SCONUL Annual Conference 2006 HE The next twenty years

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• Men plan God laughs

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• 2006 - 2010 Sorted
• 2011 - 2015 Halcyon Days
• 2016 - 2020 Tricky
• 2021 - 2025 Very Tricky
• .but it all depends..

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years
Looking ahead five years we all overestimate the
rate of change BUT Looking ahead ten years we all
underestimate the rate of change
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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• Easy Predictions
• Student numbers will increase
• Fees will rise
• Demand will outstrip supply
• Popularity of subjects will vary
• There will be more e-learning
• No mergers
• World supply of HE

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• Demography
• E Learning
• The rest of the World

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years
STUDENT DEMAND Full Time UG headcount projections
from demographic increase
Hepi
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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years
Student Demand Impact of curriculum 2000 etc. on
qualifying leaver rate and general school
improvement. Difficult to be confident of trends
but mid point projections suggest 1990/91 21
1994/95 28 1999/00 30 2002/03 33
2010/11 38-40 75,000 extra
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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years
Accession Countries yield 15,000 by 2010/11 So
increased demand looks like Demography 87,000
Accession 15,000 Qualifications 75,000
177,000 FT UG Hepi
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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• E Learning Issues
• The nature of knowledge
• Is time shifting and place shifting enough
• Professional help in the management of knowledge
  even more important
• Is there a still to be invented killer
  application?
• Borderless?

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• World Supply of HE
• Who is world class?
• Free Trade in HE
• Are Universities like the state airlines of
  1980s?

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• Shanghai Jaio Tong Top Ten et al
• Harvard
• Cambridge
• Stanford
• University of California Berkley
• MIT
• Cal Tech
• Columbia
• Princeton
• Chicago
• Oxford
• 23. Imperial
• 26 UCL
• 47 Edinburgh

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• Snapshots
• Harvard Income 2500 million
• Endowments 19300 million
• 6500 undergraduates 12000 graduates
• Stanford Income 2300 million
• Raised 486 million new endowments last
  year
• SUNY No. of Students 410,000
• No. of Degree courses 6688
• No. of Faculty Staff 28,000

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• International Student Recruitment
• Top Six Countries
• USA 31 475,000
• UK 15 225,000
• Germany 13 199,000
• France 10 147,000
• Australia 8 120,000
• Japan 4 63,000
• OECD 2003 - Education at a Glance

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years

• But
• Flow is mainly from developing to developed
• Mainly for education in English medium
• Dont know outflow from UK It will increase
• E Learning is borderless
• This is a supply of a service and trade
• Home market highly protectionist
• Universities are the state airlines of twenty
  first century

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SCONUL Annual Conference 2006HE The next twenty
years
2021 - 2025 Our USP will be. An Antiques
Roadshow model of Higher Education with a
motto DOCIMUS IN LINGUA ANGLIAE AMERICANI NON
SUNT