Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum

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Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum

• Presentation by George C. Eads
• Vice President, CRA International
• to the Modeling the Oil Transition Workshop
• Washington, DC, April 20-21

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Background

• Presentation today based on work of WBCSDs
  Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) also work by
  CRA for BP
• Projections that you will see were generated
  using spreadsheet model developed by IEA and
  CRA for the SMP
• Principal developer Lew Fulton at IEA
• Model is an accounting model
• Is benchmarked to reference case in IEAs World
  Energy Outlook 2004 (WEO2004)
• Projections in WEO2004 extend through 2030
  IEA/SMP model extrapolates through 2050
• Projections assume continuation of current
  trends (including policies in place as of
  2002/3)
• Model and documentation available for downloading
  at www.sustainablemobility.org

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Transport is overwhelmingly dependent on
oilTransport is also the largest user of oil
Source IEA WEO2004 Note Shares do not add to
100 due to exclusion of non-energy uses of oil
Source IEA/SMP Spreadsheet model calculations
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Light-duty vehicles, freight trucks, and air
transport (in that order) account for nearly all
transport fuel demand
Source IEA/SMP Spreadsheet model calculations
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Growth in transport energy use is largely driven
by growth in transport demandDecomposition of
projected average annual change in transport
energy use (2000-2050)
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Projected personal transport activity by region
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Projected personal transport demand growth by
modeOECD and non-OECD countries
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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Projected goods transport activity by region
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Projected goods transport demand growth by
modeOECD and non-OECD countries
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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What drives transport demand?

• Level and rate of growth of real per capita
  income
• Demographic factors
• Urban form
• Transport costs

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1. Level and growth in real GDP per capitaActual
2000 and projected for 2025 and 2050, US (000),
ppp basis
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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1. Level and growth in real GDP per capitaActual
2000 and projected for 2025 and 2050, US (000),
ppp basis
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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1. Level and growth in real GDP per capitaActual
2000 and projected for 2025 and 2050, US (000),
ppp basis
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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1. Level and growth in real GDP per capitaActual
2000 and projected for 2025 and 2050, US (000),
ppp basis
Source IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations
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2. Demographic factorsProjected total population
and population growth rates
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2. Demographic factorsProjected total population
and population growth rates
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2. Demographic factorsUrbanization
Major trend in developed and, increasingly, in
developing countries urbanization combined with
suburbanization
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2. Demographic factorsUrbanization
Major trend in developed and, increasingly, in
developing countries urbanization combined with
suburbanization
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3. Urban formBoth impacts and is impacted by
transport demand

• Throughout history, the size of cities has been
  constrained by the ability of their transport
  systems to
• Supply them with food and raw materials
• Enable their residents to congregate in numbers
  sufficient to transform raw materials into
  finished goods efficiently and/or to conduct
  other business requiring face-to-face interaction
• Transport their finished goods to distant markets
• The development of inexpensive waterborne
  transport eased the first and the third of these
  constraints, but until the mid- to late-1800s,
  cities were still severely limited in their
  ability to move people from their homes to work
  and back on a daily basis

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3. Urban formUntil the mid- to late-1800s, the
population and area of cities such as London was
constrained by the distance people could walk
from home to work
Beginning in the last half of the 19th century,
high-speed public transport enabled people to
live much greater distances from their work as
a result, residential densities fell dramatically
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3. Urban formBut most daily or short
distance personal travel isnt commuting
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82
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The availability of high speed public transport
didnt change the need for peoples activities
other than commuting to be located within a
relatively short distance of where they lived
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3. Urban formNon-commuting trips

• Widespread access to autos gave people a greater
  choice about where they could shop, be
  entertained, etc.

Source Jane Gould, Thomas F. Golob, and Patrick
Barwise, Why Do People Drive to Shop?
Institute for Transportation Studies, University
of California, Irvine, January 1998,
UCI-ITS-AS-WP-98-1
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3. Urban formCharacteristics of personal
transport use in large monocentric cities in
developed world

• Relatively high use of public transport to travel
  to the city center regardless of where one lives
• Car ownership and use rates low among residents
  of city center
• Car ownership rates much higher outside the city
  center, but cars not used for commuting unless
  work outside city center
• Low use of public transport to travel point to
  point within the outer rings of each city
• Relatively lower use of public transport for
  non-commuting personal transport activities
  everywhere

