The Rt Hon Elliot Morley MP

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• The Rt Hon Elliot Morley MP
• UK Prime Ministers Special Representative on the
  Gleneagles Dialogue
• President GLOBE International

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• Like every advanced industrialised country, we
  are coming to terms with issues surrounding
  climate change.
• Prime Minister Gordon Brown,
• July 2007

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal...
and is very likely (more than 90) due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gases. IPCC1 AR4 WGI2 SPM3 February 2007
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• IPCC Synthesis of Fourth Assessment
• 11of the past 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the
  12 warmest on record (1850)
• Sea level as risen 1.8mm p.a. since 1961 but
  3.1mm since 1993
• Depending on emissions, temperatures could
  increase up to 6.4C by 2100
• Up to 30 of worlds species at risk above 2C rise

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• Between 75 and 250 million people in Africa could
  suffer water shortages by 2020
• In Asia mega delta regions at greatly increased
  of flooding
• Tropical forest in eastern Amazonia will turn to
  savannah by mid-century

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The Need for Action
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The Need for Action

• Widespread signs of climate change now
• e.g. melting of glaciers globally, 8 loss of
  Arctic sea-ice in last decade, Melting
  permafrost, sea levels rising at 1-2 cm per
  decade, earlier biological changes in spring
• Significant risks to climate system this century
  with temperature rises of up to 5.8C
• e.g. irreversible melting of Greenland and even
  Antarctic ice sheet could begin (12m sea level
  rise potential), significant slowing of the Gulf
  Stream, widespread species loss, oceans become
  more acidic threatening the food chain, major
  increase in water stress.
• Threat to Climate Security
• Threats to key weather systems Asian Monsoon,
  El Nino events more severe, hurricanes become
  stronger, biosphere ceases to absorb excess CO2
  crops fail. Disputes over water and resources.
  Population displacement. Increased international
  tensions.

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Austrian Glacier, Pasterze
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Natural factors cannot explain recent warming
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Recent warming can be simulated when man-made
factors are included
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European summer temperatures modelled (red) and
observed (black)
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Observed Global Temperature Change 1850-2005
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Carbon Dioxide Levels Over the Last 60,000 Years
SourceUniversity of Berne and NOAA
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The Human and Economic Costs

• UK floods, autumn 2000
• - Insured loss 1bn
• European floods 2002
• - 37 deaths
• - 16 bn direct costs
• European heat-wave 2003
• - 35,000 deaths approx
• - 13.5 bn direct costs
• Hurricane Katrina, 2005
• - More than 1300 deaths
• - 40 bn insured loss alone
• - 200 bn total cost

Hurricane Katrina, courtesy of NOAA
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Economic Losses From Weather Related Events
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Distribution of emissions
Selected countries/regions fossil fuel CO2
emissions 2003
20
18
73 world emissions 59 world population
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14
12
CO2/capita tonnes
10
8
6
4
2
0
US
Brazil
India
EU-25
Mexico
China
Russia
South Africa
Japan
Energy Information Administration, US government,
Energy Information Manual 2003 updated 2005
Cumulative population, million
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(No Transcript)
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Percentage likelihood of eventual warming
exceeding 2 and 3ºC above pre-industrial levels
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Global Temperature Rise Predicted with HadCM3
Different emissions scenarios
High Emission Futures
2oC warmer than current
Low Emission Futures
Warming by 2100 depends critically on emissions
from now on, but has little impact on climate
change until 2030..
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Global CO2 Emissions
10
8 GtC/yr now
8
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Global CO2 Emissions (GtC/yr)?
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2
2300
1900
2200
2000
1950
2100
2050
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Global CO2 Emissions
- to avoid Dangerous Climate Change ?
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8 GtC/yr now
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Stabilisation at 450 ppmv requires a 60 cut in
global CO2 emissions by 2050
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Global CO2 Emissions (GtC/yr)?
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3 GtC/yr by 2050
..and continuous reductions beyond 2050
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2300
1900
2200
2000
1950
2100
2050
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There is still time to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change if we take strong action now.
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• BALI ROAD MAP
• Conversion of Convention Dialogue into
  negotiation process on further contributions from
  developing countries (cf Article 4.1 UNFCCC)
• A roadmap to 2009, including coordinating body
  (Ad hoc Group on Bali Roadmap) overseeing
• accelerated work programme for Convention and KP
  side (i.e. AWG and review) covering EU building
  blocks
• interim milestones (2008) to review progress and
• ensuring synergy and interlinkages between the
  tracks

