Technology Forecasting

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TechnologyForecasting

• Causal
• Models

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Causal Models

• Causal models seek to forecast the future
  behavior of a system by portraying the dynamic,
  time-dependent behavior of the system.
• Models of physical systems rely heavily on the
  laws of physics and chemistry
• Models of socio-economic systems rely heavily on
  empirical data and postulated or observed
  cause/effect relationships.

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Jay Forrester

• Jay Forrester claims that feedback systems are
  the basic structure of socio-economic systems
• his approach is called System Dynamics
• it is highly controversial
• it is more art than science
• it is misused (intentionally and unintentionally)
  by many people

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System Dynamics

• System Dynamics is a beginning
• better than mental models
• ill defined
• assumptions not clearly defined or stated
• difficult to communicate to others
• cannot be effectively experimented with
• system dynamics models are a start at overcoming
  these deficiencies
• supports what-if gaming
• explore consequences of decisions

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Feedback Systems

• Open System (no feedback)
• not aware of its own performance
• past action has no influence on future action
• Examples
• toaster - doesnt know if it burns toast
• watch - not self correcting
• auto with no driver

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Feedback Systems

• Closed Systems (feedback system)
• Influenced by its own past behavior
• Examples
• heating system and thermostat
• auto with driver

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Negative Feedback

• Goal Seeking
• Fluctuations and Instability
• Continuously responding to performance against
  goal
• Examples
• Driver staying on the road
• Rocket guidance
• Government Policies

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Positive Feedback

• Generates growth
• more begets more
• Examples
• Chain reaction in a nuclear explosion
• Multiplication of rats
• Per capita consumption of energy and natural
  resources

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Fundamental Concept of a Feedback Loop

• A decision, that controls
• an action, which influences
• a level of a variable, which yields
• information, which influences the next decision
• SD diagram to be shown in class

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World Dynamics

• In 1972 as a part of a think tank known as the
  Club of Rome, Forrester (and others) created a
  world model and published results from his
  experimentation under the title Limits of Growth.
• It was controversial to say the least!

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Other System Dynamics Models

• Urban Dynamics
• National Economy
• Industrial Dynamics