HIVAIDS in subSaharan Africa July 2002

1
HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan AfricaJuly 2002
2
Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic
3
HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa,
1986-2001
1986
1991
20 39
10 20
5 10
1 5
0 1
trend data unavailable
1996
2001
outside region
4
Number of people living with HIV/AIDS
in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001
30
Millions
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Source UNAIDS, 2002
5
Number of people who died from HIV/AIDS
in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001
2,500
Thousands
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Source UNAIDS, 2002
6
Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and
2020 in selected African countries
50
2005
2020
40
30

20
10
0
Togo
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Botswana
Cameroon
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Cote dIvoire
Mozambique
Guinea-Bissau
United Rep. of Tanzania
Central African Republic
Sources ILO (2000) POPILO population and labour
force projection UN Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, Population Division (1998) World
Population Prospects the 1998 Revision
7
Projected population structure with
and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020
80
Projected population structure in 2020
75
Males
Females
70
65
Deficits due to AIDS
60
55
50
Age in years
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Population (thousands)
Source US Census Bureau, World Population
Profile 2000
8
Increase in mortality among men between
15 and 60, selected African countries, 1986-1997
80
estimated for 6 years before survey
70
estimated for year of survey
60
50
Probability of dying from all causes
40
30
20
10
0
Tanzania 1996
Malawi 1992
Zimbabwe 1994
Uganda 1995
Zambia 1996-97
Source Timaeus I, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl) S15-S27
9
Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child
mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010
250
Deaths per 1,000 live births
200
Without AIDS
With AIDS
150
100
50
0
Botswana
Malawi
Kenya
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source US Census Bureau
10
Changes in life expectancy in selected African
countries with high and low HIV prevalence 1950
- 2005
with high HIV prevalence
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Botswana
with low HIV prevalence
Madagascar
Mali
1950 1955
1955- 1960
1960- 1965
1965- 1970
1970- 1975
1975- 1980
1980- 1985
1985- 1990
1990- 1995
2000- 2005
1995- 2000
Source UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the
2000 Revision.
11
Predicted loss in life expectancy
due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000
Predicted life expectancy
Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS
Botswana
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Kenya
Zambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Rwanda
Mozambique
Haiti
Cambodia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
12
Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000
22.6
25.0
20.0
15.0
of Total
10.1
9.1
10.0
6.7
5.5
4.3
3.6
3.1
2.9
2.3
5.0
0.0
HIV/AIDS
Malaria
Perinatal conditions
Tuber culosis
Cerebro vascular disease
Measles
Diarrhoeal disease
Lower respiratory infections
Ischaemic Heart disease
Maternal conditions
Source The World Health Report 2001, WHO
13
Reduction in production in a household with an
AIDS death, Zimbabwe
Crops
Reduction in output





Source Stover Bollinger, 1999
14
Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34,
with and without AIDS in South Africa 1980-2025
2,000
Without AIDS
1,600
With AIDS
1,200
Deaths (Thousands)
800
400
0
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
Source UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the
2000 Revision.
15
Reduction in size of primary- school-age
population by 2010, in selected African countries
30.0
25.0
20.0
reduction
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Kenya
Uganda
Source World Bank, 2000
16
Reduction in life expectancy compared to the no
AIDS scenario in selected countries 2000-2005
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Swaziland
South Africa
Kenya
Mozambique
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Haiti
Guyana
Bahamas
Cambodia
Dominican Rep.
Angola
Myanmar
Thailand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Number of years
Source UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the
2000 Revision.
17
Percentage of 15-19 girls who do not know that a
HIV-infected person
may look healthy, 1994-1999
100
90
80
70
60
Percentage who do not know
50
40
30
20
10
0
Chad
Mali
Haiti
Togo
Peru
Brazil
Niger
Nepal
Lesotho
Benin
Kenya
Malawi
Eritrea
Turkey
Uganda
Zambia
Comoros
Tanzania
Mongolia
Viet Nam
Romania
Cameroon
Zimbabwe
Cambodia
Guatemala
Bangladesh
Cape Verde
Madagascar
Côte d'Ivoire
Mozambique
South Africa
Papua New Guinea
Dominican Republic
Central African Republic
Sources UNICEF, DHS surveys and other nationwide
surveys, 1994-99.
18
Public expenditure on health as percentage of
general government expenditure in African
countries 1998
18.0
15.0
Abuja Target 15.0
12.0
Expenditure on health
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
Guinea-Bissau
Central African Republic
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
South Africa
Angola
Mauritius
Sierra Leone
Liberia
Algeria
Burundi
Eritrea
Cote d'Ivoire
Somalia
Nigeria
Botswana
Gabon
Tunisia
Senegal
Sudan
Cameroon
Benin
Seychelles
Swaziland
Ethiopia
Mauritania
Lesotho
Guinea
Morocco
Congo
Togo
Egypt
Niger
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Namibia
Zambia
DR Congo
Zimbabwe
Sao Tome and Principe
Cape Verde
Comoros
Mozambique
Gambia
Chad
Kenya
Heavily indebted, poor countries
Mali
Ghana
Uganda
Malawi
UR Tanzania
Rwanda
Source WHO, World Health Report 2001