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A Bali Roadmap two tracks
Ad hoc group on Bali roadmap
Enhanced DC contributions
Supporting items
2008 COP
2009 packgae deal
Differentiation AI KP commitments
Supporting KP Incentives
US 15 leading to US national target, commitment
under UNFCCC
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• GLOBE G85 Dialogue
• Post Framework Proposals

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• GLOBE Framework - Key Elements
• Long term stabilisation goal - to give us a
  direction of travel and environmental certainty.
  Global 50 per cent reduction in ghg by 2050 from
  1990 levels or 450-550ppm CO2e
• Carbon Markets creating a price for carbon is,
  over the long-term, the single most important
  element, so that the environmental cost is
  internalised and influences economic
  decision-making
• Hard targets for developed countries to reflect
  the historical responsibility and capability to
  act. These should be consistent with the long
  term goal
• SD policies and measures in dev countries
  measures to decarbonise the development path to
  help developing countries leapfrog
• Timeframe possible automatic annual extension
  - to give greater long-term certainty and to
  chime with capital investment timescales

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• Technology Fund to help pay for research and
  development of global good technologies such as
  CCS and deployment of existing and new
  technologies in developing countries
• Extending participation via MoUs with sectors (eg
  energy intensive sectors such as steel, cement
  etc) or sub-national governments to harness the
  potential of sectoral agreements by making them
  legally binding and consistent with the long-term
  goal of the post-2012 framework
• Measures to reduce deforestation (incl providing
  a value for standing forests) not just for
  carbon but also for ecosystem services
• Using existing international processes such as
  Montreal Protocol, WTO etc many of these
  processes can be used to secure and encourage ghg
  emissions reductions. For example, the Montreal
  Protocol has delayed anthropogenic radiative
  forcing by nearly 40 years. These efforts have
  solved what would have been almost half of the
  climate problem we would otherwise have today.
  It has been done through a regulatory approach,
  incorporated in a fair agreement, at a very low
  cost, with the strong co-operation of all
  countries.
• Critical Mass all countries, particularly the
  least developed, are vulnerable to the effects of
  climate change. But only 25 countries account
  for 83 of global greenhouse gas emissions.
  Participation by these countries is critical.

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• Adaptation Fund the world is already locked
  into a certain degree of climate change due to
  historical emissions of greenhouse gases. These
  impacts are falling most heavily on those least
  able to cope. Mechanisms are needed urgently to
  assist all countries, in particular the poorest,
  to adapt to climate change
• Flexibility a post-2012 framework should allow
  different types of commitments to accommodate
  different national strategies and circumstances.
  There should be a menu of options from which to
  choose how to achieve a countrys share of effort
• Urgency action is urgently needed to achieve
  immediate cost-effective emission reductions
  assist development and deployment of breakthrough
  technologies to achieve deeper reductions in the
  future and strengthen resilience to the adverse
  effects of a changing climate. This action needs
  to be guided by a common vision (ie a long term
  goal).
• Equity agreement on a post-2012 framework on
  climate change will be possible only if each
  participating country believes it to be
  equitable. This assessment is ultimately a
  political one but each country will judge equity
  in terms it believes it can defend both to its
  own people and to the global community. A
  post-2012 framework must recognize historical and
  per capita emissions of greenhouse gases, and the
  differing economic circumstances of developed and
  developing countries

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Will George listen to Arnie?Time for us all to
act
With thanks to the Hadley Centre, Defra and the
Met Office