Title: Shipping
1Shipping Energy Dinner27. March 2007
Guest speaker Bjorn Sjaastad, CEO Frontline
Sponsored by
2Norwegian-British Chamber of Commerce
March 27, 2007
3Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS ENCLOSURES AND
APPENDICES (HEREINAFTER JOINTLY REFERRED TO AS
THE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY FRONTLINE
LTD. (FRONTLINE or THE COMPANY) EXCLUSIVELY
FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES. THIS PRESENTATION HAS
NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR REGISTERED WITH ANY PUBLIC
AUTHORITY OR STOCK EXCHANGE. RECIPIENTS OF THIS
PRESENTATION MAY NOT REPRODUCE, REDISTRIBUTE OR
PASS ON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, THE PRESENTATION TO
ANY OTHER PERSON. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS
PRESENTATION AND THE OFFERING, SUBSCRIPTION,
PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES ISSUED BY THE
COMPANY IN CERTAIN JURISDICTIONS IS RESTRICTED BY
LAW. PERSONS INTO WHOSE POSSESSION THIS
PRESENTATION MAY COME ARE REQUIRED BY THE COMPANY
TO INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND TO COMPLY WITH ALL
APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN FORCE IN ANY
JURISDICTION IN OR FROM WHICH IT INVESTS OR
RECEIVES OR POSSESSES THIS PRESENTATION AND MUST
OBTAIN ANY CONSENT, APPROVAL OR PERMISSION
REQUIRED UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN FORCE
IN SUCH JURISDICTION, AND THE COMPANY SHALL NOT
HAVE ANY RESPONSIBILITY OR LIABILITY FOR THESE
OBLIGATIONS. IN PARTICULAR, NEITHER THIS
PRESENTATION NOR ANY COPY OF IT MAY BE TAKEN OR
TRANSMITTED OR DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY, INTO CANADA OR JAPAN. THIS
PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL
OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY
SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION TO ANY PERSON TO
WHOM IT IS UNLAWFUL TO MAKE SUCH AN OFFER OR
SOLICITATION IN SUCH JURISDICTION. IN RELATION
TO THE UNITED STATES AND U.S. PERSONS, THIS
PRESENTATION IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS
BEING FURNISHED SOLELY IN RELIANCE ON APPLICABLE
EXEMPTIONS FROM THE REGISTRATION REQIUREMENTS
UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS
AMENDED. THE SHARES OF MDL HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT
BE REGISTERED UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OR
ANY STATE SECURITIES LAWS, AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED
OR SOLD WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR
THE ACCOUNT OR BENEFIT OF U.S. PERSONS, UNLESS AN
EXEMPTION FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF
THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT IS AVAILABLE.
ACCORDINGLY, ANY OFFER OR SALE OF SHARES IN MDL
WILL ONLY BE OFFERED OR SOLD (I) WITHIN THE
UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OR
BENEFIT OF U.S. PERSONS, ONLY TO QUALIFIED
INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS (QIBs) IN PRIVATE
PLACEMENT TRANSACTIONS NOT INVOLVING A PUBLIC
OFFERING AND (II) OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES IN
OFFSHORE TRANSACTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
REGULATION S. ANY PURCHASER OF SHARES IN THE
UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OF U.S.
PERSONS, WILL BE DEEMED TO HAVE MADE CERTAIN
REPRESENTATIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, INCLUDING
WITHOUT LIMITATION THAT THE PURCHASER IS A
QIB. NONE OF THE COMPANYS SHARES HAS BEEN OR
WILL BE QUALIFIED FOR SALE UNDER THE SECURITIES
LAWS OF ANY PROVINCE OR TERRITORY OF CANADA. THE
COMPANYS SHARES ARE NOT BEING OFFERED AND MAY
NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY,
IN CANADA OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OF ANY
RESIDENT OF CANADA IN CONTRAVENTION OF THE
SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY PROVINCE OR TERRITORY
THEREOF. THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS (DEFINED IN SECTION
27A OF THE US SECURITIES ACT AND SECTION 21E OF
THE US EXCHANGE ACT AS ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THAN
STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS) INCLUDING,
WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE REGARDING THE COMPANYS
FINANCIAL POSITION, BUSINESS STRATEGY, PLANS AND
OBJECTIVES FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS. SUCH
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND
UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER FACTORS
WHICH MAY CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE
OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE COMPANY, OR, AS THE CASE
MAY BE, THE INDUSTRY, TO MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM
ANY FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS
EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE
BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE
COMPANYS PRESENT AND FUTURE BUSINESS STRATEGIES
AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE COMPANY WILL
OPERATE. AMONG THE IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT COULD
CAUSE THE COMPANYS ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE
OR ACHIEVEMENTS TO MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM THOSE
IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE, AMONG
OTHERS, THE COMPETITIVE NATURE OF THE MARKETS,
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS, GOVERNMENT
REGULATIONS, CHANGES IN ECONOMICAL CONDITIONS OR
POLITICAL EVENTS.
