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Possum Point. Kincaid. North Anna Power Station ... Convert Possum Point 3 & 4 from coal to gas. Build gas-fired Possum Point 6. Current plan to meet: ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Visit us online at: www'dom'cominvestors


1
New Dominion
Investor Meetings December 2006
Visit us online at www.dom.com/investors Dominion
s common stock trades under ticker DNYSE
2
Important Notes to Investors
This presentation contains certain
forward-looking statements including our
projected future long-term operating earnings
growth rates, projected future earnings mix,
projected future trading multiples and projected
use of proceeds that are subject to various risks
and uncertainties. Factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially from
management's projections, forecasts, estimates
and expectations may include factors that are
beyond the company's ability to control or
estimate precisely, such as fluctuations in
energy-related commodity prices, including
changes in the cost of fuel for our regulated
electric business, the timing of the closing
dates of acquisitions or divestitures (including
any divestiture of our natural gas and oil
assets), risks associated with the realignment of
our operating assets (including costs associated
with any sale of our exploration and production
business and the costs and reinvestment risks
related to the redeployment of proceeds from any
sales), realization of and timing of the receipt
of expected business interruption insurance
proceeds, additional risk exposure associated
with the termination of business interruption and
offshore property damage related to our
exploration and production operations and our
inability to replace such insurance on
commercially reasonable terms, estimates of
future market conditions, estimates of proved and
unproved reserves, the companys ability to meet
its natural gas and oil production forecasts, the
behavior of other market participants, and the
effects of hurricanes on our operations, gas and
oil production and realized prices. Other factors
include, but are not limited to, weather
conditions, governmental regulations, economic
conditions in the company's service area, risks
of operating businesses in regulated industries
that are subject to changing regulatory
structures, changes to regulated gas and electric
rates collected by Dominion, risks associated
with the realignment of our operating assets
(including the potential dilutive effect on
earnings in the near term, costs associated with
any sale of our exploration and production
business and the redeployment of proceeds from
any sales), changes to rating agency requirements
and ratings, changing financial accounting
standards, trading counter-party credit risks,
risks related to energy trading and marketing,
and other uncertainties. Other risk factors are
detailed from time to time in Dominions most
recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q or annual
report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities
Exchange Commission.  
3
New Dominion Asset Mix (Focus Area East of
Mississippi)
4
New Dominion Earnings Mix
Delivery
Energy
Generation
Status Quo
EP
40
Delivery
Generation
2008
Energy
EP
36
Delivery
New Dominion
2006
Generation
Energy
Appalachia
lt5
Excludes earnings from gas and oil production
from Dominion Transmission properties included in
Dominion Energy.
5
New DominionHow We Got There
6
A Changing Earnings Mix 1997 to Present
3
DEI- Gen
DCI
DEI- EP
Delivery
Generation
UK
Energy
VP
EP
36
1997
2006E
Excludes earnings from gas and oil production
from Dominion Transmission properties included in
Dominion Energy.
7
The Symptom P/E Discount
23 Discount To Utility Peers
2008 P/E
Multiples based on 20-day average ended Oct.31.
8
The Symptom P/E Discount
15 Discount To Commodity Sensitive Peers
2008 P/E
Multiples based on 20-day average ended Oct.31.
9
The Symptom P/E Discount
And Only A Little Better Than EP Peers
2008 P/E
Multiples based on 20-day average ended Oct.31.
10
Reasons for the P/E Discount
  • D viewed as a conglomerate, thus, CONGLOMERATE
    DISCOUNT
  • EP Concerns Have Drawn Attention Away from
    Dominions Other Businesses
  • Commodity Price Sensitivity Heavy Discounting
    of Forward Earnings Estimates
  • General Business Risk of EP Adds to Equity Risk
    Premium
  • Split Shareholder Base
  • EP Investors Dont Want to Invest in Utility
  • Utility Investors Dont Want to Invest in EP
  • So . . . Who Wants To Invest in a Combination
    Utility/EP?

11
Potential Cure The IPO/Spin Option
  • Advantages
  • Avoid tax leakage
  • Keep company together for employees
  • Disadvantages
  • Public market discount relative to asset value
  • 30 discount offsets tax leakage of 25-28
  • Possible large equity issuance at D needed to pay
    down debt
  • Results from limited debt capacity of stand-alone
    EP
  • IPO discount
  • 15-20 discount
  • Longer timeline
  • Adds additional operational, financial and market
    risk to equation for Dominion shareholders due to
    length of time to execute
  • Tax free benefits of IPO limited by Dominions
    tax basis in SpinCo assets
  • Loss of cash flow coverage to maintain/grow
    dividend at remaining Dominion

12
Dominion Generation, Energy, Delivery
Dominion Appalachia- Sell EP THE VALUE
EQUATION
13
Two Categories of Consideration
  • The Obvious
  • The Not So Obvious

14
Obvious Modeling Assumptions
  • Use a comparable transaction analysis to estimate
    gross sales price
  • Use tax basis, tax rate and tax shields provided
    to estimate net proceeds
  • Assume net proceeds are used to pay down debt and
    buy back stock
  • Assume D trades at peer multiple post divestiture

