Effects of SeaLevel Rise on Florida

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Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Florida

Adam Harpool GLY 1073 November 16, 2006
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What causes sea-level rise?

• Brought on by melting of ice sheets think ice
  in cup
  
• Not a theory already happening (i.e., Tuvalu)
• Heavily correlated to global warming

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Has it happened?

• In last century
• 10 20 cm rise
• (about 6-8 in)
• About 2-3 mm
• per year along US
• Atlantic Coast

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Range of Future Scenarios
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Best case vs. worst case

• Best case Rise of only .09 m
• Worst case Rise of .88 m just over 1 m
• Similar to Stella scenarios rapid reduction vs.
  BaU
  
• But in any event, levels are now rising 50
  faster than past century
  

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How vulnerable is Florida?

• Only DE (60 ft.) has a lower mean elevation than
  FL (100 ft.)

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Similar to Al Gores scenario
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Most Vulnerable Counties
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The Real Problem Coastal Development
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What will the effects be?

• Florida GSP 500 billion 4th largest in USA
  richest Southern state after TX
  
• Over 110 billion/year from real estate tourism
  brings 60 billion/year
  
• A 1 m rise would necessitate spending 8 billion
  to temporarily restore lost beaches
  
• South Florida, Cape Coral Area, Sarasota and
  Tampa/St. Pete alone count for 57 of personal
  income in FL
  
• Millions would have to relocate to where?

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Another problem Water Supply

• Our most urgent short-term problem?
• Triple Threat Low water table elevation sea
  rise (saltwater) Increased water usage
  
• In Hollywood, saltwater intrusion into Biscayne
  Aquifer

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Long-Term

• Over hundreds of years, melting will act as an
  auto-catalytic cycle
  
• Over 2-3 hundred years, Antarctica Greenland
  40 feet (12 meters) sea level rise
  
• Florida no longer exists as we know it

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Florida long-term BaU
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Mitigation

• Minimize coastal development (zoning, impact
  fees, etc.)
  
• Swamp/marsh restoration projects (aquifer
  health)
  
• (Of course) Minimize greenhouse gas emissions
  (Florida ranks 5th in USA)

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Conclusion

• Without action, sea levels likely to rise 1 m in
  next 100-150 years
  
• In Florida, a 1 m sea level rise will displace
  millions and cause billions in damage
  
• In short term, damage to aquifer through
  saltwater intrusion should be our main concern
  
• Floridas 10 most vulnerable counties have 46
  of states population, 57 of personal income
  
• Easy fix less coastal development
• Ultimate fix stop/reverse global warming

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Simulate Sea-Level Rise

• http//www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/cl
  imate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_leve
  l_rise.htm
  

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References/Works Cited

• Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Hassol, Susan J,
  Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Group,
  Cambridge University Press, 2004
  
• Costal Zones and Sea Level Rise, Environment
  Protection Agency, http//epa.gov/climatechange/e
  ffects/coastal/index.html, 2006 Oct. 19
  
• Saving Floridas Vanishing Shores, Florida
  Environment Protection Agency, March 2002
  
• Climate Change and Sea Level, Weiss and
  Overpeck, Department of Geosciences, University
  of Arizona http//www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/re
  search/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/
  sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm