arise

• Pakistan has widely been speculated as the
  current home of Osama bin Laden
• Infiltrations across the Kashmiri Line of Control
  by insurgents continue to this day.
• Pakistan is known to be a base for numerous
  indigenous terrorist associations and the country
  continues to suffer from anti-Shia,
  anti-Christian and anti-Western terrorism (ex.
  Daniel Pearl) at home.

25
Pakistan-U.S. Cooperation

• Involve commercial sales of aircraft, weapons and
  associated military radar and electronics systems
  and joint military exercises
• Further complicated recently by the assassination
  of Benazir Bhutto.
• Bhutto assassination has recently cooled the
  relationship between US and Pakistan
• Newly elected Pakistan People's Party will change
  the scope of future relationships with US

26
Central Question Remains

• How can the United States curry favor with the
  army, which it needs for counterterrorism
  purposes, while simultaneously not alienating the
  average Pakistani, who increasingly sees us as
  the Great Satan?

27
The Peace Pipeline

• Major natural gas pipeline that would stretch
  from the fields of southern Iran to Pakistan and
  India

28
Scope of the Proposal

• The IPI would run 1660 miles, about 690 miles in
  Iran, 440 miles in Pakistan and 530 miles in
  India.
• Total investment of 7 billion dollars
• Will take five years to complete
• Has potential to be the mother of all confidence
  building measures between India and Pakistan

29
Background of Project

• Slow to get started due to disagreements in price
  structures between Iran, India and Pakistan and
  ongoing political conflicts and pressure from the
  U.S.
• India has in the past insisted on a seven year
  review cycle.
• Iran wanted a shorter review cycle, citing the
  perpetual changes in the energy market.

30
Pricing the Deal

• In January of 2007, the three parties made a
  trilateral agreement to adopt crude oil prices as
  the benchmark for determining the adjustments to
  gas prices.
• There is debate by experts whether this agreement
  will prove to be the best for all parties.
• Some experts think the best option is to agree on
  a structure whereby all sides agree on a specific
  oil price as the benchmark and then on a slope.

31
Proposed Price Structure

• Necessity of periodic review is irrefutable, the
  only question remains about an appropriate review
  cycle.
• Experts have recommended a 5 year review cycle
  it has the advantage of allowing sufficient time
  for periodic deliberations on changing gas prices
• Avoids frictions associated with a too quick
  review cycle that would make progress suffer from
  negotiations and renogiations.

32
U.S. Political Pressure

• American position not linked to economics.
• Driven by Washington's policy with Iran
• US wishes to isolate Iran, and such a deal would
  prove disastrous to their efforts
• US has made it clear to India and Pakistan that
  such a deal might have consequences, such as
  sanctions under the Iran-Libya sanctions act.
• US recently tried to scuttle the talks by
  offering India advanced nuke tech....but India
  denied the offer.

33
The Future?

• Peace Pipeline could be revamped into an
  economic consortium.
• The three countries could be linked with members
  of the Economic Cooperation Organization
• Example Turkmenistan's gas could also be
  exported to India and Pakistan through the IPI
  pipeline.
• By increasing the pool of regional members of
  such a consortium, the IPI glues the three
  countries into a greater web of cooperation.

34
TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad heads to Pakistan and India this week
to put the finishing touches on a controversial
deal to build a pipeline that would deliver
Iranian gas to both countries, Iran's
semi-official Fars news agency says. art.iran.gi.j
pg Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad waves
as he arrives Monday in Islamabad,
Pakistan. Ahmadinejad arrived in Islamabad on
Monday for a four-hour visit with newly elected
Prime Minister Reza Gilani and President Pervez
Musharraf, according to Pakistan's information
ministry. Later in the day, he heads to Sri Lanka
before traveling to New Delhi late Tuesday for a
short visit, according to Iran's state-run news
agency IRNA. The pipeline, if built, would be
about 2,700 kilometers (1,674 miles)
long. Pakistan and India, both key U.S. allies,
are under pressure from the United States not to
sign any kind of agreement with Iran.
35
Some observers have called the project "the
peace pipeline" because of its perceived impact
on reducing tension between India and Pakistan,
nuclear neighbors that have fought three wars,
two of them over the disputed Kashmir region.
Video Watch Ahmadinejad arrive in India The
gas pipeline project, which has been in
discussions for over a year, is aimed at
supplying Iranian natural gas to Pakistan and
India. The pipeline would run from Iran to India,
cutting through Pakistan. According to Fars,
Ahmadinejad's visit comes after Pakistani and
Indian energy ministers signed an agreement last
week, once they had resolved a major "bone of
contention" regarding the route of the gas
pipeline. "Now that all sides have calmed down,
President Ahmadinejad will discuss the 'Peace
Pipeline' at the highest levels during his visit
to the Sub-Continent," Fars said. Under the
agreement, the pipeline will run through 1,100
kilometers (682 miles) of Iran, 1,000 kilometers
(620 miles) of Pakistan and 600 kilometers (372
miles) of India, according to Fars.
36
"The pipeline will be capable of daily
transporting 150 million cubic meters of gas to
Pakistan and India -- 90 million cubic meters
will go to India and the rest will go to
Pakistan," Fars said. "The pipeline project was
initially estimated to cost 4.5 billion, but the
cost has been revised to around 7 billion." The
United States recently tried to scuttle the
pipeline by offering India advanced nuclear
technology to make up for the loss of Iranian
gas. But Fars reported that India recently
declared its readiness to participate in the
discussions on the pipeline after more than a
year. China -- Iran's largest trade partner
followed by India -- has previously said that it
would negotiate in India's place if New Delhi
withdraws from the project, according to Fars.
China borders Pakistan to the north. A top
adviser to the Iranian president spoke on the eve
of Ahmadinejad's visit about the importance of
oil and gas when it comes to putting Western
powers "in their place," according to Fars.
37
"Oil and gas are two elements of power at the
disposal of the Muslims," Gen. Yahya Safavi said
Sunday, according to Fars. "If it (the power) be
viewed properly (with wisdom) and within the
framework of the interests of Islam and Muslims,
one can then put the hegemonic powers back in
their place."
38
The Risks

