How We Estimated The CFS OutofScope Sectors

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How We Estimated The CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors

• Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.
• Senior Research Consultant/Project Manager
• MacroSys Research and Technology
• _at_ BTS-Research and Innovative Technology
  Administration, USDOT
• Talking Freight Seminar
• February 15, 2006

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Sector Coverage
Sectors in CFS Manufacturing Mining Wholesale
trade Selected Retail trade
Total composite national estimates Serve as
benchmark for the FHWA Freight Analysis
Framework II
Sectors not in CFS Imports Publishing Farm based
Construction Logging Se
rvices Fisheries Retail Crude Petroleum
Municipal solid waste Natural gas
Sectors partially in CFS Exports
Petroleum products
Other sectors Household office goods
moves In-transit
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Retail Trade

• CFS attempted to partially cover this sector but
  coverage was not as expected
• New estimates cover retail companies, including
  motor vehicle and parts dealers furniture, home
  goods, electronic and appliance, building
  materials, clothing, etc. stores and general
  merchandise stores.
• Data drawn from the VIUS, Economic Census,
  mileage data from the CFS, and input-output from
  the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Retail Trade (cont.)

• Data sources and method of estimation
• Values Based on sales receipts of retail trade
  industries (from 2002 Economic Census)
• Tons Values Weight-value ratios (from 2002
  CFS)
• Ton-miles Tons Miles per shipment (from 2002
  VIUS)
• Remaining Issues
• Need to provide estimates by mode

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Construction

• CFS excludes shipments originating in the
  construction sector.
• The new joint estimates cover shipments of
  companies engaged in construction of residential
  and commercial buildings, utility systems, road
  and bridge construction, and specialty trade
  contractors.
• Estimates based on the Vehicle Inventory and Use
  Survey (VIUS), the Economic Census, and average
  miles per shipment information by commodity from
  the 1997 CFS.

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Construction (cont.)

• Data sources and method of estimation
• Ton-miles Truck payload weight Truck loaded
  miles (from 2002 VIUS)
• Tons Ton-miles / Miles per shipment (from 2002
  VIUS)
• Values Tons Value-weight ratios (from 2002
  CFS)
• Remaining Issues
• Shipments by truck only (other modes are not
  covered)

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Services

• CFS excludes shipments originating in the service
  sector.
• New estimates covers shipments from service
  sector companies engaged in, for example,
  accommodation and food, rental and leasing,
  repair and maintenance, and scientific and
  technical services.
• Estimates based on the VIUS, the Economic Census,
  and average miles per shipment information by
  commodity from the 1997 CFS.

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Services (cont.)

• Data sources and method of estimation
• Ton-miles Truck payload weight Truck loaded
  miles (from 2002 VIUS)
• Tons Ton-miles / Miles per shipment (from 2002
  VIUS)
• Values Tons Value-weight ratios (from 2002
  CFS)
• Remaining Issues
• Shipments by truck only (other modes are not
  covered)

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Logging Sector

• CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC
  to NAICS in the 2002 CFS
• Logging changed from in-scope manufacturing under
  SIC code to out-of-scope agriculture under NAICS
• The data gap includes logs and other wood in
  rough
• New estimates based on data from the U.S.
  Department of Agriculture's Agricultural
  Statistics, the Rail Waybill Sample, and the
  Waterborne Commerce of United States

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Logging (cont.)

• CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC
  to NAICS in the 2002 CFS
• Data sources and method of estimation
• Tons 1997 tons (from 1997 CFS) growth of logs
  output (2002/1997) (from the Census of
  Agriculture)
• Ton-miles Tons Miles per ton ratio (from 1997
  CFS)
• Values Tons Value-ton ratio (from 1997 CFS)

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Publishing

• CFS does not cover publishing due to the switch
  from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS.
• Publishing changed from in-scope manufacturing
  under SIC code to out-of-scope information under
  NAICS
• Commodities missing include printed products
• New estimates based on data from the Economic
  Census and average miles per shipment information
  from the 1997 CFS.

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Publishing (cont.)

• Data Sources and method of estimation
• Values Sales receipts of NAICS 5111 and 51223
  industries (from 2002 Economic Census)
• Tons Value Value-ton ratio (from 2002 CFS)
• Ton-miles Tons Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

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Imports

• CFS excludes imports because CFS is shipper-based
  and covers domestic business only
• Estimates covers official U.S. merchandise
  imports trade by mode and commodity.
• Value and weight information derived from trade
  data. Ton-miles derived as sum of tonnage
  multiplied by estimated shipment travel distance
  for each mode.

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Imports (cont.)

• Data source and method of estimation
• Values Based on data from Census Bureau
• Tons Based on data from the Transborder
  dataset, Census Bureaus Trade Statistics
• Ton-miles Tons average length of haul (from
  Rail Waybill, BTS, US Army Corps of Engineers,
  2002 CFS, Association of Oil Pipelines)
• Remaining Issues
• Double counting of some imports already covered
  by CFS

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Exports

• While the CFS includes export, it partially
  covers all export shipments
• Our estimates represents the net difference
  between official U.S. merchandise exports and the
  exports measured in the CFS by mode and commodity.

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Exports (cont.)

• Analysis indicates that CFS underestimates export
  shipments, and misclassifies modal distributions
• Data sources and method of estimation
• Values Values.T (from U.S. trade data) 2002
  CFS exports values
• Tons Values.S Weight-value ratios of imports
  (surface modes from official trade data) Tons
  for air water from official trade data 2002
  CFS exports tons
• Ton-miles Tons.T Miles per ton (from CFS
  export data) 2002 CFS exports ton-miles

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Household and Office Goods

• As a shipper survey the CFS does not cover
  these shipments
• Our estimates covers movement of household goods
  and used institutional or commercial furniture
  and equipment.
• Data from the Economic Census and the American
  Moving and Storage Association.

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Household and Office Goods (cont.)

• Principal commodities include electronics,
  furniture mixed freight
• Data sources and method of estimation
• Values Sales receipt of NAICS 48421 (from 2002
  Economic Census)
• Tons Values Value per ton ratio (from
  American Moving and Storage Association)
• Ton-miles Tons Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

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Major Findings

• Released in Freight in America report
• Over 19 billion tons of freight valued at 13
  trillion was carried over 4.4 trillion ton-miles
  in 2002
• Typical day in 2002 - Approx. 53 million tons of
  goods valued at about 36 billion moved nearly 12
  billion ton-miles on the national multimodal
  transportation network

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Major Findings
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Major Findings

• Trucking remains the mode of choice and is
  increasing in market share
• Nearly 1.7 billion tons of merchandise moved in
  and out of the US, accounting for over 9 percent
  of total tonnage

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Comparison with 2002 CFS

• According to the composite estimates, more
  freight moves than reported in the CFS
• By value, 36 percent of the freight moved
  nationally were non-CFS shipments
• About 40 by tonnage
• About 29 by ton-miles

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Comparison with 2002 CFS
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Summary

• A large proportion of the freight shipments of
  the United States is not covered by CFS
• Possible to use surrogate data sources to
  reliably estimate out-of-score sectors
• Further research needed to, for example
• Estimate construction, services, and retail
  shipments by other modes besides trucks

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• Follow-Up Questions?
• Felix Ammah-Tagoe
• 202/366-8926
• felix.ammah-tagoe_at_dot.gov