Polling%20and%20the%20Ballot%20In%20Venezuela

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Polling and the Ballot In Venezuela

• Mark Weisbrot
• November 10, 2006

2
Recall Election

• National referendum on whether to recall
  President Chavez, held in Venezuela on August 15,
  2004

3
Results

• Results, according to the National Electoral
  Council 58.3-41.4 reconfirming Chavez.
• Carter Center and the Organization of American
  States observers confirmed that election was free
  and fair, and without evidence of fraud

4
Pre-Election Reporting

• Pre-election news reports said results were too
  close to call

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How likely is it that a random sample of the
electorate polled before the election would find
the result too close to call?
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The Penn, Schoen, and Berland Exit Poll

• The Venezuelan opposition calls election
  fraudulent and cites an exit poll conducted by
  Penn, Schoen Berland Associates, Inc.
• Sample 20,382 voters
• margin of error lt1
• Results 59 favor recall, 41 against

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(No Transcript)
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The probability of the Penn, Schoen, and Berland
exit poll getting its result from sampling error
is far less than 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000
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Penn, Schoen, and Berlands Response

• The firm has maintained that their exit poll was
  correct and that the actual election results were
  fraudulent

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Use of the False Exit Poll

• Sumate deliberately distributed this erroneous
  Penn, Schoen, and Berland exit poll data in
  order to build up, not only the expectation of
  victory, but also to influence the people still
  standing in line
• -- Jimmy Carter
• (National Catholic Reporter, 9/03/04)

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Penn, Schoen and Berland Still Polling in
Venezuela

• Recent P, S B poll shows Chavez ahead 50-37,
  Financial Times reports.
• However, the pollsters concluded that Mr.
  Chavezs real support level was likely to be much
  lower because an important number of potential
  voters are fearful of criticising him.
  Financial Times, 9/29/06
• Note the rest of the international media ignored
  this recent poll.

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Polling Firms Most Often Cited by the Media, Not
Described as Partisan

• Datanalisis
• He President Chavez has to be killed, he
  said, using his finger to stab the table in his
  office far above this capital's filthy streets.
  He has to be killed.
• Jose Antonio Gil Yepes, President of
  Datanalisis
• Los Angeles Times, Opposition Wishing for
  Ultimate End to Chavez, July 7, 2002

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Polling Firms Most Often Cited by the Media, Not
Described as Partisan
(2) AKSA (Alfredo Keller SA) After the coup and
in the midst of the oil strike to topple the
Venezuelan government (December 2002), describing
the conflict as a fight to the death for power
between two counter-posed ideological forces an
authoritarian socialism with a spirit of revenge
against a democracy that is open to the
market. -- Alfredo Keller, President of
AKSA letter to Petroleum World (12/17/02)
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Conclusion

• Polling in Venezuela has seen serious abuses,
  including possible falsification of results
• Media has not always exercised due diligence in
  scrutinizing and reporting on polls
• Good to look at pollsters past performance and
  methodology