Sea Level Rise in the North East

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Sea Level Rise in the North East

• Jennifer Iacono

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• In the past century, seas have risen six inches
  (15 centimeters), a pace ten times faster than
  the average over the last 2,000 years.

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Sea Level Change in Recent Geological Time
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Temperature Change
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Global Warming

By 2050 15 to 35 percent of the 1,103 species
studied will be at risk of extinction
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In the last century, the average temperature has
climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius around the
world.
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Carbon dioxide in the Earths atmosphere has
increased about 30 enhancing the atmospheres
ability to trap heat.
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Partial Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets

• Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise
  has resulted from the melting of mountain
  glaciers.

St. Marys Lake in Montanas Glacier National Park
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Thermal Expansion

• Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion
  of ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean
  temperatures.

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And If the Ice Sheets Melted

• Greenland Ice Sheet -raise oceans 20 feet
• West Antarctic Ice Sheet - 20 feet
• East Antarctica - nearly 200 feet
• All the planet's alpine glaciers combined - 1.5
  feet

March 5-7, 2002
Jan 31, 2002
Larson B Ice Shelf
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If Nothing Melted at all

• A Global temperature increase of 1.5 to 4.5
  degrees Celsius, would still raise the seas one
  foot due to thermal expansion.

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Yellow is a high estimate
Blue is historic sea level rise
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Low-lying Coastal Areas that have Already
Experienced a Relative Rise in Sea Level
Caused by subsidence of the land through
geological processes or extraction of underground
oil or water.
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What Countries Are at Risk?
"We in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the
Caribbean contribute little or nothing to the
problem, and yet we will be the first to suffer.
Our survival is at stake. --Bikenibeu
Paeniu Prime Minister of Tuvalu, a South Pacific
island nation
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Bangladesh
Loss of land due to future sea level rise in
Bangladesh (1m and 3m).

• A one meter rise in sea level would inundate 17
  of Bangladesh and put 118 million people at risk.

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The Mid-Atlantic Region

• The highly populated Mid-Atlantic region is
  especially at risk, and it is predicted to see a
  0.09-0.88 meters rise in sea level over the next
  100 years (EEA 2004).

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Why the Mid-Atlantic?

• The mid-Atlantic is experiencing a greater rate
  of relative sea level rise because the entire
  region is sinking.
• During the Ice Age, the mass of the glaciers
  caused an upward bulge around the edges, and part
  of the continent has caused adjacent areas to
  subside.

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The United States
Along most of the U.S. coast, sea level has been
rising 2.5-3.0 mm per year, amounting to 10-12
inches per century.
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Vulnerable Mid Atlantic
Maryland coast
New Jersey
The areas depicted in red (1.3 meters above mean
sea level) will be above mean sea level for at
least 100, and probably 200, years.
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Delaware Bay
Mean spring high water (i.e., high tide during
new and full moons) is typically 60 cm above sea
level, the 1.3-meter contour would be flooded a
few times per month by a 70 cm rise in sea level.
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New Hampshire
Along the coast of New York, which typifies the
United States, sea level is likely to rise 26 cm
by 2050 and 55 cm by the year 2100.

New York
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What Would a Rise in Sea Level Do?

• (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands
• (2) erode shorelines
• (3) exacerbate coastal flooding
• (4) increase the salinity of estuaries and
  aquifers and otherwise impair water quality

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The Bruun Rule
Immediate inundation when sea level rises
Subsequent erosion due to sea level rise
Initial condition
X necessary sand
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Erosion
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Flooding
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Sea Level Rise Increases Risk of Flooding Four
Ways

• (1) Higher base upon which storm surges would
  build surges would also penetrate farther inland
  (Kana et al. 1984).
• (2) Removal of protective barriers.
• (3) Losses of wetlands (Louisiana Wetland
  Protection Panel 1988).
• (4) Decreased drainage causes rainstorms and
  river surges (Titus et al. 1987).

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Billion Dollar US Floods
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Increased Salinity of Rivers, Bays, and Aquifers
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Impact on Water Table
A) Shifts the entire water table up 1 meter
B) Narrows the water table by 40 cm for every 1
cm that the sea level rises
C) Eliminates groundwater supplies for the lowest
islands
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Estimates of Rising Sea Level for US

• The EPAs low estimate the shoreline retreat
  from a one meter rise in sea level would cost the
  United States 270 to 475 billion dollars.

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Future of Bangladesh

• It is projected that by 2030 SLR would be about
  30 cm and by 2050 it would be about 50 cm.
• A 45-cm rise in mean sea level will lead to a
  potential loss of 15,668 km2 area (10.9) of the
  country exposing about 5.5 million people (5) of
  the country(IPCC).

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Conclusions

• Scientists and officials from some 70 nations
  have expressed indicated that in several
  noteworthy cases, the impacts could be
  disastrous that in a few cases impacts would be
  trivial but that for most coastal nations, at
  least for the foreseeable future, the impacts of
  sea level rise would be serious but manageable if
  appropriate actions are taken.