David Kirby

1
David Kirby

• DEBATE WITH ARTHUR ALLEN
• U.C.S.D.
• JANUARY 13, 2007

2
What is AUTISM?

• AUTISM SPECTRUM DISORDERS (ASD)
• DSM-IV Classic or Full Spectrum
• PDD-NOS Milder or Higher Functioning
• ASPERGERS Savant or High Functioning
• MORE THAN ONE CAUSE / NAME?
• Autisms?
• Autism Type I, II, III?
• Autism (genetic) vs. Acquired Neuroimmune
  Disorder (environmental)?

3
KNOW YOUR MERCURY (Hg)

• TYPE SOURCE EXPOSURE
• Elemental Hg Thermometers Vapor
• Amalgams
• Lights/batteries
• Inorganic Hg Coal power plants Air pollutants
• (hydrophylic) Volcanoes
• Wildfires, etc.
• Organic Methyl Hg Fish Ingestion
• Organic Ethyl Hg Thimerosal Injected
  vaccines/Rho-GAM
  
• Fish(?) OTC topical meds

4
7 MAIN ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE THIMEROSAL
HYPOTHESIS

• Autism is genetic, there is no epidemic.
• Mercury level in vaccines was very low, like a
  tuna sandwich.
  
• Autism is not the same thing as mercury
  poisoning.
  
• CDC study of federal data shows no damage from
  mercury in vaccines.
  
• IOM REPORT Thimerosal was not linked to autism
  in five large population studies from the US,
  Denmark, Sweden and UK
  
• Ethyl mercury is less toxic than methyl
  mercury.
  
• Thimerosal was removed from vaccines in 1999 and
  there has been no decline in autism cases in
  California and elsewhere.

5
Argument 1

• Autism is genetic.
• There is no epidemic.

6
AUTISM BY THE NUMBERS US EUROPE

• USA - 1980s 1-2 per 10,000 children
• Late 1990s 1 in 500 (20 per 10,000)
• 2000 1 in 250 (40 per 10,000)
• 2004 1 in 166 (60 per 10,000)
• DSM IV (40 per 10,000) OTHER ASD (20 per
  10,000)
  
• -------------
• UK 2004 1 in 166 (60 per 10,000) DSM IV
  (20 per 10,000) OTHER ASD (40 per 10,000)
  
• Denmark 2004 1 in 1,300 (8 per 10,000)

7
Mercury in US childhood vaccines tripled (from
75mcg to 237.5mcg) between 1988-1992
8
Autism cases spiked at same time

• Effect is greatest for cohorts born between 1987
  and 1992.
  
• Clear differences the prevalence increases with
  younger birth cohorts.
  
• No concomitant decreases in categories of mental
  retardation or
  
• speech/language impairment were seen.
• Curves for children with ADHD also showed strong
  cohort differences.
  
• Cohort curves suggest that autism prevalence has
  been increasing with
  
• time.
• The narrowing of cohort curves in recent years
  may mark a slowing in
  
• the autism prevalence increase.

9
Autism Soars, disabilities steady1993-2003 US
I.D.E.A.
10
BUT US Dept. Of Education Regs Were Changed in
1992 to Expand Autism Criteria

• Before change Many states only recognized and
  counted DSM IV, classic autism.
  
• After change Many states added PDD-NOS,
  Aspergers.
  
• Reported rates of autism in Illinois schools
  went from 5 cases in 1992 to 1,101 in 1996 a
  jump of 21,920!
  
• In same period, US numbers rose 178.6
• BUT - California never expanded inclusion criteria

11
TOTAL Hg BURDEN AND AUTISM RATES IN CALIFORNIA
1985-98
SOURCE Mark Blaxill, SAFEMINDS, 2001
12
The Hidden Horde?

• 1-in-104 American boys have some form of ASD. If
  it is genetic, then the same should be true for
  American men who are 20, 30, 40, etc.
  
