Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change

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Information Technologies that will drive
Enterprise Change

• Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress
• 14 June 1998
• Gordon Bell
• Microsoft Corp.
• http//research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

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Topics...

• JAWS
• JAWES
• T
• STEW
• WEST
• WEB
• E-Commerce
• Scalability
• Telepresence

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Weba small Cyberspace island
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Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Body
Continent
Car
Region/ Intranet
Home
Campus, including SANs
World
Fractal Cyberspace a network of networks of
platforms
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Everything will be in Cyberspace

• Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate? or
• Cyberization enables new computing platforms
  thatrequire new networks to connect them
• Infrastructure supports the content
• Three evolutionary dimensions

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Cyberization interface to all bits and process
information

• Coupling to all information and information
  processors
• Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
• Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
• State of places, things, and people
• State of physical networks

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Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) people
know computers know bricks mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients) office hours anytime database
reports web access for review and
transactions letter fax email web
access phone email, voice video mail personal
visits videophone / videomail signature authentica
ted images envelopes digital envelopes / store
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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion
people on the net.Bet Nicholas Negroponte
1KBet Nicholas Negroponte 1K5K it
happens by 2002.Also 1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet!

• It determines the market
• for networks
• for access devices especially PCs
• It says something about the utility
• commerce
• communication
• entertainment
• Increased network capacity ubiquity enables
• phones
• videophones
• television
• serendipity

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Internetters growth
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
World Populationextrapolated at 1.6 per year
Internet Growthextrapolated at 98 per year
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Internetters growth
World Population
10000 1000 100 10
TVs Phones
1 Gp by 2000Negroponte
PCs
Internetters
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Growth in hype
Data from Gordons WAG
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Articles about security, privacy, fraud versus
commerce (M)
Data from Gordons WAG
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Cyberspace A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation
Cyberization
Communication
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Cyberspace one, two or three networks? in
2005, 2010, 2020?
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CIO Challenge how to manage Cyberspace?
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Visibility is Required for Every Part of the
System!
New in-house custom applications
SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP
Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix
Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File Print
SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail
HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast
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Managing the entire IT Enterprise servers, apps,
nets and clients

• Enterprises growing dependence upon apps for
  business processes and extended market reach
  and especially E-commerce
• Growing complexity of apps and
• Growing user diversity including customers
• No visibility into the users experience
• The approach has to be to understand the system
  from the users perspective!

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Client Based Passive Flow Analysis End-to-end
Path Visibility
Transaction Time
Availability
Transaction Health
Applications
Server
Client
Network
Routers Switches
Availability Congestion, Hop Count, Delay RTT
(Round Trip Time) Route flutter, Packet
loss Available Throughput
Availability Load Delay Refused connections
Availability PC Health Configuration Delay
User Behavior Modem Phone Line
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True Application Performance Management

• Aggregate and present service levels
• By app
• By componentclient, network and server
• Customizable SLAs
• Heat Charts expose hot spots
• Percentile reporting

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E- Commerce (and especially money as atoms
become bits)
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The Statistics

• 400,000 Companies on Net
• 5.1 Billion in Consumer Sales in US Europe in
  1998
• 17 Billion in Business-to-Business Transactions
  in 1998
• Both Doubled From 1997

Source Forrester Research, 1998
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Prediction

• By 2002, E-Commerce Transactions Will Reach 349
  Billion
• 96 Will Be Business-to-Business
• Reduced Cost of Implementing E-Commerce as
  Percent of Sales 5 - 10
• Net Gain in Economic Output 10 - 20 Billion

Source Forrester Research, 1998
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Online Sales
Source Forrester Research, 1998
Jupiter, 1998
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PC or web access device is critical for growth
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US Households on line
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One million people will access the web via TV
sets...

• BetAt least one million users will access the
  web/internet via their television sets by the end
  of 2001.
• Via phone line, 16xDSL 19 cable
  modem 17 settop box/cable 39not at all 9

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On line US Revenue
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Real growth in commerce?
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Who buys what on line in 2002?
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Underlying Technologies

• Merchant Servers
• Microsoft
• Open Market
• SUN
• iCat
• Cyber Agencies
• CKS
• Organic
• DoubleClick

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Underlying Technologies

• Incentive Systems (money surrogate)
• Digital IQ - Coupons
• Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles
• Impulse Buy Network - Buyers Network
• Narrative - Direct Response
• Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne
• e-Bay - Auctions
• Cyber Consumer Reports
• Junglee
• Jango
• NECX

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Channels

• More Cybermediaries - Bring Buyers and Sellers
  Together
• Yahoo
• FastParts, Inc.
• Instill Corp
• Consumer Magnets - Buyers With Useful
  Information link to Manufacturers Service
  Providers
• Auto-by-Tel
• Get-Smart.com
• Junglee
• NECX

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Predictions that will change your job

• As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum - They could
  Control Buying Process
• Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by
  Startups That Will Own the Internet channel
• Example Amazon.Com

