The Middle East

1
The Middle East

• Syria an example of finagling
• From Dale Tatum, Who Influenced Whom? Lessons
  from the Cold War (Maryland University Press of
  America, 2002), pp.15-37

2
Finagling with the SU

• SU attempted exploit position as Syrias main
  arms supplier 1956
  
• Counterbalance growth Western influence in Middle
  East
  
• Formation Baghdad Pact seen as expansionist and
  threat to sovereignty
  
• Anti-Baghdad coalition SU arms to Syria and
  Egypt

3
Syrian-Israeli War

• After Arab-Israeli War 1973
• SU wanted Syria attend Middle East peace
  conference Geneva
  
• Hafed al-Assad refused comply would only serve
  Israels interest (Golan Heights)
  
• New war of attrition military supplies from SU
  why?
  

4
Lebanese Civil War

• Syria and SU supported different sides
• Syria Christian right wing faction
• SU leftist Palestinian faction
• History of Lebanon

5
History of Lebanon

• Country divided by sectarianism
• Prior WWI part Syria
• Post-WWI French mandate over the Lebanon
• Originally Christian, French expanded borders
• 1943 Lebanon gained independence
• National Pact divided power between Christians
  and Muslims, but favoured Christian community
  
• President of the Republic Maronite Christian
• Prime Minister Sunni Muslim
• President to the National Assembly Shiite Muslim

6
History of Lebanon

• Christian community majority seats Parliament,
  and major cabinet posts
  
• Lebanon developed capitalist economy and ties
  with the West
  
• By 1975 Muslims majority, desired share political
  and economic power
  
• Complicated by Palestinians settled southern
  province when Israel created, launched attacks
  from here
  
• Competition between different factions
  political system collapsed

7
Syrias role

• Assad became patron Palestinian forces
• Attempted peace between Christians and Muslims
• Syrian security threatened partition along
  sectarian lines raised possibility war with
  Israel PLO in south, with support from Iraq,
  would attack Israel and lead to Israeli war with
  Syria
• 1976 Assad wanted negotiated settlement
• SU supported Palestinian state, agreed

8
Bargaining power

• Assad wanted balance, but Muslim forces appeared
  strongest
  
• SU cautious Pravda reported Syrian troops
  helping ease tensions
  
• Victory of Christian community seemed imminent,
  Pravda stated Syria should withdraw troops
  otherwise supply arms halted
  
• SU desire? Palestine to be separate state
• Assad refused use of ports, SU resumed arms supply

9
Isolation of Syria 1978-1982

• SU dominating role Syria failed obtain arms
  from SU, complied with demands
  
• Syria unwilling or unable to restrain PLO
  attacks
  
• Response Israel launched Operation Latani
  (Stone of Wisdom) in southern Lebanon to counter
  PLO attacks
  
• Threat to Syrias position in Lebanon
• Protecting Syria impt. to SU, but protecting
  influence in Lebanon not avoiding entanglement
  in Middle Eastern politics!
  

10
Isolation of Syria

• Syria lacked means to stop Israeli forces in
  Lebanon
  
• 1973 Egypt and Syria powerful against Israel 2
  fronts
  
• 1978 Egypt constrained by Camp David Accords
• Syria appealed to superpowers and UN to force
  Israeli withdrawal
  
• Assad allowed enemy, Iraq, to ship arms across
  Syria, opened border to Arabs wanting to fight in
  Lebanon against Israel

11
Realist Paradigm

• Syria forced to back down
• Signed Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with
  SU 1980
  
• 1981 Syrian helicopters shot down over Syrian
  airspace by Israeli pilots
  
• Response surface-to-air missiles moved into
  Lebanon without SU support
  
• Resolved by American negotiator
• When Israel invaded Lebanon 1982, Syria unable
  acquire arms from SU

12
Re-emergence of Syria

• 1983 impt. changes
• Ability Assad mobilise Lebanese factions
• Change SU leadership
• Assad formed coalition within Lebanon to mount
  armed resistance against Israel and Lebanese
  govt.
  
• Yuri Andropov more responsive to Assads
  requests Reagan Plan concerning, verge
  acceptance Hussein and Arafat

13
American influence

• American influence in region seen as potentially
  disastrous
  
• Israel informed 52,000 Soviet troops could be
  airlifted to Syria if attacked
  
• SAM-5 missiles sent to Syria
• 1985 Assad expelled 2000 Soviet advisors, gained
  control weapons
  
• SU relationship with Assad strategic port
  access to Mediterranean Sea
  
• Syria needed arms reciprocal relationship

14
Goals

• Not shared
• SU global view US activities threat to peace
  in the region
  
• Syria narrower and regional view Israel main
  threat to peace. Middle Eastern policy to
  maintain intricate links with various factions as
  guard against Israeli encroachment

15
Arab League Plan and Gorbachevs Plan

• Similarities
• Called for Israeli withdrawal Arab occupied
  territory
  
• Palestinian self-determination
• Palestinian state
• Return East Jerusalem to Arabs
• Freedom worship all religions
• End state of war between Israel and Arabs
• International peace conference hosted by P5

16
Aims

• Syria ambiguous about creation Palestinian
  homeland - key motive wanted move Palestinians
  from Lebanon
  
• SU wanted Palestinian state to avoid pro-West
  Jordanian link
  
• Tatum During periods of high international
  tension, the bargaining position of a weak
  country is often enhanced because it is in a
  position to deny the leaders of a more powerful
  country something they want. p.29

17
Search for security

• After SU collapse, Syrias bargaining power
  reduced
  
• New relationship with China, but different they
  not require strategic ports, just cash
  
• 1988 broadened ties with Jordan
• 1989 improved relations with Egypt, allowed
  readmittance to membership of Pan-Arab
  Organisation for Organisation and Development