4Frontline Key Strategic Issues
- Tanker business for crude oil
- Concentration and focus keep it simple
- Scale threshold / critical mass
- taken seriously by charterers
- trading patterns / flexibility / COAs
- low cost operator ( purchasing )
- Taken seriously in investor market ( gt USD 1
bill. ) - Shareholder / investor oriented Create values
- high dividend payout ratio
- high liquidity / volumes
- timely and accurate information
5Frontline Key Strategic Issues cont.
- Professional, business oriented and dedicated
organisation - extensive use of outsourcing
- HQ chartering, projects, finance and accounting
- close follow-up of third-party service providers
- ship management
- post fixture
- Aggressive and opportunistic investment strategy
- Solid financial base
- low break even rates
- access to funding
- return on equity
6Frontline History
- Stock Listings
- 1997 Norway
- 1998 London (OTC)
- 2001 NYSE
- Acquisitions / Mergers
- 1996 Frontline AB (7 vessels)
- 1998 LOF (3 vessels)
- 1999 ICB (8 vessels)
- 2000 Golden Ocean (23 vessels)
- Purchase of vessels 1996 2007
- N/Bs 25 vessels
- 2nd hand 30 vessels
7Spin-offs
- Ship Finance International Limited 2003 2007
- Golden Ocean Group Limited 2004 2005
- Sealift Ltd. 2007
- Sea Production Limited 2007
8Frontline Fleet
Introduction
- Most of the vessels are fixed on t/c for the
remainder of the committed period - - 3 SS Suezmaxes sold to Sealift and chartered
back on short-term BB until conversion - - Front Transporter sold with delivery Q1
9Corporate structure
Introduction
FLEET
10Newbuildings
11Financial Highlights
Fourth Quarter 2006
12Major transactions 2006/2007
- Sale of Front Beijing, Front Tobago, Front
Vanadis, Front Transporter - Newbuilding contracts
- Delivery of Front Shanghai
- Exercise and resale of two VLCC options
- Sealift Ltd.
- Sea Production Limited
13Income on time charter basis
Financial Review
Imarex forward curve as of 23.02.07 for the
period Q1 2007- Q2 2008
14Cash breakeven rates (/day)
Financial Review
15Company overview
Frontline 28 / Keppel 5 / Investors 67
Sea Production Ltd. (Bermuda)
- Floated and OTC Listed February 2007
- Investment/funding
- USDm 415 acquisition
- Front Puffin and management company USDm 210,
- Crystal Ocean USDm 90,
- Sea Cat and Sea Jaguar USDm 36 and
- Working capital USDm 79
- To be financed with
- Equity USDm 180
- 1. pri. bank debt USDm 105
- 2. pri. Bond USDm 130
Sea Production Mgmt
Mgmt agr.
