Pakistan

1
Pakistans National Accounts

1. Overview
2. Production, value added, GDP, GNP
3. Investment and consumption
4. Challenges/Difficulties
5. Plan For Implementation SNA1993/2008

2
Framework of Pakistans NA

• Regular Activities
• GDP/GNP (factor costs) by industrial origin (by
  sector)
• Expenditure on GNP (market prices)
• GDP implicit deflator a measure of inflation
• Estimates of GFCF (market prices) by industrial
  origin for private public sector and for
  general government
• Composition of general government consumption
  expenditure
• Other Activities
• Input-Output Tables

3
CROPS
Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Gram, Maize,
etc. Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds,
Condiments, etc.
Major crops Minor crops
Intermediate Consumption
Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport
Charges, etc.
Provincial Agriculture Irrigation Departments,
IRSA, WAPDA, Federal Directorate of Fertilizer,
Pesticides Association, etc.
Sources
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
4
LIVESTOCK
Cattle and their products Poultry and their
products
Composition
Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates (Grains,
Oilcakes), Grass Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc.
Intermediate Consumption
Livestock Division, Agriculture Census
Organization, Pakistan Poultry Association etc.
Sources
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
5
FISHING
Fish, Prawn, Shrimps, crabs, etc. from Ocean,
Coastal and Offshore water, Fish farms, Rivers,
Canals, Lakes, Ponds, and inundated tracts, etc.

• Composition
• Marine
• Inland

Intermediate Consumption
Salt, Ice, Fuel Lubricants, Medicines,
Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges.
Marine Fisheries Department, Provincial Fisheries
Departments Federal Bureau of Statistics.
Sources
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
6
FORESTRY
Timber, Firewood, Ephedra, Grass Grazing,
Resin, Medicinal herbs, and other Minor Forest
Products/Output.
Composition
Intermediate Consumption
Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc.
Federal Inspectorate General of
Forests. Provincial Forest Departments.
Sources
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
7
MINING QUARRYING
Crude oil, Natural Gas, Coal including other
minerals, e.g. Rock Salt, Lime Stone, Dolomite,
Gypsum, Fire clay, Phosphate, Marble, and Surface
Minerals.
Composition
Intermediate Consumption
Blasting Material, Fuel and Lubricants, etc.
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources,
OGDC, Occidental, Pirkoh, Mari Gas, Coal and
other Mineral Establishments, Provincial Mineral
Departments
Sources
Gross Value Added
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
8
LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING
Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Leather, Wood
Wood Products, Paper Boards, Chemicals,
Pharmaceutical, Petroleum, Metal, Engineering,
Electrical, Automobile and other Industrial
products/ groups.
Composition
Ministry of Industries, OCAC, Central Board of
Revenue, Provincial Bureaux of Statistics,
Federal Bureau of Statistics.
Sources
For calculating growth rate of value added,
Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) is computed
based on production data of 100 items having
75.07 weight (bench-mark 1999-2000) of Large
Scale Manufacturing Sector.
9
SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING
All un-registered small and household
manufacturing establishments
Composition
Benchmark Estimates of Gross Value Added
Based on special study and SHMI Surveys.
Annual Growth
7.51 based on Study on SSMI 1999-2000
10
CONSTRUCTION
All major construction activities including
repairs, additions/alterations, Land Improvement
Buildings Roads, Bridges, Streets Highways
Runways Transport Railway Tracts Telephone,
Power, Gas, Oil, Utility lines Canals Dams
Harbour Barrages etc.
Composition
Federal, Provincial Local Bodies, Development
Authorities, Major Public Private Construction
Establishments, Federal Bureau of Statistics.
Sources
Value added coefficients of Investment by kind of
construction are multiplied to Investment made in
that activity during the year. Value additions of
all activities are summed up.
11
ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION WATER SUPPLY
Electricity, Gas distribution and Water supply
Composition
Intermediate Consumption
Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc.
Sources Electricity Gas Water
WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, Pak Steel, IPPs and Captive
Power units. Sui Southern and Sui Northern Gas
Cos., Mari Gas etc. IRSA, Provincial Irrigation
Departments.
Gross Value Added
Value of Electric, Gas Water Supply (plus)
Misc. Receipts (minus) Industrial cost
Electricity/Gas purchases.
12
TRANSPORT, STORAGE COMMUNICATION
Railway, Air, Water, Road, Pipeline Transport,
Storage Communication
Composition
Sources
Pakistan Railways, PNSC, KPT, PQA, KICT, QICT,
PICT,CAA, PIA other Airlines. NTRC, Asia
Petroleum, PARCO, etc. Boats. PTCL, NTC,Mobile
Phones,ISPs,PCOs, Post Offices, Courier Services,
NLC, Town Committees (for Non-mechanized)
Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus)
intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
13
FINANCE INSURANCE
State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks, DFIs,
Insurance Companies, Modaraba Leasing Companies.
Composition
State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks,
Development Financial Institutions, Life and
General Insurance Cos, Modarabas Leasing
Companies.
Sources
Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus)
intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added
14
WHOLESALE RETAIL TRADE
Composition All Agricultural, Industrial Produce and Imports
Sources Provincial Governments Federal Bureau of Statistics
Value Added Total value of trade margins applied on the marketed portions of Agriculture and Industrial Output as well as Imports.
15
OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS
Coverage Housing Units (rented as well as self occupied) and in urban and rural areas
Sources Housing Census Rent Surveys
Value Added Gross Rentals (No. of Dwellings multiplied by average annual rent (minus) Value of current repairs and maintenance.
16
PUBLIC ADMN. DEFENCE
Composition Federal, Provincial and District Governments and Cantonment Boards.
Sources Budget documents of Federal, Provincial, District Governments and Cantonment Boards.
Gross Value Added Sum of the compensation of employees (all Civil and Defence) (Plus) Depreciation on Govt. fixed assets
17
COMMUNITY, SOCIAL PRIVATE SERVICES
Composition Education, Health, Business (Accounting, Auditing, Advertising, Photography etc.), Recreation, Social, Personal Domestic Services, etc.
Sources Ministry of Education, PMDC, PNC, PBA, PEC, ACA, PAA, PHA, etc.
Gross Value Added Per Worker Value Added multiplied by Number of Workers
18
Expenditure on GNP

