Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Meteorology

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Naval Oceanography Excellence in (Tropical)
Meteorology

• Rear Admiral Dave Titley
• Commander
• Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command
• Presented to
• 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
• Charleston, SC
• 3 March 2008

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OverviewCommunications and Cooperation

• The United States Navy is committed to excellence
  in operational meteorology
• Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else
  really matters
• We are interdependent with our partners and
  stakeholders
• Part of the nations weather infrastructure
• The Future is bright and very different from
  the past
• Forecasters Moving up the value chain
• How we communicate our information
• Ensembles ? Risk management
• Battlespace on Demand ? Decision Superiority
• Naval Oceanography a great place to work!

We are the Navys Operational Science Community
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Naval Oceanography
KNOWLEDGE-CENTRIC
WARFIGHTING FOCUSED
Anti-Submarine Warfare

• Naval Oceanography
• 600M operating budget
• 12 ships
• 1950 military, 1350 civilians

Naval Special Warfare
Mine Warfare
ISR
Navigation
Precise Time and Astrometry

• Teamwork
• Technical Excellence
• Clear Communications

Fleet Operations
Maritime Operations

• Manage Risk
• Measure Results
• Continuous Improvement

Aviation Operations
FNMOC
NAVO
CUS
USNO
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Naval Meteorology

• Numerical Wx Prediction
• Maritime / Polar
• Aviation

• Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
• Fleet Operations
• Expeditionary

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Numerical Weather Prediction

• Global
• Regional / Relocatable
• Aerosol / Dispersion
• Tropical Cyclone
• Coupled Wave and Ocean
• Ensembles
• Information Assurance
• Tight RD Ops Connection

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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

• 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007

26 TCs
6 TCs
24 TCs

• 35 40 decrease in track errors over past 10
  years
• 72 hour track error lt 150 nm in 2007
• Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan

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Communication

• Paradox of Accuracy
• Better warnings may not equate to less damage
• How to best communicate probabilistic
  information?
• The Weather Research Challenge
• Track Intensity Structure Coupling
  Better Sea, Swell Storm Surge Fcsts

• The Communications Research Challenge
• Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical
  Gale, etc.
• TC COR ambiguity - Hazardous vs.
• Destructive vs.
• Hurricane Winds

Everything should be made as simple as possible,
but not simpler. -Albert Einstein
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Safety Operations

• Smart
• Sensing
• Forecasting / Automation
• Communications
• Partnering
• NWS
• USAF
• Other Countries

300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets
Officers Chiefs Junior Enlisted
Civilians
Total
27 22 179
12 240
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Partnerships

• Navy values the partnerships and interdependence
  with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in
  meteorology we cant do this alone!
• JTWC A success story for over 50 years
• USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise
• National Weather Service forecasts are the
  backbone of the Navys installation resource
  protection program.
• 5 Day TC forecasts
• NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF)
• Participation in next generation national weather
  forecast model with NOAA and USAF
• Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member
  to the Nations tropical cyclone forecast
  ensemble.
• ATCF, Sat Viewer
• International

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The Future

• Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9
• Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30 ? T479L60)
• 4DVAR (NAVDAS AR)
• Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP)
• WW3 Upgrades
• CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS ? 22 TFLOPS)
• People
• Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air
  Stations
• B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors
• In-house forecasting training
• Ensembles Communication
• Typhoon forecasts
• Experiments
• NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research
  Office
  (PRO)

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People Technology

• Partnering with the Science, Technology, and
  Research and Development communities to
• Maximize operational impact
• Minimize time to transition into our skilled
  workforce
• Increased model skill an opportunity to do our
  job differently
• Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts
  and routes
• Automate environmental impact assessment
  provides rapid situational awareness
• Training and education of skilled 21st century
  weather forecasters
• How to best use ensembles
• How to best use forecast information to inform
  decision-makers
• In combat
• In risk-management
• In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)

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Summary

• Navy remains committed to excellence in
  meteorology
• Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with
  NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders
• Participation in next generation national
  forecast model (NUOPC)
• Ocean forecasting
• Defining the role of the 21st century forecaster
• Battlespace on Demand
• Rapid transition advanced ST discoveries into
  operations
• We are hiring!
• There is opportunity
  everywhere we look
  in the tropical field!

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Questions?