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On line U. S. users
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Likelihood of small businesses on web
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Atoms represent money, ownership, riskIT
responsible for the infrastructure for a wide
range of activities advertising, selling,
delivery, billing, support, etc. For many, the
WEB is the Interface
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New or old money its just bits
Credit
ATM /
Prepaid
Check
Cash
Prepaid
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Put those checks statements in Cyberspace or
eliminate them!
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Buying selling stock what a pain!Faxes?
E-signatures are legal in GA
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Paperless transactions put them all in
Cyberspace
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) money data
base, smart card, credit card, debit
card statements web access bills / checks bill
present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock
database, web statements, reports web access,
email company infor, analyst reports,
etc. private placements web access, email trade
confirmation direct trades mail voting on line
voting
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Scalability User-built Scalables aka Clusters
are like nothing weve seen before...
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Billions Of Clients

• Every device will be intelligent
• Doors, rooms, cars
• Computing will be ubiquitous

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Not shown ECG GPS
Compass altimeter
PCS Pilot
Libretto, .5mm pencil
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera Swiss Army Knife
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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological
parameters1 GB
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Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers

• All clients networked to servers
• May be nomadicor on-demand
• Fast clients wantfaster servers
• Servers provide
• Shared Data
• Control
• Coordination
• Communication

Clients
Mobileclients
Fixedclients
Servers
Server
Super server
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Cluster Shared What?

• Shared Memory Multiprocessor
• Multiple processors, one memory
• all devices are local
• DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
• Shared Disk Cluster
• an array of nodes
• all shared common disks
• VAXcluster Oracle
• Shared Nothing Cluster
• each device local to a node
• ownership may change
• Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack

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SNAP Scalable Networks and Platforms

• Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
• The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the
  network ubiquitous and great!
• Common operating system for platform, reducing
  vendor and customer costs,and enables
  affordable, standard apps
• Cluster technology
• Apps are TRANPARENT!!!

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SNAP Systems circa 2000
Local global data comm world
Legacy mainframe minicomputer servers
terminals
Mobile Nets
Portables
Wide-area global ATM network
Person servers (PCs)
ATM Ethernet to PC, workstation, servers
scalable computers built from PCs SANs
Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals
???
Centralized departmental servers built from PCs

• A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and
  reliability scalable environment

TCTVPC home ... (CATV or ATM or satellite)
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Scaling dimensions include

• reliability including always up
• number of nodes
• most cost-effective system built from best nodes
  PCs with NO backplane
• highest throughput distributes disks to each node
  versus into a single node
• location within a region or continent
• time-scale I.e. machine generations

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SAN Standard Interconnect
Gbps Ethernet 110 MBps

• LAN faster than memory bus?
• 1 GBps links in lab.
• 100 port cost soon
• Port is computer

PCI 70 MBps
UW SCSI 40 MBps
FW SCSI 20 MBps
SCSI 5 MBps
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Basic Argument for x-Disks

• Future disk controller is a super-computer.
• 1 bips processor
• 128 MB dram
• 100 GB disk plus one arm
• Connects to SAN via high-level protocols
• RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory
  Services,.
• Commands are RPCs
• management, security,.
• Services file/web/db/ requests
• Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev
  environment
• Move apps to disk to save data movement
• need programming environment in controller

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Changing role of computation

• Past computers did
• computing (Cray)
• business data processing (IBM)
• document creation and email (PC)
• Future... computers will
• understand learn
• communicate
• entertain and teach
• be more ubiquitous and be appliances
• Requires new User Interface to machines

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All Gods Children Have Clusters!Buying
Computing By the Slice

• People are buying computers by the dozens
• Computers only cost 1k/slice!
• Clustering them together

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Commercial NT Clusters

• 16-node Tandem Cluster
• 64 cpus
• 2 TB of disk
• Decision support
• 45-node Compaq Cluster
• 140 cpus
• 14 GB DRAM
• 4 TB RAID disk
• OLTP (Debit Credit)
• 1 B tpd (14 k tps)

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Tandem Oracle/NT

• 27,383 tpmC
• 71.50 /tpmC
• 4 x 6 cpus
• 384 disks2.7 TB

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Inktomi (hotbot), WebTV gt 200 nodes

• Inktomi 250 UltraSparcs
• web crawl
• index crawled web and save index
• Return search results on demand
• Track Ads and click-thrus
• ACID vs BASE (basic Availability, Serialized
  Eventually)
• Web TV
• 200 UltraSparcs
• Render pages, Provide Email
• 4 Network Appliance NFS file servers
• A large Oracle app tracking customers

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Loki Pentium Clusters for Sciencehttp//loki-www
.lanl.gov/

• 16 Pentium Pro Processors
• x 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces
• 2 Gbytes RAM
• 50 Gbytes Disk
• 2 Fast Ethernet switches
• Linux...
  
• 1.2 real Gflops for 63,000
• (but that is the 1996 price)
• Beowulf project is similar
• http//cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/people/becker/beow
  ulf.html
• Scientists want cheap mips.