15
The Not So Obvious
  • Quality, size and potential of EP reserves being
    sold should command a premium to comparable
    transactions
  • Buyer tax basis step up enhances asset value vs.
    public market value
  • Dominion has a number of opportunities to enhance
    net cash proceeds
  • Monetize underperforming assets to yield
    investable cash and enhance ROIC/EPS
  • Use of proceeds to strengthen credit metrics
    should provide financial benefits beyond
    immediate EPS
  • Lower cost of capital should enhance ability to
    add accretive assets to portfolio at higher
    earnings and cash flow
  • New Dominions asset mix should command a premium
    multiple to peers
  • Result - lower equity cost of capital

16
New Dominion Financial Attributes
  • Lower cost of equity
  • Reduced risk profile/lower borrowing costs
  • Continued emphasis on improving ROIC
  • Secure dividend with more opportunity for future
    growth

17
New DominionOperational Excellence,Organic
Growth,Investment Opportunities
18
New Dominion Long-Term Growth Rate
EPS Projected Growth Rate
Approximate of Total Operating Unit 2008 EPS
Key Attributes
  • High growth electric service territory
  • Dominion East Ohio infrastructure opportunities
  • Dominion Retail 10-15 growth
  • Delivery 20 2-3
  • Generation gt55 5-6
  • Energy 20 5-6
  • Appalachia lt5 2-3
  • Consolidated 100 4-6
  • High quality, low-cost generation fleet
  • Merchant generation assets located in NE market
  • Uprates and other organic growth potential
  • Acquisition opportunities
  • Well situated mid-stream assets
  • High value service offerings
  • Organic infrastructure growth
  • Acquisition opportunities
  • High drilling success rate
  • High potential drilling prospects
  • Very low decline rate

19
Electric Service Reliability Is Improving
On target for improvement over 2005
Minutes out
8 Improvement
Average Customer Minutes Out Excluding Major
Storms
YTD reflects performance through October 2006.
20
Virginia Service Territory Ranked Tops
  • Ranked 1 among Top States for Business by
    Forbes.com
  • 1 national leader in high-tech job growth
  • AAA bond rating (one of only 7 states)
  • Ranked as 10th most tax-friendly state
  • Unemployment rate in Virginia of 3.1 below US
    rate of 4.4
  • State growth rate of 6.9 above US rate of 5.3
  • 40,000 new customer accounts annually in service
    territory

Sources unemployment U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics Sept. 06 Top States Forbes.com August
2006 Tax-friendly The Tax Foundation, 2006
State growth 2000-2005, Source VA Economic
Development Partnership Bond ratings Moody's
Investors Service, 2005 State Debt Medians
Bureau of Economic Analysis High-tech growth
Cyberstates 2006 Report
21
New Service Installations Drive Growth
New Service Installations
80,000
18,293
16,933
17,791
18,417
60,000
40,000
56,902
58,077
55,505
51,243
20,000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Northern VA Central VA Tidewater
Electric
Gas
Cleveland Akron Canton
22
Dominion Retails Performance Also a Driver
Projected
23
Excellent Operations Exist at Generation
YTD reflects performance through September 2006.
24
Along with Expansion Possibilities
  • Unit uprates
  • Millstone Unit 3 power uprate
  • Potential coal turbine uprates
  • Ongoing initiatives to enhance margins
  • Salem Harbor alternative fuel co-firing
  • Ash disposal
  • Southwest Virginia Coal Plant
  • Potential site expansions
  • Possum Point
  • Kincaid
  • North Anna Power Station

Included in current plan
25
Planned Environmental Spending Competitive
Advantage
  • VA and WVA pre-2000 controls (400 million)
  • Scrubber at Mt. Storm
  • Monitors and NOx controls (system wide)
  • Clover scrubbers
  • U.S. EPA Agreement since 2001 controls (1.6
    billion)
  • Scrubbers (Chesterfield, Mt. Storm)
  • SCRs (Chesterfield, Mt. Storm, Chesapeake)
  • SNCRs (Clover, Chesapeake, Yorktown)
  • Convert Possum Point 3 4 from coal to gas
  • Build gas-fired Possum Point 6
  • Current plan to meet
  • VA and Merchant New EPA Rules (800 million)
  • Scrubbers
  • Additional SCRs
  • Mercury control equipment
  • New England State specific regulations in
    2010-2015 (500 million)
  • Scrubbers
  • Additional SCRs
  • Mercury control equipment

26
Excellence at Dominion Energy
  • No unscheduled Firm Gas Service interruptions - 5
    years without incident
  • Set new electric system peak of 19,375 MW on
    August 3, 2006 with no operational issues
  • Electric Transmission Minutes Out YTD on track
    to meet goal

Electric Trans Minutes Out
YTD reflects performance through October 2006.
27
A Solid Track Record of Growth Projects in Energy
Operated by DTI includes LDC Storage
28
As Well As Transmission Expansion Potential
29
Appalachian Acreage Well-Positioned
Dominion Conventional Acreage
Dominion EP Offices
Major Pipelines
Dominion Storage Fields
50 Miles
Cove Point LNG Terminal
30
With Impressive Drilling Characteristics
  • 1.1 Tcfe proved reserves
  • High drilling success rate and low cost
  • Low decline rate 5
  • 300 wells drilled annually
  • Upper Devonian Sandstone
  • Conventional plays