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3. Urban formTravel to work data for London
(2003)
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3. Urban formTravel to work data for London
(2003)
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3. Urban formTravel to work data for London
(2003)
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3. Urban formTravel to work data for London
(2003)
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3. Urban formDaily travel for Paris region
trips to, from, or within Central Paris
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3. Urban formDaily travel for Paris region
trips to, from, or within Central Paris
13.2 of daily trips
5.9 of daily trips
14.3 of daily trips
Share of total trips 33.4 Public transport
share 62.8
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3. Urban formDaily travel trips other than to,
from, or within Central Paris
8.8 of daily trips
22.8 of daily trips
Share of total daily trips 66.6 Public
transport share 16.5
35.0 of daily trips
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3. Urban formHow US personal transportation
demand is influenced by urban form (I)

• Ewing, Pendall, and Chen develop a four component
  sprawl index for 83 U.S cities
• Residential density
• Neighborhood mix of homes, jobs and services
• Strength of activity centers and downtowns
• Accessibility of the street network

(11 difference)
(22 difference)
Low index value indicates greater sprawl index
scaled so 25 units is equal to one standard
deviation index range is from 14.22 to 177.78
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3. Urban formHow US personal transport demand is
influenced by urban form (II)
Bento, Cropper, Mobarak and Vinhad study of 114
urban areas
(25 difference)
Typical individual person having average
characteristics of respondents to 1990 US NPTS
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3. Urban formRelationship between urban form and
US personal transport demand (II)
Typical individual person having average
characteristics of respondents to 1990 US NPTS
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3. Urban formRelationship between urban form and
US personal transport demand (II)
(19 difference)
Typical individual person having average
characteristics of respondents to 1990 US NPTS
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3. Urban formCities in less developed regions
generally have much higher population densities
than do cities in the more developed regions
Shanghai 286 people/hectare
Mumbai 389 people/hectare
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3. Urban formPopulation density map for Shanghai
metropolitan region 2000 population 13 million
(UN est.)
Source Edward Leman, China Issues Note 4
Metropolitan Regions New Challenges for an
Urbanizing China, Paper presented to World
Bank/IPEA Urban Research Symposium 2005,
Brasilia, Brazil, p. 34.
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3. Urban formWhy is Central Shanghai so dense?

• Until 1990, virtually all personal transport had
  to be by foot or bicycle
• No suburban rail or subway system public
  transport limited to buses

Mode split by number of trips (1995)
Mode split by passenger-kilometers traveled (2000)
Source Zhou and Sperling, Transportation in
Developing Countries Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
for Shanghai, China, Pew Center on Global
Climate Change, 2001, p. 6.
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3. Urban formMumbai (Bombay) 2000 population
of 16 million (UN est.)

• Mumbai is built along its suburban railway lines
• Carries six million passengers per day
• Mumbai bus services carry 4.5 million passengers
  per day
• Sixty percent make transfer to rail
• Bus and rail together account for 88 of regions
  motorized personal trips.

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4. Transport costsComposition of household
transport expenditures
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4. Transport costsComposition of household
transport expenditures
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4. Transport costsComposition of household
transport expenditures
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4. Transport costsComposition of household
transport expenditures
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4. Transport costsTax as percentage of the net
price of car in EU counties April 2001
Engine displacement 2.0 L.
Source Study on Vehicle Taxation in the Member
States of the European Union, Final Report,
January 2002, p. 45.
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4. Transport costsVehicle Ownership per capita
and GDP per capita EU and Accession Countries,
1998
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4. Transport costsSingapores position relative
to EU member states and Accession Countries
Singapore (approx.)
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Comparison of personal transport demand
characteristics London and Singapore
Data for Central plus Inner London
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Comparison of personal transport demand
characteristics London and Singapore
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Comparison of personal transport demand
characteristics London and Singapore
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Comparison of personal transport demand
characteristics London and Singapore
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Comparison of personal transport demand
characteristics London and Singapore
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Summary

• Have provided a very rapid and incomplete
  overview of projected demand trends and factors
  driving them
• Main messages
• Transport demand is a principal driver of oil
  demand
• Transport almost totally dependent on oil for
  fuel
• Transport demand driven by income, demographics,
  urban form, and cost of use
• In interest of time, have omitted discussion of
  several extremely important demand-related issues
• Goods transport (officially responsible for 36
  of transport energy demand, but actually somewhat
  more)
• Long-distance transport (for US, accounts for
  0.6 of trips but about 30 of passenger-kilometer
  s)
• Thank you for your attention

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Backup slides
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Personal transport demand projections do not
assume private motorized vehicle ownership rates
typical of MDR countries
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3. Urban formModal use for personal travel in
central Paris and the first ring
Source Renault data