• Where are they? Did they outgrow their autism?
• Why are American schools struggling with ASD
  students in the last 10 years, and not before?

13
Number of California Children with Full-Spectrum
Autism in DDS, Avg. Per Age Group, Oct. 2006

• 2,132
• 2,063
• 1,539
• 983
• 505
• 3-5 6-9 10-13 14-17 18-21

SOURCE California DDS
14
SF ASD kids more likely born in polluted areas

• 284 ASD children 657 controls, born in 1994 in
  Bay Area.
  
• Assigned exposure level by birth tract for 19
  chemicals.
  
• Risks for autism were elevated by 50 in tracts
  with the highest chlorinated solvents and heavy
  metals.
  
• Highest risk compounds were mercury, cadmium,
  nickel, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride.
  
• Risk from heavy metals was almost twice as high
  as solvents.
  
• Our results suggest a potential association
  between autism and estimated metal
  concentrations, and possibly solvents, in ambient
  air around the birth residence.
• ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES Vol. 114 No.
  9, September, 2006
  

15
TEXAS HIGHER RISK OF AUTISM NEAR COAL-FIRED
PLANTS

• Study looked at Texas county levels of emissions,
  compared to ASD rates and special ed in 1,200
  school districts.
  
• Autism increased as mercury emissions rose. For
  every thousand pounds of Hg, there was a 61
  percent increase in autism rates.
  
• One county with low mercury emissions but
  significant autism rates was found to harbor one
  of the nations largest mercury mines.
  
• Author A potentially important connection
  between environmental exposure to mercury and the
  development of autism.
  
• HEALTH PLACE 12 (2006) 203-209

16
Argument 2
Mercury levels in vaccines was
very low like a tuna sandwich
17
THE "THIMEROSAL GENERATIONMaximum Exposure in
1st year of life - US Schedule - 1992-200?

• AGE SHOTS HG CONTENT
• BIRTH Hep B 12.5mcg
• 8lb infant (3.6kg) EPA Hg limit 0.36mcg 35
  times over
  
• 4lb infant (1.8kg) EPA Hg limit 0.18mcg 70
  times over
  
• 2 MONTHS Hep B 12.5mcg
• HIb 25.0mcg
• DTaP 25.0mcg
• (subtotal for visit)
• 62.5mcg
• Avg. weight 10lbs/4.5kg EPA limit 0.45mcg
  138 times over
  
• EPA LIMIT 0.1mcg per kg per day
• ADULT MALE 138 times over EPA limit 1,300mcg
  or 1.3 milligrams
  

18
Continued exposures in 1st year of life
AGE SHOTS HG CONTENT 4 MONTHS HIb 25.0mcg
DTaP 25.0 mcg (subtotal for visit) 50.
0 mcg Avg. weight 14lbs/6.5kg EPA limit 0.65mc
g 72 times over 6 MONTHS HiB 25.0mcg DT
aP 25.0mcg (subtotal for visit) 50.0mcg
Avg. weight 16lbs/7.3kg EPA limit 0.73mcg
68 times over 12 MONTHS HiB 25.0mcg DT
aP 25.0mcg (subtotal for visit) 50.0mcg
Avg. weight 20lbs/9kg EPA Hg limit 0.9mcg 5
5 times over
19
Typical Tuna Sandwich

• 20 micrograms, methyl-mercury, ingested,
  contains selenium
  

20
TYPICAL FLU SHOT
25 micrograms ethyl-mercury, injected,
contains aluminum, etc. 110 lb woman 5 times
over EPA daily mercury limit 1.1 lb fetus 50 t
imes over EPA daily limit
21

22
Argument 3

• Autism is not the same as mercury poisoning.

23
ACRODYNIA (PINK DISEASE)Cause Inorganic Hg used
in teething powders

• Afflicted tens of thousands of children in
  1930-1950s.
  