• Geopolitical risks associated with IPI may be
  high
• But safety mechanisms exist that should decrease
  costs should any situations materialize
• These risks include
• State sponsored and grass roots terrorism in
  Pakistan
• Iran is an untested and has potential to be an
  unreliable supplier
• Proceeding with project may alienate U.S.

39
Mitigating the Risks

• Iran has agreed to supply India if Pakistan
  meddles with it's supply
• Iran will also discontinue exports to Pakistan if
  such a situation presents itself
• To keep Iran acting in good faith an
  international consortium of bankers and oil
  exporters have decided to back the project
• Despite U.S. Nuclear assistance to India it lacks
  both the political will and international support
  to do anything about it

40
India's Gain

• Will be highly beneficial to India's economic
  future
• The LNG provides an economically and
  environmentally sound solution to India's current
  energy problems
• Pipeline can provide necessary fuel to fertilizer
  and industrial sectors and may also revitalize
  struggling electricity market
• Will encourage foreign investment in India's
  infrastructure

41
Pakistan's Gain

• Much the same as India's
• Benefits of a stable power source in Pakistan
  will provide countless jobs for those who don't
  have them
• Employed individuals will hopefully be steered
  away from activities that would cause them to
  lose their employment and their newfound wealth
• Pipeline guaranteed to be profitable since high
  demand for gas not likely to subside anytime soon

42
Iran's Gain

• Will be able to demonstrate to the World their
  ability to maintain peace and prosperity in a
  troubled region
• LNG profits will hopefully become large enough to
  discourage Iran from causing trouble in the
  region
• Will be a huge publicity battle won for current
  Iranian Prime Minister

43
India's Diplomatic Future

• Doctor RK Pachauri, the father of the IPI
  Pipeline, recommends a course of quiet
  diplomacy for India's dealings with the pipeline
• Rather than pursuing the course of high profile
  debates, backdoor sessions should be held to
  discourage high profile headlines
• This allows India to alleviate the risk that U.S.
  Will also feel threatened by the project
• Also will allow India to discuss it's own
  security concerns that will not be held hostage
  by the ebb and flow of current Indian/Pakistani
  relations

44
India's Diplomatic Future

• India should be patient with it's negotiations in
  order to ensure a price for the gas that will be
  most beneficial to it's future
• As India and Pakistan go through the gauntlet of
  negotiations surrounding the IPI they should look
  back in history and mind the lessons learned by
  Europe in the 1970's

45
A New Union

• At the height of the Cold War in Europe most
  Europeans realized that piped gas from the Soviet
  Union would be beneficial for both parties in the
  long term
• The Soviet Union needed a market for it's gas,
  much like Iran does today...and Europe needed to
  import the gas much like India and Pakistan do
  today
• Europe and the Soviet Union accomplish this
  pipeline despite protests from U.S.
  administrations

46
A New Union

• By agreeing to keep economics separate from
  politics the economic ties established between
  Europe and the Soviet Union survived the fall of
  the Soviet Union and provided a cushion for the
  transformation of Europe and Russia
• For more than two decades this consistent supply
  of natural gas has fueled unprecedented growth in
  Europe
• This lesson from history should hearten those
  responsible for establishing the pipeline and
  providing the long term benefits that come with
  this state of economic interdependence

47
Pipeline of Peace

• The IPI, if it realizes it's potential, could go
  down as one of the greatest examples of peaceful
  economic cooperation in history
• And may forever be known as the Pipeline of Peace