Central America: Climate, Climate Variability, Climate Change

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Central America Climate, Climate Variability,
Climate Change
Patricia Ramírez Obando (Presentado por Lucio
Pedroni)
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Weather and climate
Weather Describes the short-term (i.e., hourly
and daily) state of the atmosphere
Climate The long-term average weather of a
region including typical weather
patterns. Climate is defined as the statistics of
weather.
Climate is what we expect
Weather is what we get
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Climate The long-term average weather of a
region including typical weather
patterns. Climate is defined as the statistics
of weather. Climate develops in the Climate
System
CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
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Climate variability is defined as a fluctuation
in climate, which could last for a specified
period of time, usually of the order of seasons
to years to decades.
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Climate change Long-term trends in the average
climate. In IPCC usage, climate change refers to
any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human
activity.  In UNFCCC usage, climate change
refers to a change in climate that is
attributable directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters atmospheric composition.
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• Central America is located in a narrow bridge of
  land between two large continental masses (North
  and South America)
• Climate is influenced, among others elements, by
  Intra-Americas  

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Complex topography and Strong topography-wind
flow interaction
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation, promedios
anuales 1900-1998
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    Climate prediction a complex problem in
the region due to diverse climate features
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CHANGES IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 2010 2100
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CHANGES IN RAINFALL NICARAGUA
Rainfall (mm)-average 1971-90 (INETER 2000)
Reductions in precipitation expected along the
Pacific region of Nicaragua under
IS-92-a 2010 -8.4 2030..
-14.5 2050.. -21.0 2070..
-27.3 2100.. -36.6
Rainfall (mm) year 2100 HADCM2 model and IS92-a
Scenario (MARENA 2000)
INETER Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios
Territoriales MARENA Ministerio del Ambiente y
Recursos Naturales
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica

W
E
2.0 oC
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica

0.5 oC
Grupo Cambio Global
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica

1.5 oC
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica
W
E

0.7 oC
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Jorge A. Amador (1, 2) Gabriela Mora (1) ,Erick
Rivera (1) (1) Center for Geophysical Research
(CIGEFI), (2) Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic
and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of
Physics), University of Costa Rica

1.0 oC
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Valores instrumentales
Temperatura media global (1971-2000)
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Probabilidad de Impactos f (Cambio de la
Temperatura)
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Efecto de un aumento de 2 oC en Turrialba, CR
(Media 21.9 oC, desviación estándar 1.15 oC)
Frecuencia
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Muchas gracias!