• Symptoms weepy rash peeling skin -AND-
  withdrawal, poor eye contact, poor coordination
  and muscle control, lethargy, repetitive
  behaviors, rocking, spastic movements, emotional
  outbursts, self-injury, sensitivity to light,
  visual impairments, drooling, insomnia, general
  ill health.
• 1-in-500 exposed children developed the disease.
• Years passed before mercury poisoning was
  gradually accepted as the cause, despite stiff
  resistance by industry.
  
• By 1954, most mercury was eliminated from
  teething powders. Cases fell sharply and then
  disappeared entirely.
  
• Today, Pink disease is virtually unheard of.

24
Acrodynia is not Autism

• And neither is Minimata Disease
• Nor Mad Hatters Disease (The Danbury Shakes)
• Nor Iraqi Grain Disease
• There is no SINGLE type of Hg poisoning
• Symptoms depend on age, weight, sex, type of
  mercury, amount of mercury, route of exposure,
  genetic sensitivity, etc.

25
Argument 4

• A CDC study of federal data
• showed no damage from
• mercury in vaccines.

26
VSD - Generation ZeroNov-Dec 1999

• Very high relative risks for outcomes.
• Autism Relative Risk 7.6
• UNPUBLISHED STUDY OBTAINED THROUGH FOIA

27
VSD Generation Zero
28
IT JUST WONT GO AWAY
29
VSD Generation 1 Autism(Verstraeten 2/2000)
30
VSD Generation 2 Autism(Simpsonwood ACIP
6/2000)
31
VSD Generation 3 Autism(IOM Presentation
7/2001)
32
Generation 4 Autism(Pediatrics Article, 11/2003)

• Vol. 112 No. 5 November 2003,
• pp. 1039-1048

In no analyses were significant
increased risks found for autism
or attention-deficit disorder.
33
Autism Risks Across 5 Generations
GEN 0 GEN 1 GEN 2 GEN 3 GEN 4
7.62
2.48 1.69 1.52
0.00
34
Argument 5

• IOM REPORT Thimerosal was not linked to autism
  in five large population studies from the US,
  Denmark, Sweden and UK
  

35
THIMEROSAL EXPOSURE AUTISM RATES IN SWEDEN
1980-1996
SOURCE Stehr-Green, et al, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, 25, no. 2 (August 2003)
101-6

36
THIMEROSAL EXPOSURE AUTISM RATES IN DENMARK
1981-2000
SOURCE Stehr-Green, et al, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, 25, no. 2 (August 2003)
101-6
37
IOM Report Deference toepidemiology over biology

• Epidemiology not acceptable to disprove
  causation Federal Court System.
  
• Epidemiological studies were questioned by lead
  investigators themselves
  
• Danish authors exponential expansion of patients
  (inpatient-outpatient) may have spuriously
  increased the apparent number of autism cases.
  
• Verstraeten We found no evidence against an
  association, as a negative study would. On the
  contrary, additional study is recommended, which
  is the conclusion to which a neutral study must
  come.
• IOM final report Cannot rule out, based on the
  epidemiology, possibility that vaccines
  contribute to autism in some small subset.
  

38
NIH PANEL QUESTIONS CDC METHODS AND DATA - 12/06

• Congress requested NIEHS to convene a panel about
  whether the VSD could be used to compare autism
  rates before and after Hg was phased out.
  
• In December, panel "identified several serious
  problems" with the database.
  
• Several "weaknesses" and "limitations" associated
  with the database would render a comparative
  analysis "uninformative and potentially
  misleading.
• Panel was concerned about how autism diagnoses
  were made and recorded by HMO's -- asked if they
  had adequate services for autism families, who
  might seek care elsewhere.
• These and other problems likely led to an
  "under-ascertainment" of cases. (State rates were
  3-4 per 1,000, but VSD reported a rate of 1.1 per
  1,000) .