• Private Final Consumption Expenditure
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation
• Changes in Stocks
• Exports (minus imports) of Good and Services
• Net Factor Income from Rest of the World

19
Private Final Consumption Expenditure

• Final Consumption of goods and services of
  household and private non-profit institutions
  serving households
• Measured through
• Residually

20
Government Final Consumption Expenditure

• Current expenditures on goods and services by all
  the departments and establishments of
• Federal Government
• Provincial Governments
• District Governments
• Cantonments

21
Weaknesses in methods

• Value added of Banks not in line with SNA
• Value added includes holding gains and property
  incomes (? SNA)
• Construction no survey
• Extrapolations with doubtful assumptions
• Constant prices single deflation, only
• No PIM for calculations related to capital stock
• No independent calculation of private consumption
• Some terms are outdated, especially GNP

22
Weaknesses in the data base

• Economic Census of partial use, only
• Small scale manufacturing very old data
• Extrapolating of Large Scale Manufacturing via
  QIM no sub-classification by industry
• Producer Price Index poor
• Few sub-annual figures (QIM and LFS, only)
• Business register is missing

23
The two main revisions overview
Revision 1 Revision 1 Revison 2 2012 tentatively
part 1 (in FY 2006-07 and following) part 2 (in FY 2008-09) Revison 2 2012 tentatively
Launch Quarterly National Accounts implement basic prices and other concepts of the SNA (e.g. FISIM) implement new surveys (especially in manufacturing) fully and uniformly apply PSIC 3 (ISIC Rev 3) and other classifications Exploit GFS for adapting PSIC and SNA, start implementing SUT / IO continue collecting data on GFCF revisit concept and methods of production statistics Launch Quarterly National Accounts implement basic prices and other concepts of the SNA (e.g. FISIM) implement new surveys (especially in manufacturing) fully and uniformly apply PSIC 3 (ISIC Rev 3) and other classifications Exploit GFS for adapting PSIC and SNA, start implementing SUT / IO continue collecting data on GFCF revisit concept and methods of production statistics Launch Quarterly National Accounts implement basic prices and other concepts of the SNA (e.g. FISIM) implement new surveys (especially in manufacturing) fully and uniformly apply PSIC 3 (ISIC Rev 3) and other classifications Exploit GFS for adapting PSIC and SNA, start implementing SUT / IO continue collecting data on GFCF revisit concept and methods of production statistics
introduce new price basis FY 2006 07 implement new surveys (especially construction) implement new methods of extrapolation (esp. QIM) implement independent calculation of private consumption reconcile figures NA with figures SUT introduce new price basis FY 2006 07 implement new surveys (especially construction) implement new methods of extrapolation (esp. QIM) implement independent calculation of private consumption reconcile figures NA with figures SUT
apply new PSIC (ISIC Rev 4) and fully allocate public sector to industries implement first institutional sector accounts use IO for consistency and CF and deflators introduce and improve double deflation and apply quality adjustment implement PIM and resume capital stock calculation enhance scope and quality of expenditure side of GDP implement new surveys and introduce new price basis apply new PSIC (ISIC Rev 4) and fully allocate public sector to industries implement first institutional sector accounts use IO for consistency and CF and deflators introduce and improve double deflation and apply quality adjustment implement PIM and resume capital stock calculation enhance scope and quality of expenditure side of GDP implement new surveys and introduce new price basis apply new PSIC (ISIC Rev 4) and fully allocate public sector to industries implement first institutional sector accounts use IO for consistency and CF and deflators introduce and improve double deflation and apply quality adjustment implement PIM and resume capital stock calculation enhance scope and quality of expenditure side of GDP implement new surveys and introduce new price basis
24
Valuation Principles

• Factor Cost
• Market Prices

25
Price and other indicators used

• CPI, PPI, WPI, Unit Price Index of
  Imports/Exports

26
Current Base Period

• 1999-2000
• The work on change of base 1999-2000 to 2005-06
  is in progress.

27
Rebasing/Linking Practice

• First base of National Accounts was 1959-60
• Second 1980-81
• Third 1999-2000
• Fourth 2005-06 (work in progress)
• The series from 1980-81backward has been Backward
  Linked/Revised.
• No Backward Link from 1999-2000 has been made.
• The series from 2005-06 will be linked/revised
  backward and forward.

28
Challenges and Difficulties Faced

• Difficulty in Collection of data for compilation
  of accounts.
• Some data are given by secondary sources, only.
  Government Finance Statistics is with MoF.
• No regular print productions.
• Shortage of resources (Manpower, Financial).
• Public confidence in the data is poor.

29
Type of Technical Assistance Required

• Pakistan may be considered in the International
  Training Programmes on National Accounts.

30
Plans for 93/2008 SNA Implementation

• 1993 SNA is currently followed
• GDP/GNP at current factor cost/ constant factor
  cost and market prices are compiled.
• It has been decided to implement the SNA 93
  during the current change of base i.e., 2005-06
• SNA 93 will be implemented in phases.
• Adequate data and technical know how are the two
  main challenges for the implementation of SNA 93.
• Pakistan may be considered in all international
  training programmes of National Accounts.