CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA:

1
Peter Gilruth, Division of Early Warning and
Assessment
2
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA

• UNEPs Findings with Respect to the Environment
  Dimension,Projected Impactsand Adaptation
  Options
• Scenarios, Impacts, Adaptation

3
Climate Change Indicator

• The Snows of Kilimanjaro E. Hemingway
• Finding A drop in atmospheric moisture, and
  recent rising air temperatures most likely
  contribute to the observed glacier retreat on Mt.
  Kilimanjaro

4
Current vulnerability to CC

• Even without CC, several countries particularly
  in northern Africa, will exceed the limits of
  their economically useable, land-based water
  resources before 2025.
• African farmers and pastoralists in drylands, are
  mostly dependent on rainfall and must contend
  with highly variable climate patterns.

5

• SCENARIOS

6
CC scenarios

• Annual mean surface air temperature is expected
  to increase between 3 and 4C by 2100 compared
  with the 1980-1999 period with smaller warming in
  equatorial and coastal areas (IPCC-2007 WG-1)
• Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm (by
  2150) or 750 ppm (by 2250) could delay the
  expected greenhouse gas induced warming
  respectively by 100 years and 40 years.

7
CC scenarios

• The number of extremely dry and wet years will
  increase during the next century (2081-2099) for
  the Sahel region.

8

• IMPACTS

9
Impacts - Water Stress

• Population at risk of increased water stress is
  projected between 75-250 million and 350-600
  million people by the 2020s and 2050s,
  respectively (red, green and red lines relate to
  different population projections) Arnell, 2004

10
Impacts Forest Degradation

• Dependency on fuelwood as source of energy
  about 70 of total energy consumption
• Fire incidents represent a serious threat to
  tropical forest in Africa

11
Future impacts and vulnerabilities

• Studies based on three scenarios indicate that
  crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as
  90 by 2100, with small-scale farms most affected
  (Benhin, 2006)
• A warming of 2.5C will likely increase small
  farm livestock income by 26 (US1.4 billion)
• By 2020, for example, indications are that the
  ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro could disappear
  (Agrawala, 2005).

12
Future impacts and vulnerabilities

• Coral bleaching following the 1997-1998 extreme
  El Niño is an indication of the potential impact
  of climate-change induced ocean warming on coral
  reefs (Lough, 2000)
• Disappearance of low-lying corals and losses in
  biodiversity could driven by ocean acidification
  (UNEP 2008).

13

• ADAPTATION

14
Adaptation practices
15
Adaptation practices
16
Adaptation practices
17

• ADAPTATION
• REQUIRES KNOWLEDGE
• OF RISKS

18
Research gaps and priorities

• Needs include
• Develop regional and sub-regional climate models
  at a scale meaningful to decision makers include
  stakeholders in framing issues requiring more
  investigation
• Scientific research capacity in Africa must be
  strengthened to meet the challenges of CC, and in
  particular to identify which productive sectors
  are most at risk.

19
Research gaps and priorities

• Needs include
• Improve lag times in delivering technology and
  adaptive practices from the research community to
  the affected sector. Not only does the
  technology transfer take several years, but
  (agricultural) extension services are in decline
  in several countries in Africa.

20
UNEP Collaboration

• Potential for (reconfigured) UNEP contributions
  to drought adaptation network
• Capacity building, in partnership with UNDP, on
  downscaling messages from IPCC from the global
  scale to the local scale.
• Capacity building, on environmental assessments
  related to climate change (impacts and adaptation
  within Poverty Environment initiative, inter
  alia)

21
Thank You