39
NIH PANEL QUESTIONS CDC METHODS AND DATA

• Panel cited many other problems with the study
  design, particularly that "a large proportion,
  around 25, of births were excluded from the
  analysis."
• These same children "may represent a susceptible
  population whose removal from the analysis might
  unintentionally reduce the ability to detect an
  effect of thimerosal."
• Other "serious problems" included no
  consideration of Rho-GAM or "other vaccinations
  given during pregnancy, and no accounting for
  "the cumulative exposure to organic mercurials
  through diet or other environmental sources.
• These problems "reduce the usefulness" of the VSD
  to prove or disprove a link between thimerosal
  and autism, though suggestions were given to
  address the problem.

40
Quotes on the NIH report from UPI - Age of
Autism, Dan Olmsted Dec. 11, 2006

• The results from this study suggest there is not
  a 'cause and effect' relationship
  
• between thimerosal and autism or ADD.
• --CDC Website
• The (VSD study) wasn't the last word things
  need to be looked at again,
  
• perhaps with different methodology,"
• --NIH Panel Chair Irva Hertz-
  Picciotto, Professor of Public Health,
  UC-Davis School of Medicine.
  
• "Some studies are stronger than others. The
  Verstraeten study was an
  
• improvement on other studies, including the two
  in Denmark, both of which had
  
• serious weaknesses in their designs.
• --Dr. Hertz-Picciotto
• "We actually just got the (NIH) report and
  haven't had a chance to assess it."
  
• --CDC spokesman Glen Nowak

41
Young Cohort Reduces Signal

• Over one quarter of the children were under the
  age of ascertainment for autism - 44 months -
  causing the signal to disappear. Mark Blaxill
  
• There is certainly an under-ascertainment of
  cases. Some children are just not old enough to
  be diagnosed. Crude incidence rates are much
  lower because the cohort is still
• very young. Thomas Verstraeten
• A CDC official accepted the critics charge that
  it contained many children too young to be
  diagnosed as autistic. This is true, said
  scientist Frank DeStefano, Neil Munro, National
  Journal

42
(No Transcript)
43
SOURCE VSD Analysis, February 2000 Obtained
through FOIA
44

• Biological Studies that Support
• the Mercury Hypothesis

45
MEET THE MERCURY CAPTURERS

• Thiol A class of SULFUR-BASED proteins that
  bind with heavy metals and eliminate them from
  the system.
  
• Thiols include Glutathione, cysteine and
  metallothioneine.
  
• Synonym for thiol mercaptan from the Latin
  mercurium captans or literally, mercury
  capturer.

46

• Dr. Jill James and team
• Discovered that ASD kids have low or depleted
  levels of thiols, including glutathione a
  powerful antioxidant.
  
• Low thiols levels are thought to be based on
  genes - and possible mercury exposure (See R.
  Deth).
  
• Methionine metabolites (methionine, cysteine,
  glutathione) in 20 children with autism compared
  vs. controls revealed severely abnormal
  profiles.
• Targeted nutritional intervention for three weeks
  with Folinic acid, and Betaine (1000 mg. BID)
  resulted in significant improvement in
  methylation capacity in children with autism.
• Addition of methyl B-12 to cocktail brought all
  autistic children within normal levels of
  methionine, cysteine and glutathione

47
Chelation results from autistic child
48
Holmes, Haley and Blaxill Baby Haircut Study 2003
49
TOXICOLOGY AND APPLIED PHARMACOLOGY - 15.3
(March, 2006)

• Urine samples from 100s of French children
  yielded evidence for a link between autism and
  heavy metals.
  
• Samples from ASD children had high levels of
  porphyrins used to produce of haem, the
  oxygen-carrying component in haemoglobin.
  
• Heavy metals block haem, causing porphyrins to
  accumulate in urine.
  
• Coproporphyrin was 2.6 times higher in autism
  cases than controls.
  
• One author said it was Highly likely heavy
  metals are responsible for childhood autism in a
  majority of cases.
  