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Our Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile
Stewardship

• Intel/Sandia 9000x1 node Ppro
• LLNL/IBM 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)
• LNL/Cray ?
• Maui Supercomputer Center
• 512x1 SP2

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Berkeley NOW (network of workstations)
Projecthttp//now.cs.berkeley.edu/

• 105 nodes
• Sun UltraSparc 170, 128 MB, 2x2GB disk
• Myrinet interconnect (2x160MBps per node)
• SBus (30MBps) limited
• GLUNIX layer above Solaris
• Inktomi (HotBot search)
• NAS Parallel Benchmarks
• Crypto cracker
• Sort 9 GB per second

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Andrew Chiens JBOB at NCSAhttp//www-csag.cs.uiu
c.edu/individual/achien.html

• 48 nodes
• 36 HP 2PIIx128 1 diskKayak boxes
• 10 Compaq 2PIIx128 1 disk, Wkstation 6000
• 32-Myrinet16-ServerNet connected
• Operational
• All running NT

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NCSA Cluster

• The National Center for Supercomputing
  ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois _at_ Urbana
• 500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks, SAN
• Compaq HP Myricom
• A Super Computer for 3M
• Classic Fortran/MPI programming
• NT DCOM programming model

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4 B PCs (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps
Net, BG) The Bricks of Cyberspace

• Cost 1,000
• Come with
• NT
• DBMS
• High speed Net
• System management
• GUI / OOUI
• Tools
• Compatible with everyone else
• CyberBricks

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Some Tera-Byte Databases
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta

• The Web 1 TB of HTML
• TerraServer 1 TB of images
• Several other 1 TB (file) servers
• Hotmail 7 TB of email
• Sloan Digital Sky Survey 40 TB raw, 2 TB
  cooked
• EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
• 15 PB by 2007
• Federal Clearing house images of checks
• 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)
• Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program
• 10 Exabytes (???!!)

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Info Capture
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta
A letter
A novel

• You can record everything you see or hear or
  read.
• What would you do with it?
• How would you organize analyze it?

A Movie
Library of Congress (text)
LoC (image)
All Disks
Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h) Audio 30 TB
(10KB/s) Read/write 8 GB (words) See
http//www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
All Tapes
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A letter
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta
A novel
A Movie
LoC (text)
LoC (sound cinema)
LoC (image)
All Disks
All Photos
All Tapes
All Information!
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Now how do you find or use the rich information
Need the system to locate, retrieve, visualize,
order, up load the corporations IP assets
(text, proposals, images, videos, presentations,
etc.) with appropriate controls.
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SmartMedia Technologies
Context Relevance
Image Recognition for Objects Speech
Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical
Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis
Viewing
Color
Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
BW
Brightness
Contrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
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Virage Video Cataloger
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Telepresence being there while being here, at
another time, and with time scaling

• Telepresentations
• Telemeetings
• The work

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MotivationTelepresentations

• Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT meeting or collaboration settings Forget the
nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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TelepresentationElements

• Slides
• Audio
• Video
• Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

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TelepresentationsThe Essentials

• Slide and audio a must
• Add some video (low quality) to make us feel
  good
• Storage and transmission costs low

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TelepresentationsThe Killer App

• Increased attendance lower travel costs
• Practical and low-cost NOW
• e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000
  visitors on Internethttp//research.microsoft.com
  /acm97

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TodaysExperiment

• Would you like to pause, rewind, browse?
• Do you wish you could have seen this
• At home?
• At another time?
• How much does a present speaker add? How much
  would you pay for real presence?

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Telework It takes screens, sound, and
bandwidth, stupid
http//research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50 of
the PCs and be in use.

• Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser
  gets fed)

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Telecommuting versus time
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Teleworking CW 9/1/97

• 15 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk
• 42 of US Cos 22 have policies (screening,
  worker expectations, liability, IP protection,
  etc.
• Are telecommuters more productive?
• 30 yes
• 50 same
• 4 no
• 16 dont know
• Are telecommuters more accessible?
• 13 yes
• 40 same
• 40 no
• 7 dont know

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Telepresence

• hold a meeting of type, m
• university or technical course
• interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board
  meeting, annual meeting, town hall,
• with p, distributed persons
• with as much interactivity and feeling
• such that people prefer being telepresent
• meetings are provably more productive
• meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus
  traditional synchronous

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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
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Mobile videophone
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Honda Robot
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Living in Cyberspace
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SOHO (small office, home office)network
computing environment
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) gt1.5
Mbps
POTS (legacy services)
NT Server for comm/network, POTS/IP gateway,
file, print, compute
LAN
NC
PC
PC
NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
...
Phone
Phone
Phone
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Problems of living working in Cyberspace socio
vs technical

• Isolation loneliness
• need for communication/stimulation
• chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
• loss of group/teamwork skills
• danger of becoming terminal
• interruptions focus
• lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
• supervision and ability to have 11
• unclear that many people want it they simply
  need the contact with people

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A People Model Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock formal(in writing) Self-control informal
(verbal) Sally Field
Analyticals.. being right, detailed analretentiv
es
Driversresults orient. megalo-maniacs
Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR) 2D
Model
broadcast- push
email
Expressives...want recognition, need
contact psychotics
Amiablesconsensusbuilders spinelesswimps
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Intensity
Souter Evangelism Swaggert