Title: LESSON 20 CRISIS DECISION MAKING USS Vincennes Case Study
1LESSON 20CRISIS DECISION MAKINGUSS Vincennes
Case Study
2USS Vincennes Case StudyHistorical Background
- THE LINGERING THREAT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
- SHAH OVERTHROWN - 62 AMERICANS TAKEN HOSTAGE
(1979)
- IRAN/IRAQ WAR COMMENCES (SEP 1980)
- BEIRUT EMBASSY BOMBING (1983)
- TANKER WAR ESCALATES (1984)
- USS STARK INCIDENT (MAY 87)
- IRAQI F-1 LAUNCHES (2) EXOCET MISSILES (Pilot
Error)
- 37 DEATHS, 21 INJURED, CO RELIEVED FOR CAUSE
- U.S. REFLAGS KUWAITI TANKERS (1987)
- OPERATION EARNEST WILL - U.S. REFLAGS 11 TANKERS
(JUL)
- M/V BRIDGETON STRIKES A MINE (as did two other
vessels)
- IRAN AJR CAUGHT LAYING MINES (SEP 87)
- USS SAMUEL B. ROBERTS STRIKES MINE (APR 88)
- OPERATION PRAYING MANTIS - Response against the
Iranian Navy
3USS Vincennes IncidentSeven Minutes that
Stunned the Navy
4USS Stark IncidentHistorical Background (Review)
5USS Vincennes (CG-49)Combat Information Center
6Commander, Joint Task Force, Middle East Chain
of Command
Combatant Commander (COCOM)
Component Commander (OPCON)
Warfare Commanders (TACON) O-6
7USS Vincennes Case StudyAir Warfare PID Criteria
- Kinematics (course, speed, altitude ??, CPA)
- Point of origin
- Composition (Quantity)
- ESM
- IFF
- Position relative to COMAIR routes
- Published AOG Flight Schedules
- Intel Reports (Indications and Warnings)
- Voice comms (Queries and Warnings)
8USS Vincennes Case StudyPeacetime Rules of
Engagement (ROE)
- COMMAND RESPONSIBILITY
- Officers in command are not only responsible for
ensuring that they conduct all combat operations
in accordance with the law of armed conflict
they are also responsible for the proper
performance of their subordinates. - While a commander may delegate some or all of
his authority, he/she cannot delegate
responsibility for the conduct of the forces
he/she commands.
9USS Vincennes Case StudyPeacetime Rules of
Engagement (ROE)
- INHERENT RIGHT OF SELF DEFENSE - permits the use
of force in self-defense against armed attack or
threat of imminent armed attack subject to the
following - NECESSITY - use of force must be IRT a hostile
act or demonstration of hostile intent.
- PROPORTIONALITY - use of force must be limited
in intensity, duration, and scope.
- HOSTILE ACT - deliberate attacks by opposing
forces.
- Examples actual attacks, laying mines in
international waters, etc.
- HOSTILE INTENT - the threat of imminent use of
force by opposing forces.
- Examples training weapons systems, energizing
fire control radars, maneuvering to launch
position.
10USS Vincennes Case StudySequence of Events 03
Jul 88Surface Engagement
- VINCENNES IN GULF ENROUTE PVST BAHRAIN
- 0711 MON hears reports of 5-7 explosions near a
Liberian tanker MON directed by GS to proceed
away from the tanker VIN directed to vector
SH-60B to investigate - 0742 OL25 observers gunboats circling a German
cargo ship
- 0915 OL25 reports being fired upon by IRG
gunboats
- 0939 VIN requests permission to engage
gunboats
- 0941 GS gave permission to engage boghammers
with guns
- 0942 Iranian gunboats turn inbound toward VIN
- 0943 VIN/MON commenced fire with 5in/54 guns
- 094530 IA655 launches from Bandar Abbas
- 1003 VIN/MON ceased fire (119 rounds expended)
UNCLASSIFIED
11USS Vincennes Case StudySequence of Events 03
Jul 88Air Engagement
- 094530 IA655 launches from Bandar Abbas
- 0947 VIN gains radar contact (SPY-1A) (47 nm)
- 0949 VIN issues initial warning over MAD to TN
4131 (40 nm) Ten warnings given in next five
minutes (3 IAD / 7 MAD)
- 0950 VIN reports inbound F-14 to GB (32 nm)
- 0951 VIN states that intentions are to engage
contact at 20 nm if the contact does not turn
away (now 30 nm)
- 0951 VIN forward 5in gun jams (MT51) - ship
turns violently
- 0952 VIN issues several warnings to TN 4131
(25nm)
- 0952 VIN requests and receives permission to
illuminate (20 nm)
- 0953 TN 4131 was at 16nm SPD 371 kts, ALT
11,230 ft
- 095405 VIN engages TN 4131 at 10 nm (salvo size
two)
UNCLASSIFIED
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14USS Vincennes Case StudyArtershocks
- Formal Board of Inquiry was convened by RADM
Fogerty 13 Jul 88.
- Official parties to the inquiry
- RADM Less (principal)
- CAPT Rodgers (principal)
- LCDR Scott Lustig (Air TAO)
- LCDR Vic Guillory (TAO)
- Findings
- during the formal portion of the inquiry, the
board found no grounds for disciplinary or
punitive action.
15USS Vincennes Case StudyInvestigation - Synopsis
of Facts
- IRAN AIR ACTUAL FLIGHT PROFILE
- Always ascending
- Only mode III IFF squawk
- Within airway Amber 59
- Maximum air speed of 385 knots
- AEGIS WEAPON SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
- No Aegis weapon system equipment deficiencies
existed during the engagement. Link-11 was down
for 28 seconds.
- PERSONNEL PERFORMANCE
- With little time and under combat stress during
the surface engagement, watchstanders
misinterpreted some tactical information.
UNCLASSIFIED
16USS Vincennes Case StudyFundamental
Considerations that the Vincennes Could Not
Control
- ISSUES FACED BY CAPTAIN RODGERS
- Ongoing surface engagement.
- The unidentified assumed hostile contact had
taken off from a civilian-military airfield.
- Heading directly toward Vincennes, relentlessly
closing.
- No definitive radar emissions.
- Unanswered warnings.
- Short decision window.
- No proof that the contact was not related to the
ongoing surface fight.
UNCLASSIFIED
17CRISIS LEADERSHIPKey Lessons
- MAINTAIN FLEXIBILITY
- be willing to show flexibility do not be tied
to inflexible policies of the past that may not
apply to the fast-moving situations of the
present. - be open to suggestions on how to solve crises
- AVOID TASK FIXATION
- someone needs to be looking at the big picture
- AVOID SCENARIO FULFILLMENT BIASES
- dont neglect to search for disconfirmatory
information.
- KEEP THINGS SIMPLE
- ask people to do things that they are already
trained to do.
18USS Vincennes Case StudyEpilogue
- CAPT Rodgers
- Completed remainder of scheduled deployment,
returning to San Diego in 24 Oct 88.
- July 1989 assumed command of TACTRAGRUPAC
- Retired Aug 1991 and is now a consultant
- RADM Less
- Subsequently promoted to VADM and appointed
COMNAVAIRPAC.
- LCDR Vic Guillory and LCDR Scott Lustig
- Both promoted to CDR and completed successful XO
tours aboard new-construction Aegis Cruisers.