50
Asperger coprophyrin profiles matched control
cases, not autism
TOXICOLOGY AND APPLIED PHARMACOLOGY - 15.3
(March, 2006)

51
Researchers restored porphyrin concentrations to
normal in 12 children through chelation.
52

• THIMEROSAL CAN CAUSE IMMUNE IMBALANCES
• Thimerosal and Immune Cells
  M.I.N.D. Institute March 26/06
  
• Miniscule amounts (nanomolars) of
  thimerosal can
  
• 1) Kill immune (dendritic) cells
• 2) Cause cytokine imbalances
• 3) Induce inflammation.

53
Autism and Immune Dysfunction

• Presentation of MIND Institute
• 2005 International Meeting for Autism Research
• AUTISM IS ASSOCIATED WITH
• IMMUNE IMBALANCES
• Compared to typical children, those with ASD
  were
  
• found to have
• Increased autoimmunity
• Extremely elevated levels of certain immune cells
  and cytokines
  
• Imbalances in the TH1/TH2 immune response

54
Argument 6

• Ethyl mercury is less toxic than methyl
  mercury.
  

55

• The scientific evidence that PMA
• thimerosal causes reproductive
• toxicity is clear and voluminous.
• Evidence for its reproductive toxicity includes
  severe mental retardation or malformations in
  human offspring who were poisoned when their
  mothers were exposed to ethyl mercury or
  thimerosal while pregnant.
• Studies in animals demonstrate developmental
  toxicity after exposure to thimerosal.
  
• Data showing interconversion to other forms of
  mercury that also clearly cause reproductive
  toxicity.
  

56

• Thomas Bubacher and team at Univ. of Washington
  Primate Center compared ethylmercury from
  thimerosal and methylmercury from fish.
  
• Methyl Hg stayed in blood longer and crossed
  blood-brain barrier more.
  
• Govt press release and media reported
  Ethylmercury is less hazardous.
  
• BUT - Ethyl in brain converts to inorganic
  mercury much faster than methyl.
  
• 2-4 times as much inorganic Hg found in brains of
  ethyl vs methyl group.
  
• Over half the methyl-exposed brains had no
  detectable inorganic Hg.
  
• Half-life in brain of organic Hg 30 days
  Half-life of inorganic Hg 20 years
  

57
Changes in the number of astrocytes and
microglia in the thalamus of the monkey Macaca
Fascicularis following long-term subclinical
methylmercury exposure.
Neurotoxicology. 199617127-138.

• Burbacher et al gave methyl mercury (MeHg)
  orally to primates and found that MeHg
  concentrations plateaued at around 12 months
  exposure, whereas inorganic levels, presumably
  derived from demethylation of MeHg, continued to
  increase throughout all exposure durations.
• Both the astrocytes and microglia contain
  substantially elevated inorganic Hg deposits
  relative to all other cell types.
  
• Inorganic mercury in the brains, accumulating
  after long-term exposure, may be a proximate
  toxic form of mercury responsible for the changes
  within the astrocyte and microglial populations.
  
• (Changes in these cells were not noted for six
  months or more in some cases.)
  

58
HARVARD JOHNS HOPKINS STUDIES ON AUTISTIC BRAINS

• HARVARD
• Neuro-inflammation found in autistic brain
  tissue from childhood through adulthood. Study
  suggests that chronic disease or an external
  environmental source (ie, heavy metals) may be
  cause.
• JOHNS HOPKINS
• Inflammation found in autistic brains -
  apparently associated with activation of brains
  immune system.
  
• Compared with controls, autistic tissue showed
  ongoing inflammation in various sections of
  brain.
  
• Inflammation was produced by activation of brain
  cells known as microglia and astroglia.

59
Argument 7

• Thimerosal was removed from vaccines in 1999
  and there has been no decline in autism cases in
  California and elsewhere.
  

