Sub-Saharan Demographic Challenges: The example of Burkina Faso

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Sub-Saharan Demographic ChallengesThe example
of Burkina Faso
John F. May The World Bank
John F. May The World Bank
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW

• The last Census (December 2006) yielded a
  population of 14 million
• This means an estimated population in mid-2008 of
  14.7 million and about 400.000 more Burkinabè
  every year
• The rate of population growth has accelerated in
  Burkina Faso from 1.5 to 3.1 over the past 55
  years
• Out-migration has been heavy in the past but has
  decreased in recent years
• Given the rapid population growth, the population
  has become younger as illustrated by the age
  structure

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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW
Burkina Faso Age Pyramids 1960, 1990
2010 1960 4.6 million 1990 8.9 million 2010
16.1 millions
80
Male
Female
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
1960
0-4
Number for each age group in million
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW
Burkina Faso Age Pyramids 1960, 1990
2010 1960 4.6 million 1990 8.9 million 2010
16.1 millions
80
Male
Female
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
1990
1960
0-4
Number for each age group in million
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW
Burkina Faso Age Pyramids 1960, 1990
2010 1960 4.6 million 1990 8.9 million 2010
16.1 millions
80
Male
Female
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
2010
10-14
1990
1960
0-4
Number for each age group in million
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGETOO LATE, TOO SLOW

• The total fertility rate (TFR) was estimated at
  6.2 children on average in the 2006 Census, the
  same level observed in the 2003 Demographic and
  Health Survey (DHS)
• In total, as compared to Latin America and Asia,
  demographic change in Burkina Faso appears to be
  too late and too slow

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II. A PHENOMENAL POPULATION INCREASE
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II. A PHENOMENAL POPULATION INCREASE

• The first consequence of the past rapid
  demographic growth has been a dramatic increase
  in the population and population density
• The densification of the Burkinabè population
  will continue to accelerate in the future
• The population densification will be even more
  dramatic with respect to arable land
• As most sub-Saharan countries, Burkina Faso
  experiences a rapid urbanization

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II. A PHENOMENAL POPULATION INCREASE
Burkina Faso High variant United Nations
Projections (2006) 1990 8.9 million 2010 16.0
million 2050 42.5 million
80
Male
Female
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
2050
10-14
2010
1990
0-4
Number for each age group in million
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II. A PHENOMENAL POPULATION INCREASE
Burkina Faso Low variant United Nations
Projections (2006) 1990 8.9 million 2010 16.0
million 2050 32.8 million
80
Male
Female
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
2050
10-14
2010
1990
0-4
Number for each age group in million
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III. THE LOST DECADES LESSONS LEARNED

• Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have engaged
  in major efforts to reduce poverty levels and
  reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
• The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) do not
  mention demographic variables specifically
  although 7 out of the 8 MDGs will depend on
  future demographic outcomes
• In fact, the phenomenal population increase has
  put Burkina Faso off track to meet the MDGs
  goals by the target date of 2015 and the decades
  since 1990 have been lost

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III. THE LOST DECADES LESSONS LEARNED

• Meeting the need for family planning services can
  help reduce population growth and make achieving
  the MDGs easier and more affordable
• The key Burkinabè development strategies do not
  address the population issues directly and
  proactively
• The old National Population Policy was too broad
  and the new National Population Policy, revised
  in 2000, is also encyclopedic and far too timid
  to address the huge demographic challenges

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III. THE LOST DECADES LESSONS LEARNED

• It is urgent to legitimize again the
  interventions in the area of population and
  reproductive health
• Specific steps are needed to address the
  demographic variables in the national development
  strategies and expand the family planning RH
  programs
• In sum, what is needed is to focus the efforts on
  a few key interventions that can possibly bring
  demographic change (for example, Niger DGPP 2007)

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IV. NEEDED CHANGES 50 YEARS OR A CENTURY?

• One can expect that mortality levels will
  continue their rapid decline
• Fertility levels are the main engine of the
  demographic transition
• The key determinants of fertility are
  socio-economic (intermediate determinants) as
  well as biological and behavioral (proximate
  determinants)
• Intermediate determinants of fertility are
  crucial although there is often a time-lag
  regarding fertility outcomes

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IV. NEEDED CHANGES 50 YEARS OR A CENTURY?

• Policy interventions on the proximate
  determinants are also crucial for the future
  course of fertility
• Changes in the proximate determinants of
  fertility that affect fertility directly are both
  feasible and effective
• A sharp decline in fertility is a necessary
  condition for the country to be in a position to
  build rapidely its human capital, and increase
  education health levels

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IV. NEEDED CHANGES 50 YEARS OR A CENTURY?