Unaudited estimated Appalachian proved reserves
as of 9/30/06 1.1 Tcfe proved reserves as of
12/31/05 1.0 Tcfe. Includes 183 Bcfe of proved
reserves owned by Dominion Transmission and
reported in Dominion Energy.
31
And Steady Growth in Production
Volumes reflect Net Revenue Interest for Dominion
EP and Dominion Transmission plus VPP Volumes
produced in Appalachia. Natural Gas Liquid
volumes first recorded in 2001.
32
As Well As Promising Initiatives
  • Unconventional Gas Resources
  • Tight Gas Sands
  • Devonian Shale
  • Coalbed Methane (CBM)
  • Cutting Edge Technology
  • Horizontal Drilling
  • State of the Art IT Applications
  • Geoscience
  • Land (GIS - Property Management)
  • Engineering

33
In Summary, A Full Pipeline of Opportunities
  • Cove Point construction began
  • SCC Hearing on SW VA Coal Plant
  • New England FCM goes into effect
  • EP Auction begins
  • LDC Sale close
  • Millstone uprate
  • Market-based rates in VA
  • Cove Point expansion in service
  • Potential SW VA Coal Plant in service
  • DTI Storage and Transmission Expansion
  • July 1 Fuel Factor Reset, Pass-Through Begins

2H 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
34
Supports An Achievable Long-Term Growth Rate
  • One of the strongest electric utility franchise
    areas
  • One of the premier gas LDCs in nation
  • Successful, growing retail program
  • Diverse, merchant electric generation portfolio
  • One of the nations most active LNG facilities
  • One of the worlds largest natural gas storage
    systems
  • Natural gas pipeline among the most efficient and
    profitable in industry
  • Low risk gas and oil operation with 9,000
    producing wells and 7,000 prospective drilling
    sites

4-6 Long Term EPS Growth
Projected
35
Appendix
36
New Dominion Key Modeling Considerations - 2008
  • Proved EP reserves estimate as of 9/30/06
    (excluding Appalachia) 5.5 Tcfe
  • Book value of EP (excluding Appalachia) 10.5
    billion
  • Comparable transaction values
  • Suggested source J. S. Herold financial database
  • Tax basis of EP assets (excluding Appalachia)
    3.8 billion
  • Tax rate 37
  • Average cost of debt 6.5 (Pre-tax)
  • Credit objective maintain existing credit metric
    targets
  • Adjusted Debt to Capitalization lt 50
  • Adjusted FFO to Interest gt 4.2x
  • Estimated EP earnings mix in 2008 (as of
    operating earnings)
  • Status Quo EP 40 of total status quo earnings
  • Appalachian Only lt5 of total New Dominion
    earnings
  • Annual Appalachian CapEx 150-175 million
  • New ongoing Dominion operating earnings projected
    growth rate 4-6

As of 9/30/06, total unaudited estimated proved
reserves 6.6 Tcfe Non-Appalachian reserves 5.5
Tcfe Appalachian reserves 1.1 Tcfe
37
EP Reserve Locations
Non-Appalachia
Major Producing Areas
Total unaudited estimated proved reserves as of
9/30/06 6.6 Tcfe
Proved reserves (Bcfe)
as of December 31, 2005
6,268
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
YTD December 31, 2005
1,050
Appalachia
1 Canada
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
220
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
55
2 Gulf Coast
1
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
475
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
158
3 Gulf of Mexico
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
986
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
331
8
4 Appalachia
Appalachia unaudited estimated proved reserves
as of 9/30/06 1.1 Tcfe
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
1,005
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
106
5 Mid-Continent
4
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
703
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
108
6 Permian
7
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
2,096
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
168
2
6
5
7 Rocky Mountain/Other
2
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
533
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
100
8 Michigan
3
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
250
Daily Production (Mmcfe/day)
24
Non-Appalachia unaudited estimated proved
reserves as of 9/30/06 5.5 Tcfe
Includes 183 Bcfe of proved reserves owned by
Dominion Transmission and reported in Dominion
Energy.


100 BCFe
 
38
Reserve characteristics
39
Reserve Detail
40
Daily Production
41
Appalachia Hedge Position
Hedges as of 11/1/06
42
Non-Appalachia Hedge Position
Hedges as of 11/1/06
43
Total Hedge Position
Hedges as of 11/1/06
44
Average North AmericanOil Gas Reserve
Replacement (2001-2005)
(includes acquisitions)
Source John S. Herold, Inc. Financial Database
(8/06)
45
Average North AmericanReserve Replacement Cost
(2001-2005)
(includes acquisitions)
/mcfe
Source John S. Herold, Inc. Financial Database
(8/06)
46
Average North American Operating
Expense(2001-2005)
/mcfe
Source John S. Herold, Inc. Financial Database
(8/06)
47
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