60
Net gain in cases drops between 2002-2005
61
Rate of increase fell sharply
62
3-5 year olds - quarterly numbers

• QUARTER Total children Net gain Change
  
  
• 3-5 years old (avg.143) net gain
• 1Q 2003 4228 189 81
• 2Q 2003 4466 238 49
• 3Q 2003 4558 92 -146
• 4Q 2003 4611 53 -39
• 1Q 2004 4793 182 129
• 2Q 2004 4894 101 -81
• 3Q 2004 4997 103 2
• 4Q 2004 5156 159 56
• 1Q 2005 5307 151 -8
• 2Q 2005 5446 139 -12
• 3Q 2005 5539 93 -46
• 4Q 2005 5680 141 48
• 1Q 2006 5827 147 6

63
Yearly trends for 3-5 year olds Rate of increase

• Year Net Gain Change
• ages 3-5
• 2003 572 n/a
• 2004 545 -4.72
• 2005 524 -3.85
• 2006 668 27.48

64
Total autism cases among 3-5 year olds rises
2002-2006

• 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
• 6,348
• 5,680
• 5,156
• 4,611
• 3,732

65
All ages Rate of increase takes off in 2006
66

• THERES SOMETHING
• ABOUT CALI

67
PREVALENCE RATES INDEXED TO U.S. AVERAGE, BASED
ON IDEA DATA BY YEAR OF BIRTH 1981-2000
CA prevalence rate relative to US average
California
United States average
Year of birth
68
US (green) CA (blue) and PA (red)Autism
Prevalence by birth cohort
69
Possible reasons why autism rates have not fallen
among California children born 2001-2003 (3-5
year old cohort)

• Mercury was in some childhood vaccines at least
  through 2003, at an unknown rate (no controlled
  experiment). Undetermined number of 3-5 year olds
  received thimerosal in their routine shots.
• Mercury was in Rho-GAM at least through 2003, at
  an unknown rate.
  
• Flu shot was gradually increased in use for
  pregnant women and infants from 1995-2004. Today
  there is a 50 compliance rate.
  
• Population and immigration grew in California
  after 2002 including thimerosal vaccinated
  children how many were immunized twice?
  
• There was a documented rise in environmental
  mercury exposures in California, from sources
  such as Asian coal, wildfires, cremation, etc.
  
• Early intervention Average age of diagnosis
  coming down.
  
• Aluminum content On the rise? Adjuvants are
  trade secrets

70
1) Mercury remained in some vaccines until 2003

• The latest vaccines that contained any
  thimerosal as a preservative, with the exception
  of some flu vaccines, were completed in 2001 and
  outdated in 2003.

Dr. Harvey Fineberg, IOM President Meet the
Press, August 7, 2005
71
HMO Market Penetration 2005(US Average 23)
Source Competitive Edge Reports
72
Merck Misled on Vaccines, Some SayFirm supplied
shots containing a mercury compound after saying
it had halted its use.Mar 7, 2005 Myron
Levin Los Angeles Times

• Drug maker Merck Co. continued to supply
  infant vaccine containing a mercury-based
  preservative for two years after declaring that
  it had eliminated the chemical.In September
  1999, Merck announced FDA approved a
  preservative-free version of its hepatitis B
  vaccine."Now, Merck's infant vaccine line," the
  company's press release said, "is free of all
  preservatives."But Merck continued to
  distribute vaccine containing the chemical known
  as thimerosal, along with the new product, until
  October 2001.
• Merck continued to supply the preservative-contai
  ning version "during the transition period to
  ensure an adequate supply," said spokeswoman Mary
  Elizabeth Blake.

73
2) Mercury Remained in Some Rho-GAM Shots Until
2003

• On April 16, 2001, Ortho
• Clinical Diagnostics was
• approved by FDA to
• produce RhoGAM without
• thimerosal The product
• has a 2-year dating
• period.
• FDA Statement www.fda.gov

74
3) The flu shot may matter

• A pregnant woman receives 25mcg, fetus is also
  exposed. Much is absorbed by fetal brain stem.
  Approximately 15 of fetal body burden was in the
  brain vs. 1.7 in moms in rat study, (Feng et al.
  2004 Toxicol Lett 152223)
• Human maternal/cord blood ratio is 12).
• 1lb fetus (0.5kg) exposed to 25mcg is 500 times
  over EPA limit.
  
