Seasonal Climate Forecasting Communication issues and Future Model Developments

1
Seasonal Climate ForecastingCommunication issues
and Future Model Developments

• Presenter Neil Plummer
• National Climate Centre
• Lead Author Scott Power
• Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
• Ackowledgements
• D. Jones, P. Reid, R. Fawcett, NCC R.Whitaker
  (AMSAT)
• W. Drosdowsky, N. Nicholls, L. Chambers, O.
  Alves, BMRC
• T. Kestin formerly BMRC now NCAR

2

• Helping people use climate predictions prudently
• raising awareness of forecasts
• communicating probabilities uncertainty
• presenting information

Risk of confusing the terms El Niño with
drought
3
El Niño Rainfall
4
(No Transcript)
5
Communication

• Deliver services
• Raise awareness of services available
• Get feedback on existing services
• Get ideas for new services
• Build relationships
• Help people use the services
• Explain services
• Explain underpinning science
• Explain underpinning technology

6
Communication channels

• radio, TV, newspapers, the web, field days, phone
  calls, emails, public lectures, regular scheduled
  meetings, fax services, brochures, atlases,
  books, ...

7
Helping people to use the services

• educational glossies, field days, public
  addresses,
• media interviews, web-based information,
  conferences, articles in rural magazines,
• Staff training (marketing, media liaison,
  communication)

8
use consistent terminology in forecasts - use
numbers - words can be vague
9
Impediments to the use of seasonal climate
predictions

• limited skill
• users locked in to alternative approaches
• not relevant to users decisions
• other factors have greater weight in decisions
  (e.g. price fluctuations)
• dont fully understand or trust information
• user resistance or misuse (eg., user
  conservatism)
• cognitive illusions (eg., probability illusions)

10
Framing effect

• If doctors were told there is a mortality rate of
  7 within 5 years for a certain operation, they
  hesitated to recommend it to their patients.

11
Framing effect

• If doctors were told there is a mortality rate of
  7 within 5 years for a certain operation, they
  hesitated to recommend it to their patients.
• BUT, if they were told it had a survival rate
  after 5 years of 93, they were more inclined to
  recommend it to their patients.

12
Availability

• Which of the following causes more deaths in the
  USA each year?
• Stomach cancer
• Motor vehicle accidents

13
Availability

• Which of the following causes more deaths in the
  USA each year?
• Stomach cancer
• Motor vehicle accidents
• Most respondents select motor vehicle accidents,
  but stomach cancer causes twice as many deaths.

14
Availability

• Which of the following causes more deaths in the
  USA each year?
• Stomach cancer
• Motor vehicle accidents
• Most respondents select motor vehicle accidents,
  but stomach cancer causes twice as many deaths.
• The availability of media stories about motor
  vehicle deaths biases our perception of the
  frequency of events.

15
Overconfidence

• Select from each pair the most frequent cause of
  death (and decide how confident you are)?
• All accidents, or heart attacks?
• Homicide, or suicide?
• Breast tumour, or diabetes?

16
Overconfidence

• Select from each pair the most frequent cause of
  death (and decide how confident you are)
• All accidents, or heart attacks?
• Homicide, or suicide?
• Breast tumour, or diabetes?
• First alternative is selected with great
  confidence by most respondents.
• The correct answer is the second in each pair.

17

• Empirical or statistical prediction
• relatively straightforward, cheap, transparent
• use relationships between variables in historical
  record
• assumes that past relationships will hold in
  future
• chaos ? imperfect relationships ? probabilities
  used in forecasts
• beware complex implausible schemes
• statistical forecasts will be important for
  years to come
• statistical forecast systems provide valuable
  benchmark

18

• Numerical Prediction
• solve mathematical equations representing the
  physics of the atmosphere-ocean system
• seen as future of climate forecasting
• hybrid methods promising (e.g. downscaling)
• chaos and uncertainty, implies reliance on
  probabilities
• long-term quality data remains crucial for
• initialisation
• verification
• parameterisation, improving models
• hybrid methods

19
(No Transcript)
20
Coupled Model Dynamical Forecasts
Strength of El Nino
21
How predictable is ENSO?Sensitivity experiments
Sensitivity of NINO4 index to small initial
nudges
NINO4
Chaos limits predictability
Time (Years 1 to 4))
22
Summary

• Be aware of limitations in the statistical
  forecast scheme
• Good communication is crucial
• Work with your clients
• Beware potential problems
• Expectations for numerical models are high but
  statistical schemes likely to dominate for the
  next few years