Political Geographic Religious Economic Demographic Simulation PGREDS

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• Political Geographic Religious Economic
  Demographic Simulation (PGREDS)
• James Panagos, Gnosys Inc.
• Robert Franceschini, Jackie Zhang, SAIC
• Brian Comer, Jim Grosse, RDECOM

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PGREDS
Background model
Actions that affect demographics
Influence on decision makers
Foreground Model

• PGREDS provides expert simulation and analysis of
  the Political, Geographic, Religious, Economic,
  Demographic and Public Health issues essential
  for implementing scenarios in a modern simulation
  environment.
• PGREDS is funded as a Phase II under the SBIR
  program (RDECOM).

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Enforcing Exclusion Zone Non-Combatant
Evacuation
Food Kitchen
Sentry Point
Guard - Guide for Refugees
Sentry Point
Fire Support
First Aid Health Post
Fire Support
Guard - Guide for Refugees
Fire Support
Command Post Reserve
Guard - Guide for Refugees
Sentry Point
Sentry Point
Guard - Guide for Refugees
Guard - Guide for Refugees
South
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Modeling SASO scenarios using conventional
simulation technology

• Conventional simulations handle many parts of the
  SASO scenario
• Representation of synthetic natural environment,
  physical models, behaviors
• What is missing is variability in behaviors due
  to cultural influences.
• Ways to account for these differences in a CGF
  simulation
• Completely script the scenario.
• Provide a different composed behavior for each
  cultural variant.
• Need a mechanism to compute a cultural model and
  then inject the results of that model into
  behavior sets.
• Model can be reused for many different scenarios
  and maintained.

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Related Work Systems

• Forces and Sides System Model
• Spectrum
• Deployable Exercise Support System (DEXES)
• INFORUM and NIDI

• Situational Influence Assessment Module (SIAM)
• Synthetic Environments for Analysis and
  Simulation (SEAS)
• Hofstede

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What PGREDS can Offer

• Systems interesting and useful from different
  focuses and perspectives.
• All above systems display one of two
  characteristics
• embedded as support modules in Simulation
  systems
• built as a standalone system with limited
  external interaction.
• PGREDS displays both characteristics
  simultaneously (Foreground/Background capability)
  while addressing expandability and connectivity
  issues faced by computer system designers.
• PGREDS brings together models and simulation
  systems.

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PGREDS Implementation Architecture
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PGREDS Process in Context
Text Document
Papers
Books
CGF
Natural Language Processor
Modify Behaviors
Answers
Answers
Resolver
Natural Language Processor
Text Document
AI-Based Resolver can substitute / complement
User judgment in checking whether answers make
sense
PGREDS
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Backplane Metaphor

• COTS GIS system (ESRI MapObjects)
• Microsoft Access Relational Database
• Rule-based Resolver
• COTS format rules (RuleQuest)
• Composable (data-driven) GUI
• Bus protocol expandable

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Example of Resolver Capability
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Three Layer Architecture
Entity Level Simulation
Supported Interface Levels (API) To Other Sims
PGREDS
Entity
Entity
Large Unit
Large Unit Simulation
Large Unit
High Level
High Level
Religious
Model Slots
Resolver
Geographic
Political
High Level Aggregate Simulation
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Scenario Overview

• Scenario built around sudden collapse of North
  Korea. Two SASO operations implemented by
  US-lead UN forces. Scenario executed twice under
  two different conditions
• UN forces are well-organized and sensitive to
  political considerations. Pyongyang is
  well-disposed to and cooperative with UN
  involvement.
• -OTB result SASO operations conducted with
  minimum negative impact. Press support is
  generated.
• Compromises made at UN deployment. Pyongyang, at
  best, ambivalent to UN involvement. Divergent
  elite interests.
• -OTB result SASO operations conducted with
  significant negative impact ( large number of
  dead/injured). Press is non-supportive of the
  results.
• The use of PGREDS gives 2 different OTB outcomes
  even though the OTB scenario is identical.

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OTB Support for Scenario

• Choice of
• Constructing PGREDS behavior in OTB with control
  measures to be used by scenario builders.
• Constructing on autonomous behaviors.

• Justifications for building on autonomous
  behaviors
• These behaviors allow for a higher level control
  (via mental states).
• The reuse of psychological modeling concepts
  already in OTB code.
• Prevent the need to map out the PGREDS decision
  tree during scenario design (anticipating
  contingencies and planning reactions).

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OTB PGREDS Support

• Scenario designer must build route movement for
  all entities according the scenario definition
  with autonomous behaviors activated.
• PGREDS factors are evaluated at every decision
  point automatically to aid the decision making
  process in OTB. Proper behaviors will be chosen
  and executed in the scenario.

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Conclusions Future Directions

• Explored how to connect social science models and
  military simulations.
• Worked out details of composing models and
  linking them to simulations at their level of
  detail.
• Expand models.
• Listen to real time data (Internet, Papers, etc.)
  and update simulation behaviors.