• An 8oz fetus (0.25kg) is 1000 times over EPA
  limit.
  
• (WILD ASSUMPTION Mercury is 4 times more toxic
  to a fetus than to an adult, thus toxic
  equivalency is 4,000 times over EPA)
  
• At 6 months, a 16lb baby receives 12.5mcg or
  17 times over limit. At 7 months, baby receives
  12.5 mcg.
  
• Other shots contain 5-7mcg in residual Hg.
• Total possible exposure by 7 mos 57mcg.Max
  exposure in UK 75mcg

75
TRENDS IN WEIGHT ADJUSTED THIMEROSAL EXPOSURES
FROM CHILDHOOD VACCINES AND INFLUENZA VACCINES
DURING PREGNANCY AND EARLY INFANCY
Exposure from continued TCV production and
related inventory
From the childhood immunization schedule
Cumulative bolus mercury dose from vaccines th
rough 24 months
(mcg/kg)
From the influenza vaccine in utero/infancy
Year of birth
SOURCE Mark Blaxill, SAFEMINDS
76
Can Prenatal Exposures Make a Difference?

• Is it possible that toxic or environmental
  influences can cause autism? The answer is yes.
  But if it happens, it has to happen early in
  pregnancy.

77
Can Prenatal Exposures Make a Difference?

• Is it possible that toxic or environmental
  influences can cause autism? The answer is yes.
  But if it happens, it has to happen early in
  pregnancy.
• --Dr. Paul Offit, Childrens
  Hospital of Philadelphia

78
4) ENVIRONMENTAL HG ON THE INCREASE AFTER 2000

• COAL CHINA

79
Coal use goes way up in China 1996-2010

• 1996
• 1,500 million short tons

2010 2,666 million short tons
Source DOE/EIA, 1998, reference case
80
And Coal Carbon Emissions Double in China
1996-2010

1212 Metric Tons
682 Metric Tons
Source DOE/EIA, 1998, reference case
81
1990-2000 Annual global Hg emissions doubled
from 1.1 to 2.2 metric tonsAsian emissions
increased 58, from 705 to 1204 tons a year
SOURCE EPA
82
SOURCE EPA
83
Urbanization, Energy Air Pollution in China

• Asia, and China in particular, is NOW the single
  largest source of mercury from human activity
  (Pacyna et al., 2002).
  
• China contributes 500 Mg (1 Mg 106 g 1 metric
  ton) from small industrial furnaces and
  village-level coal burning, ALONE.
  

84

• THE PACIFIC MERCURY PLUMES
• Measurements by aircraft in 2001 and 2002 tracked
  mercury from industrialized southeast China, near
  Shanghai, and later detected the same mix of
  mercury and co-pollutants penetrating the west
  coast of the United States.
• These measurements were able to discriminate
  between urban anthropogenic sources of mercury
  and background natural sources.
  

85
THE SHANGHAI PLUME(Moves up and down Pacific
Coast)
Lower urban mercury plume. 10-day traverse from
South China Sea, ending May 5, 2002. Trajectory
calculations by N.O.A.A.
86
THE MONGOLIAN PLUME
Upper Central Asia mercury plume, five-day
traverse of eastern China and North Pacific from
Mongolian plateau origin region, ending May 5,
2002. Trajectory calculations by N.O.A.A.
87

88
(No Transcript)
89
(No Transcript)
90

The information on this map represents modeled
exposure estimates rather than measured exposures
91
(No Transcript)
92
Jacob Buck Pond, Maine
93

• Mercury accumulation rates in northeast US lakes
  during the 20th Century
  
• 27.1-175.4 mcg per square meter per year
• Peak values after 1970.
• Actual accumulation rates from fallout alone
• 10.466.3 mcg/m2/year.

