5th Doha Conference on Natural Gas

1
U.S. Natural Gas and LNG Markets Status and
Outlook
Guy F. Caruso Energy Information
Administration Guy.Caruso_at_eia.doe.gov
5th Doha Conference on Natural Gas 28 February
2005 Doha, Qatar
2
Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and
Imports, 1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet)
28
Net imports
Consumption
15
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (trillion
cubic feet)
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
3
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,
1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Industrial
Electric Generators
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
Includes lease and plant fuel
Includes pipeline fuel
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
4
Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel
Type, 2001-2025 (gigawatts)
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
5
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025
(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Onshore Unconventional
Nonassociated Onshore Conventional
Non-associated Offshore
Associated/Dissolved
Alaska
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
6
Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas,
1970-2025(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Liquefied Natural Gas
Canada
Mexico
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
7
U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2003
Nigeria
Qatar
Trinidad and Tobago
Other
Australia
Algeria
Source EIA
8
Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals
9
U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
New terminals
Existing terminals
Source 2005 Annual Energy Outlook
10
Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,2010,
2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)
New
(2020)
England
New England
WA/OR
West
Mid
Mountain
North
Atlantic
Central
East
North
(2020)
Central
Middle Atlantic
South
East
CA
Atlantic
West
South
South
AZ/NM
Central
Central
(2016)
South Atlantic
FL
(2007)
Mexico into US
(2010)
Florida
(2007)
(20xx) Start year of first new terminal
East South Central
(2006)
West South Central
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
11
Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-2025
(2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
8.23
(nominal dollars)
1.55
1995
2025
Slow technology 5.18
Reference case 4.79
Rapid technology 4.35
History
Projections
Source Annual Energy Outlook 2005
12
Summary

• More than 8 tcf of new U.S. gas supply will be
  needed by 2025.
• Nearly all of the increase in net U.S. imports
  from through 2025 is expected to come from LNG,
  as Canadian imports peak and decline.
• A substantial boost in supplies from production
  or imports will take time and will require
  additional infrastructure.
• The first new U.S. LNG terminal in more than 20
  years is expected to begin operation on the Gulf
  Coast this year.

13
Annual Energy Outlook 2005, December 9, 2004
Short-term Energy Outlook, monthly
International Energy Outlook 2004, April 14,
2004 Special Reports The Global Liquefied
Natural Gas Market Status and Outlook,
December 2003 Qatar LNG Status and
Development, International Energy Outlook
2004 Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,
Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Guy F. Caruso Energy Information
Administration Guy.Caruso_at_eia.doe.gov
www.eia.doe.gov