Francis X. Johnson

1
Bio-resources for Development in a Changing
Climate A review of issues, progress, and plans
Sida / SEI - Climate for Development
Seminar Stockholm, March 13 2009
Francis X. Johnson Senior Research Fellow, Energy
and Climate Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
2
SEI historical highlights on biomass and bioenergy

• 1977-1980s Beijer Institute studies on fuel wood
  in Africa
• 1980s cookstoves, appropriate technology
• 1980s-90s Energy Modelling/Analysis (LEAP, other
  tools)
• 1990s Biomass utilisation technology/implementati
  on studies
• 1998-2000 Study on energy from sugar cane,
  Luena, Zambia
• 2000-04 World Bank study-Advancing Modern
  Bioenergy
• 2003-09 bioenergy research networks, integrated
  assessment

Outline of the Talk

1. Introduction
2. Characteristics and Potential for Biofuels
   (Bio-resources)
3. Review and Examples of Activities and
   Deliverables
4. Review of Progress
5. Plans for remainder of programme

3
Bioenergy-Climate-Development driving forces

• Rural development - creation of sustainable
  livelihoods
• Relieving resource pressures and stresses
• Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration
• Energy security local regional global
• Rural health issues - indoor air
• Urban health issues lead, air quality
• future competitiveness of agro-industries
• Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits
• Carbon Finance opportunities for LDCs, including
  CDM
• Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly
  volatile market
• Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through
  diversification

4
Share of biomass in global energy consumption
Source IEA and UNDP, 2004-2007
5
Distribution of biomass used globally for energy
by type and end-use (total global energy use
estimated at 450 EJ)
Source IEA/WEA 2007
6
Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains low
in most world regions
7
Land area per capita by type and major countries
or regions
Source FAOSTAT, 2008
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The Role of modern bioenergy

• Modern bioenergy will play a leading role in the
  global transition to clean and sustainable energy
  due to two decisive advantages over other
  renewables
• Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it
  can be drawn on at any time, in sharp contrast to
  daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and
  small hydro sources, whose contributions are all
  constrained by the high costs of energy storage.
• Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e.
  energy carriers, for modern economies
  electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar,
  wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity
  and in some cases heat.
• Modern bioenergy has several other advantages
  over other energy resources
• provides rural jobs and income to people who grow
  or harvest the bioenergy resources bioenergy is
  more labour-intensive than other energy
  resources
• increases profitability in the agriculture,
  food-processing and forestry sectors. Biomass
  residues and wastes--often with substantial
  disposal costs--can instead be converted to
  energy for sale or for internal use to reduce
  energy bills
• helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees,
  shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils,
  with energy production and sales as a valuable
  bonus

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The Bioenergy Transition the transformation of
biomass from a predominantly local resource into
a strategic, multi-purpose, multi-product
international commodity

• 1. Local use of forest and agricultural residues
• 2. Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of
  residues, and energy efficiency
• 3. Infrastructure development
• 4. National market development through supportive
  policies and incentives
• 5. Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large
  scale utilization, transport logistics
• 6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs
• 7. Global commodity market

10
Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials,
theoretical biofuel demands and production
capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world
regions (Areas of circles depict approximate
comparative scales)
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FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCEEstimated Energy output per
unit of fossil fuel input
ETHANOL
BIODIESEL
Source Various, compiled by World Watch
Institute, 2007.
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Summary of activities deliverables (Tasks 3.1
3.3)

• Stakeholder Events and Expert Consultations
• FAO consultations SOA bioenergy, food
  security, and climate
• Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Consultations
• Organisation of Side Events WIREC, Bali-COP
• Capacity-Building and Research Networks
• Southern African Biofuels Association (SABA)
• South Asia (SAARC) Biofuels Strategy
• LDC Implementation Issues - EU Biofuels
  Sustainability Criteria
• Regional Assessments
• SADC region sugar cane
• Food-feed-fuel MERCOSUR/Uruguay soybeans
• Bioenergy Best practice, South-South technology
  transfer
• Local case studies
• Tanzania land use impacts
• Mozambique agricultural development -
  livelihoods
• Case study 3 HH-use of ethanol stoves, location
  to be finalised

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North-South-South Forum on Biofuels, Climate and
Sustainable DevelopmentOfficial Side Event
Washington International Renewable Energy
Conference Thursday 6 March 2008, 1500 Room 149
A

• Introductory remarks
• Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Stockholm
  Environment Institute (SEI)
• Moderator
• Suzanne Hunt, Worldwatch Institute
• Panellists
• Sergio Trindade, SE2T International, NY, USA
• Li Junfeng, Deputy Director, Energy Research
  Institute (ERI), China
• Prof. Roberto Moreira, National Reference Centre
  for Biomass, Brazil
• Gail Karlsson, Energia
• Lawrence Agbemabiese, UNEP-DTIE
• Ishmael Edjekumhene, KITE, Ghana

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Key provisions of EU Renewable Energy Directive
related to biofuels

• Binding 10 share of renewable fuels for
  transport
• Biofuels must meet sustainability criteria to
  qualify
• Minimum GHG reduction 35, increasing to 50 in
  2017
• Establishes no-go areas undisturbed forests,
  nature reserves, bio-diverse grasslands, wetlands
• Biofuels from wastes or lignocellulosics
  emphasised
• Methodology Equation Default values for GHG
  emissions
• Incentives for biofuels from degraded lands
• Member States reporting requirements, COM updates
• Indirect land use change (ILUC) NOT included, COM
  to issue report on methodologies for ILUC in 2010

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What implications for Least Developed Countries?

• Large potential market provides a major
  opportunity
• Meeting GHG criteria will generally not be a
  problem, but tracking, data collection, analysis
  could be
• Land availability vs. land tenure vs. changing
  land values
• Definition of grasslands
• Degraded lands - given low cost of land in
  general for foreign investors, few incentives to
  use it
• Co-products allocation should be developed
• lower energy intensity of agriculture should be
  an advantage
• Measurement, monitoring, compliance are the key
  issues for LDC producers missing from Directive

16
Potentially suitable and available land for
sugar cane in southern Africa (1000 ha)
Comparison to existing cane cultivation
Source Watson, H., Johnson, F.X. et al 2008
17
Sugar Cane Harvesting is semi-mechanised
18
Burning prior to harvest still common in Africa
(to remove pests and extraneous
matter)Phase-out of burning would lead to
mechanisation
19
Identifying key land use issues for Tanzania case
study
20
Mozambique Case Study analysing scale,
livelihoods
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Soybean equivalent exports to EU (2006-2007)
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Soybean hectares/exports to EU by use (2006-2007)
23
Jatropha plantation and processing in Tanzania
24
Jatropha processing, by-products, filtering,
end-use
25
Ethanol for cooking stoves
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Timing for Completion of analyses/studies

• Regional Assessments
• April SADC region sugar cane
• June Bioenergy best practice, S-S Tech Transfer
• Aug Food-feed-fuel soy - MERCOSUR/Uruguay
• Local or sub-regional case studies
• Oct Tanzania land use impacts
• Nov Mozambique agric. development, livelihoods
• Dec Case study 3 HH-ethanol stoves, location
  TBD

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Thanks for your attention!
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28
Equation for calculating GHG emissions