FPSO Front Puffin (Under conversion) Contract
with AED Oil Ltd for Puffin field (2 yrs 4 x
1yr opt.) 1st oil expected 7/07
FPSO Crystal Ocean (Operating) On bareboat
charter toAnzon, AustraliaPresently at Basker
Manta field in the Bass Strait(3 yrs 2 x 1 yr
opt) - world wide trading
M/V Sea Cat Aframax tanker Spot
market Commercial management and technical
supervision by Frontline
M/V Sea Jaguar Aframax tanker Spot
market Commercial management and technical
supervision by Frontline
16Company overview
Frontline 33
Investors 67
- Floated and OTC listed in January 2007
- Investment / funding
- USDm 476 acquisition
- HL vessels USDm 100
- Suezmax vessels USDm 38
- To be financed with
- Equity USDm 180
- 1. pri. bank debt USDm 120
- 2. pri. Bond USDm 110
- Seller credit USDm 80
Sealift Ltd. (Bermuda)
Sealift Management BV
Mgmt agr)
Sealift Traveller BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline
to Aug 07 Delivery Jan 08
Sealift Comor BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline
to Nov 07 Delivery May 08
Sealift Marble Commercial technical mgt
agreementwith FRO Option for HL conversion Jan
09E
Sealift Sunda Under conversion Delivery Apr 07
Sealift Target BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline
to May 07 Delivery Sep 07
Sealift Granite Commercial technical mgt
agreementwith FROOption for HL conversion Sep
08E
Suezmax sister vessels
) Temporary management agreement with Frontline
Management
17Key figures
Financial
- Cash dividend paid in total gt USD 39.05 per
share - Spin off paid in total gt USD 20.44 per share
- Share price 22.03.2007 gt USD 35,10
- Cash dividend 2006 gt USD 7.55 per share
- Spin off SFL gt USD 2.79 based on share prices
of USD 26 23.02.2007
18Return on Equity
19The Frontline Share
- Share price 35.10 as of date 22/03/07
- Shares outstanding 74,825,169
- Trading volume (22/03/07) 1,034,600 shares
- No. shareholders 3.268
- Market cap. 2,626 million
- Enterprise value 4,900 million
- EBITDA 2006 866 million
- EPS 2006 6.90
- P/E 5.09
- EV/EBITDA 5.66
- Cash Yield (declared) 21.51
Graph to be included
Source Oslo Stock Exchange
20Entering the doldrums or steering clear ?
The Market
- Q4 relatively weak in both segments
- Stable fleet growth for Suezmaxes in 06 (y/y)
- Lower fleet growth for VLCCs in 06 (y/y)
- External factors
- Stock fluctuations
- Oil price movements
- Warm weather
- Reduced delays
- Absence of Hurricanes
- Geopolitical tension reduced
- Official OPEC cuts
- Oil demand at 85.5 mbd in 4Q06 (1.5 y/y)
- Stable demand increase expected
/day
Q1
Q4
/day
Q1
Q4
Source Clarkson, IEA
21VLCC
Fleet Update
- Existing fleet
- 1 VLCC delivered in Jan 2007
- 160 SH vs 320 DH
- Orderbook
- Total orderbook at 162 VLCCs
- 2 VLCCs ordered in Jan 2007
34 of Existing
Source Fearnleys (Bulk Fleet Update, 31 Jan 2007)
22Suezmax
Fleet Update
- Existing fleet
- 6 Suezmaxes delivered in Jan 2007
- 70 SH vs 280 DH
- Orderbook
- Total orderbook at 127 Suezmaxes
- 8 Suezmaxes ordered in Jan 2007
36 of Existing
Source Fearnleys (Bulk Fleet Update, 31 Jan 2007)
23Trading within the 50-60/bbl price band
Oil Market
- Slightly improved sentiment
- OPEC Production Cuts in November 2006 and
February 2007
24Crude Oil Inventory
Oil Market
- Falling but still at high levels
- Strategic oil reserves
- China
- USA
Source IEA
25Demand growth adjusted up
Oil Market
World Oil Demand Annual Growth
- Growth to average 2.0 in 2006 2011
- Strong demand growth in Asia and ME
- Stable in remaining regions
- OECD countries remain the largest consumer as a
group - US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs)
- 2.7 growth in tonn-miles in 2007 (3.0 in 2006)
Source IEA, Energy Intelligence, Fearnleys
26Robust world economy
International Economy
GDP Annual Growth
- Mild deceleration in the United States
- Europe and Asia will resist US slowdown well
- Temporary inflation downturn due to lower oil
prices - Interest rates
- Fed is expected to cut in the autumn
- ECB expected to continue its rate hikes
Source OECD, SEB
27Outlook
- Macro
- Healthy macroeconomic environment despite GPD
growth cooling off - Large orderbook, but 2007 not that bad
- Single hull phase out
- Uncertainty on the supply side of oil / Further
OPEC cuts unlikely - Political Stability
- Supply side major determinant for rates and
values - Frontline
- Spin-offs / one off profits
- Single hull exposure
- Orderbook
- Breakeven rates
- T/C coverage / spot
- Business opportunities
FFA Curve
Source Imarex, 23 February 2007
28Q A