NEMACs Chocolate Friday Presentation

1
Leadership, Ethics and Weather Forecasting
NEMACs Chocolate Friday Presentation February
17, 2006
2
Leadership Defined

• Leadership is an influence relationship among
  leaders and their collaborators who intend real
  changes that reflect their mutual purposes.
  (Rost, 1993)
• A leader is defined as any person who influences
  individuals and groups within an organization,
  helps them in the establishment of goals and
  guides them towards the achievement of these
  goals (Nahavandi, 2003)
• A relational process of people together
  attempting to accomplish change or make a
  difference to benefit the common good.
  (Komives, Lucas and McMahon, 1998)

3
Leadership Studies

• Interdisciplinary
• Communication
• Ethics
• Psychology I Intelligence and Personality
• Psychology II Motivation
• Global and Multicultural
• Political Science Power and Influence
• Philosophy and Classics
• Sociology and Anthropology
• Physics
• Environmental Sciences
• Biology

4
Leaderships Essential Components

• Ethical Decision Making
• Understanding our Multicultural Society

5
Ethics Defined

• The study of moral obligations or of separating
  right from wrong.
• Ethics can also be a plural noun meaning the
  accepted guidelines of behavior for groups or
  institutions. In this sense, it means much the
  same as morals, which are an individuals
  determination of what is right from wrong morals
  are influenced by a persons values. Ethics
  becomes the vehicle for converting values into
  action.
• A leader should do the right thing, as perceived
  by a consensus of reasonable people.

6
Right Versus Right Paradigm Dilemmas

• Truth versus loyalty
• Individual versus community
• Short-term versus long-term
• Justice versus mercy

7
Right vs. Right Resolution Theories

• Most Useful Philosophical Theories
• The Utilitarian Approach (Ends-based thinking)
• The Rights Approach (Rules-based thinking)
• The Golden Rule Approach (Care-based thinking)

8
Sample Fact Pattern
Youre eating an ice cream cone at a shopping
center and youve nearly finished except for the
unappealing bottom of the cone. If you hold it
much longer, the melted ice cream will begin
running down your hand and along your arm.
Theres not a trash container to be seen. There
is, however, a low hedge beside you, under which
are lodged a few bits of trash. You consider
throwing the cone into the hedge but not until
(being in an unusually philosophical mood) you
ask yourself what the three resolution principles
would counsel you to do.
9
Application of Theories
Ends-based Thinking A quick assessment of
consequences suggests that (1) the shopping
center probably employs sweepers to clean up the
trash, and (2) the hedge is probably visited
regularly by squirrels, birds, and ants. Your
little piece of cone will hardly make any
difference to the hedge or to the general
neatness of the center It will, in other words,
be a largely inconsequential act. Decision Throw
it away.
10
Application of Theories
Rules-based Thinking You are setting the standard
for the entire world. Throw it in the hedge, and
you must be prepared to have everyone, from now
to eternity, throw away the bottom of their ice
cream cones under hedges, until shoppers all
across the world are up to their eyeballs in
soggy cone bottoms. Decision Do not throw it
away.
11
Application of Theories
Care-based Thinking How do you want others to
behave? Dont do what you dont want others
doing. How would you react if that woman ahead
of you flipped her cone into the hedge? What
about the child behind you who sees you? Dont
you want other adults to set good examples for
your children, even in situations where an action
that might be construed as a bad example is
probably pardonable and might even be
justified? Decision Do not throw it away.
12
Weather Forecasts and Public Warnings
Dilemma Paradigm Truth versus loyalty Individual
versus community? Short-term versus
long-term Justice versus mercy
13
Forecast Limitations
0 to 12 hours? 12 to 24 hours? 24 to 48
hours? Less than one week? Greater than one
week? Specific areas? Amount of
precipitation? Strength of winds?
14
Threshold Leadership Questions

• How should leaders make a decision under
  uncertainty when an error might harm someone?
• How should leaders communicate about this
  uncertainty and risk to citizens?
• How should society respond to the problem of
  scientific uncertainty, as well as to the
  tensions raised as money and lawsuits challenge
  efforts to incorporate more evidence into regular
  forecasts?

15
Application of Theories to Public Warning
Ends-based Thinking A quick assessment of
consequences suggests that (1) we cannot predict
with enough specificity to be helpful, and (2)
people have grown immune to these warnings
because of prior inaccuracies, and (3) any
warning will create some human injury due to
anxiety and efforts to leave the area, and (4)
the warning will have an adverse impact on
business, and (5) civic leaders get angry about
having to make these decisions based on such
uncertainty. Decision Wait as long as possible

16
Application of Theories to Public Warning
Rule-based Thinking We have a standard policy of
alerting decision makers x number of days in
advance. We dont speak specifically about the
threat until y days in advance. We use numerous
computer models to track a storms direction. We
dont declare a state of emergency until after
the storm hits. These procedures provide
consistency of approach. Decision We will give
information and warnings on specified timetables
and based on predetermined events.
17
Application of Theories to Public Warning
Care-based Thinking We will tell the public
everything we know about how the storm will
affect them without generating unnecessary
anxiety and fear. We will give you specific
information on the nature of the warning and its
meaning. The warning will be focused in terms of
time, location, possible outcome, and will be
accompanied by practical instructions as to how
the public should react. Decision Tell the
public what we know, when we know it, if we can
also tell them what it means to them.
18
Review of Public Warnings?

• What is common practice today? How has it
  changed?
• What was done for Katrina?
• Do you see reliance on one particular
  philosophical theory?
• Are we forthcoming in providing more information
  as scientific breakthroughs allow?

19
Similar Situations?

• Terror Alerts
• Bird Flu
• Hazardous Material Disposal
• Air Quality
• Asteroids
• Global Warming

20
Attitudes Behaviors Towards Disaster
Preparedness

• 67 said very important to take steps to
  prepare for a catastrophic disaster such as a
  hurricane.
• Only 22 have taken the initiative to receive
  specific information or to train on disaster
  preparedness and feel prepared for a catastrophic
  disaster.
• Approximately 50 dont have information about
  emergency plans at work or their childrens
  schools.
• Most Americans believe being prepared for all
  types of disasters strengthens our national
  security.
• Most Americans said they would get prepared if
  it were made easy.
• Prepared for the American Red Cross by Wirthlin
  Worldwide, July 2004.

21
The Bottom Line

• These are very tough choices--right versus
  right.
• We cannot duck them--we must face them.
• Once we face them--we must resolve them.
• Beyond getting it resolved--we must get it
  right.
• In getting it right, we must have the courage to
  stand up to the tough choices.
• There are no magic answer systems--moral
  principles wont provide for precise decision
  making.
• Making ethical decisions depends on judgment,
  character, moral awareness, perception,
  discrimination, just to name just a few.
• But, the above three principles can help to
  guide your task of conscious reflection on moral
  choice.

22
Leadership, Ethics and Weather Forecasting
Thank you!