Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain

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Counting output in ways that matter lessons
from Britains Railwaysor

• Dr Tim Leunig Professor Nick Crafts

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Why have commuters been neglected since 1945?

• Dr Tim Leunig Professor Nick Crafts

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Measuring output

• Passenger journeys
• Passenger miles

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Counting output correctly
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Measuring output

• Passenger journeys
• Passenger miles
• Rather crude, and not quality adjusted

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Aspects of quality

• Are the trains safe?
• Are the trains fast?
• Are the trains frequent?
• Are the trains on time?
• Can I get a seat?
• Are the sandwiches any good?

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Fast v frequent

• People want to get from origin to destination,
  quickly
• Quickly means the time from when they want to
  leave until actual arrival
• Train speed and frequency are therefore
  substitutes and need to be considered together

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Methodology (1)

• Computerise the railway timetable
• Find out how speeds and frequency change over
  time
• Take into account that trains at some times of
  day are more important than at others

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Counting output correctly
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Which train to catch?

• Preferred time of travel exogenous
• Take the first train after the time you want to
  travel
• Except do not take a train that will be overtaken
  by a later train mid-journey
• No endogeneity of preferred time of travel as a
  result of train speeds

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Allocating people to trains
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Which journeys to include?

• Representative selection?
• Major journeys?

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Which journeys matter?
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Which journeys to include

• Representative selection?
• Major journeys?
• Journeys of different types

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5 samples

• Short commuter routes (Surbiton)
• Long commuter routes (Cambridge)
• Long distance routes (Leeds)
• Non-London routes
• Airport connections

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Counting output correctly
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Overall result

• Since 1945, long distance trains have become
  faster
• Shorter distance commuter trains got faster until
  the earlier 1970s, and have since slowed down to
  their 1950 levels again

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Commuter line quantity

• 375 million commuter journeys into Central London
  each year, 60m from Waterloo alone

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Passengers per station
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The value of time

• DoT methodology modal-specific wage values for
  in work time, standardised for other time
• Rail work time 42/hour
• Commuting time all modes 5.75
• Commuting rail time would be 8
• Might be higher into SW London?

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Lost value

• Counterfactual commuter trains get faster at the
  same rate as non-commuter trains since 1950
• eg Surbiton-Waterloo 14 mins inc waiting (51mph
  total, 71mph IV on current frequency)
• Value _at_8/hr 440m (npv 6bn)

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So why hasnt it happened?

• Politics?
• Technical difficulties?

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Commuter line politics

• In commuter constituencies, lots of people
  commute salience
• Non-commuting home owners gain as house prices
  reflect service
• Therefore you might expect government to improve
  these lines

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Commuter line politics

• Most London commuter constituencies vote
  Conservative
• And some are politically marginal Croydon,
  North Kent, South Essex

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Commuter election results
Brighton Con Con Con Con Con Lab/C Lab/C Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Lab
Chelmsford Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con
Croydon Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con
Reading Lab Lab Lab/C Lab Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Lab/C
St.Albans Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con
Surbiton Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con LD LD LD
Wimbledon Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con
Woking   Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con
1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 1974.5 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005
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Can commuter routes get faster?

• Improve signalling to run more trains per hour
  (as in 1912)
• Lighter trains accelerate more quickly
• More doors to speed boarding
• Tunnel mainline routes into the centre, (e.g.
  Waterloo Bank Liverpool St) big time
  savings

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Why choose HST instead?

• Glamour? Announcing that Britain will enter the
  High Speed Era with the CTRL or the WCML may get
  better headlines than announcing 5 minutes off
  the time to East Croydon.

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Evening Standard

• The Queen re-ignited the great British love
  affair with the railways last night as she opened
  the revitalised St.Pancras station.
• History was made at the new St.Pancras
  International today when the first Eurostar train
  left for Brussels.

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Will it happen?

• Eddington talked about building what people will
  use
• Crossrail is in London (although does not seem
  designed to maximise outputcost ratio)

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Questions and comments?
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The glamour of high speed trains or why is my
train to work so slow?