Weather in Bethesda and Commodity Tips

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Weather in Bethesda and Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Late night (IST) the API
published its inventory report wherein as
per Bloomberg data, the agency said crude
stocks for week ended 14th February fell by
473,000 barrels while the distillate stocks
dipped lower than expected by 676,000
barrels. The positivism was though carried
forward by the better drop in Cushing stocks
which declined by 1.8 Mln barrels taking the
impact of the start of the TransCanada Corps
oil flow from the storage hub to Texas
region. While markets were more bothered about
the effect of ongoing winter in the US they also
looked for further updates on the inventory front
from the US DoE which would release its separate
report today. As per market estimates, crude
stockpiles are expected to have fallen by over 2
million barrels while a similar drop in is also
anticipated on the distillate front. However,
after looking at the API data, we feel DoE data
might be low on providing any major positive
surprise to the markets. Positivism is likely to
continue on Cushing part for the government
backed report as well. The major reason behind
the rise in crude prices was the near term
weather outlook. As per a news report
from Bloomberg, President of Commodities
Weather in Bethesda, Maryland a
weather consultancy involved in agriculture
and energy sector which provides solutions
to clients based on weather changes yesterday
said Temperatures across the US will plummet
through next week, and the cold will linger
through the start of March. This along with
updated short-term winter forecast from the US
Climate Prediction Centre were critical for the
positive momentum in crude yesterday. Overall we
are maintaining our broad bullish bias into the
commodity though would be circumspect about any
major gains coming into prices today. During
early morning trade in Asia, we saw
Chinese Flash HSBC manufacturing number
also disappointing which is having
moderately negative impact on the
commodity in early session. Cumulatively,
still we hold a positive bias and
recommend buying on declines for small targets
today Global Market Analysis Fed released its
minutes from January 28-29 FOMC meeting and the
points are bit jittery. One of the most important
points that it noted was policy makers backed off
from their year- old commitment to consider
raising interest rates when unemployment
falls below 6.5. The other important point
that was highlighted was that the Central
bank would continue to trim the bond
purchase by 10 Billion until and unless the Fed
sees a highly negative change in the economic
outlook. Eventually the US market posted a
negative close while the US dollar index
gained moderately. By looking at the global
activities, Asian markets have declined sharply
and trading down by more than a percent.
Meanwhile, Chinese PMI number shrunk which also
pulled the markets down. Coming to crude oil,
April future NYMEX contract is trading at 102.51
merely down by 0.31. We believe so much of price
correction is seen now could be because of
lowering Asian stocks while the API inventory
suggest a good amount of drawdown of oil stocks.
Overall, the trend is still bullish while we
would insist to buy only on dips. Tonight we have
the DOE weekly petroleum numbers which might
develop a fresh outlook on oil. We also believe
oil may not be so lucrative contract to trade
today as it is already trading at high
price. Commodity Tips SELL SILVER MCX MAR NEAR
47510-47530 SL 47800 TGT 47000