94
Mercury and Wildfires

• A smoking gun?
• Mercury emissions from this boreal forest fire
• near Hearst, Ontario, Canada, last July were
• measured with instruments aboard a Twin Otter
  aircraft.
  

95
The National Center for Atmospheric Research and
the University of Washington Forest Fire Tests
2001

• Mercury is picked up by surfaces --leaves or
  needles and it stays there until those trees
  burn.
  
• Friedli and Radke conducted lab tests by burning
  forest samples from across the US -- Sensors
  immediately detected mercury.
  
• All samples released nearly all the mercury,
  ranging from 14 to 71 nanograms per gram of fuel
  -- a nanogram is one trillionth of a gram.
  
• Average acre of forest contains about 22 tons
  (10,000 kg) of fuel. Each acre of a fire can emit
  up to 71 grams of mercury, which is 71 MILLION
  mcg, or about 2.5 ounces.
• Fires are estimated to contribute 800 tons of
  mercury each year, or 25 of all anthropogenic
  sources. The EPA estimates that U.S. coal-fired
  plants emit 41 tons Hg.

96
11 of top 20 CA fires happened in the last 10
years
SOURCE Calif. Dept. of Forestry
97

• YEARS No. FIRES ACRES MERCURY
  STRUCTURES
  
• BURNED RELEASED DESTROYED
• 1995-2000 32,038 740,858 57.8 tons 2,049
• 2001-2005 34,110 860,260 67.2 tons
  7,228
  
• Increase 6 16 16 353
• Estimate based on 22 tons of fuel burned per acre

98

• Cremation costs to rise as tooth fillings poison
  the living 8th January 2007
  
• Cremations now cause nearly 1/6th of all UK
  mercury emissions.
  
• This would likely rise by 2/3rds by 2020, making
  crematoria the biggest cause of mercury
  pollution.
  
• Cremations now account for 3/4ths of UK funerals.
  The rise in mercury pollution from crematoria is
  caused by what dentists call the "heavy metal
  generation" - those 40 and above who are now
  dying with more teeth because of better dental
  care.
• Millions of Britons have two to four grams of
  mercury in their mouths. One gram can pollute a
  25-acre lake.
  
• Austria, Belgium, Germany, Holland, Norway,
  Sweden and Switzerland now regulate mercury
  emissions from crematoria
  

99
California Cremations on the Rise
National Funeral Directors Assoc.
100
And California Leads the Nation
101
California Cadaver EmissionsOne-Half Ton of
Mercury in 05?

• 118,700 cremations in 2005
• UK 4 grams amalgam mercury/person
• US ??
• _at_4g 474.8 kilos 1,044lbs

102
Other Environmental Hg Sources

• Auto switches / junkyards.
• Fungicides (ethyl merucry) used on golf courses,
  parks, cemeteries, playgrounds, tree farms,
  orchards, vineyards, etc.
  
• Paper / pulp processors heavy industry.
• PMA
• Thimerosal in OTC products like lens solution,
  eye drops and nasal sprays.
  
• Fish, especially sushi.
• Dental amalgams.
• RATIO OF MATERNAL TO CORD BLOOD MERCURY LEVELS IS
  12
  

103
Early Intervention Producing More Diagnoses Among
3-5 Year Olds?

• Average Age of
• Diagnosis 1990 5.3 years
• Average Age 2000 4.4 years
• Average Age 2006 3.1 years

104
CA Population Rebounds Post 9/113-5 year olds
(In millions)

• 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
• 1.575
• 1.559
• 1.523
• 1.519
• 1.480 1.480

105
California Legal Immigration Rebounds - Post 9/11
106
Proportion of Asian and Hispanic children with
autism rises 18 in DDS system from 2002-2006

• Ethnicity 2002 2006
• Asian/Hispanic 6,518 12,426
• 33 of total 39 of total
• White 8,448 13,242
• 43 of total 41 of total
• SOURCE DDS