Title: The End of Industrialism Going Home
1The End of IndustrialismGoing Home
- Planning for Hard Times
- Presented
- by
- Pat Murphy, Executive Director
- Community Solutions
- Yellow Springs, OH 45387
- October 27, 2007
2Community Solutions Vision Mission
- Vision To reduce energy consumption everywhere
in every way through community and personal
action - Mission To provide knowledge and practices to
support low energy lifestyles in the household
economic sector (food, housing, transportation) - Key Assumptions
- Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated
- Must become sustainable watchword of our
times - Sustainability can be, and must be, measured
3Community Solution Historical View
- For 10,000 years the world was Agrarian
- 200 years ago Industrialism began
- Steam Engine James Watt 1769 (technology)
- Wealth of Nations Adam Smith 1776
(philosophy) - Fundamental to colonialism past and present
- Industrialism based on fossil fuels, machines
and competition - Agrarianism based on land, biology (water, air)
and cooperation - Industrialism is not sustainable
- Agrarianism is sustainable
- World will become more Agrarian one way or the
other - An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and
Internet - There are many intermediate technologies
4Fossil Fuel History and Future
- Major increase in coal burning from 1875 1925
- Oil usage began in first quarter of 20th century
- Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945
- Accelerated population growth
5Population Increase and CO2
2007
1945
- From 2.4 billion people in 1945 to 6.6 billion in
2007 - Fossil fuels feed our economy and our
population - 1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2.6 pounds of
CO2
6The Beginning of the End
- Running low on oil
- Petroleum Geologists (ASPO)
- All fossil fuels finite
- Predictions began in 1970s
- Running low on atmosphere
- Climate scientists (NOAA)
- Carbon absorption finite
- Predictions began in 1970s
2006
7Sustainability Defined and Measured
Sustainable 1 ton/person
- Sustainability defined 1 ton/CO2 per person
per year - 20 of 200 nations with 70 of population
8The Industrial Century 1930 2030
- Olduvai Gorge Metaphor Richard Duncan Oil,
Gas, Coal - 1945 Country still Agrarian just before
hyper growth - Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c 4 to 1 increase
9Energy (and CO2) Inequity
- Ratio of US and OECDL
- to ROW (ROW1)
- US per capita energy use/CO2 7/ 8 times ROW
citizens - US with 4.5 of population has generated 27 of
CO2
10World and U.S. Household Sector Energy
World
US
Global Use
US Use
- Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent
(BOE) - Each American uses more energy for food than 5.7
billion people use for everything!
11The Inconvenient Truth
- Western Industrial life style is threatening
life itself - China India (2.5 billion people) have chosen
industrialism - Consumerism replaced socialism/communism
- Ecological deterioration is accelerating
- What kind of world will we leave our children,
grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will
they say of us? Will our great grand children
say, "What kind of monsters must they have been? - US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO
2006
12Beginning the Change (to Sustainability?)
- Three options Plan A, Plan B, Plan C
- Plan A Business as usual (new fuels). Same
lifestyle - Plan B Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar.
Same lifestyle - Plan C The Partys Over. Change lifestyle. Cut
back fuels - Plan A Denial Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion,
Carbon Capture - The record is bleak. Big potential for war.
- Plan B Substitution Wind, solar, biofuels
- Wind solar still about 1. Agri-fuels (food of
the poor) - Plan C Redesign Curtailment and Community
- Use intermediate technologies
- Reduce consumption change life style
- Focus on household sector food, house, car
13Community Solutions Targets
- Vision Mission Summarized
- To reduce energy consumption through community
and personal action in the household economic
sector including food, housing, and
transportation - Agrarian Food System This presentation
- House Deep Retrofit Linda Wigington
- Smart Jitney Bob Steinbach
14U.S. Food System 10 for 1 Ratio
- Replaced labor with fossil fuels
- From .05 to 10 fossil calories
- Labor efficient, energy negative
- land inefficient, soil destructive
- Varies by food type
- All foods 1 for 10
- Factory meat 1 for 16
- Sodas 1 for 30
- ROW (5.7 billion) is quasi Agrarian Mostly
Sustainable - Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food
calories - This means 2550, or more, of people grow food
15Post WWII Policy Destroy Family Farm
- In 1945 US was still Agrarian to a degree
- US Declared War on Farmers in late 1940s
- Ezra Benson Eisenhower era (1950s) Get Big or
Get Out - Earl Butz Nixon era (1960s) Adapt or Die
- Battle was over by the 1970s
16Needed to Slander Agrarians
- We are worldlywise, cool, hip, sophisticated,
blasé, trendy, upscale, tony, chic (we being
machine people) - They are provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds,
bumpkins, yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies,
natives, indigenous, county-cousins, rednecks,
clodhoppers, (they being land people) - Our work empowering. Theirs back breaking
mind numbing - Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in
history - Hurt 100s of millions of people around the world
- Including 10s of millions of Americans
- Assault continues with WTO programs
- Indigenous farmers (U.S. worldwide) are
becoming serfs
17Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison
- Agrarian countries use more labor for healthier
foods, soils - Agricultural workers US 1, China 38
- China gets 6 times the calories per acre while
preserving soil - US generates 6 times the CO2 per person
18Cubas Move to Modern Agrarianism
- Experienced Peak Oil 1990
- Severe and Rapid
- Extreme societal change
- Searched country for farmers
- In 18 months became 80 Organic
- Major reforestation program
- Urban gardens 50 of vegetables
- Cubans diet changed
- Pork to veggies
- Free Medical Care/Education/Sports
- Few cars/goods, tiny houses
19Cuba Before
- Rapid change dictated
- by hunger, not Fidel
- Average Cuban lost 20 lbs.
- Government changed land policies rapidly (like
Roosevelt) - Cuba only country to achieve sustainable
development award! - World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report
- UN Human Development Index Ecological
Footprint
20Understanding the Food System
- Cant manage if you cant measure to measure
is to know - Need to understand energy/food numbers
- Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) Look in
the fields - Two key divisions of our food system
- Meat and Animal Products Feed and Fodder
- Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO)
- Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials
- Most of acreage devoted to this
- Plants Food
- Basic food is healthy grains, vegetables,
grass-fed meat - Manufacturing process depletes plant food value
21Harvested Acreage The Basic Numbers
- 268 million acres planted the source of our
food - All food is plant based animals are
intermediaries - The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products
22Grains Main Staples (Calorie) Crops
- Grains are the basis of animal manufacturing
process - Limited grains for personal consumption
23The Big Grain Crop Corn
- US is worlds largest corn producer
- 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004 10
billion domestic - Land provides 1,900 pounds per person per year
- 2,200 pounds average food weight per year per
person - Little corn eaten directly a raw material for
meat and sweets - 6.2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat
- Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
- Heroin of the food system
- Michael Pollan We are the corn people
24Grains Wheat
- Largest grain crop after corn
- Used primarily for human food rather than feed
- Domestic use 1,172 million bushels
- 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed per person
- Wheat for humans is highly processed (97 white
flour) - White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped
product - Vitamins added back by processors inadequate 20
out, 4 in - Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods
- Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals,
phytochemicals - Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels
plain wheat - Other grains sorghum, barley, rice, oats,
millet, rye 12 - Example of lack of variety
25Oilseeds
- Soybean Unnatural food for animals bad fats
for humans - Barely existed in early 20th century
26Soybeans
- US is worlds largest soybean producer
- 3,123 million bushels produced in 2004
- 2,021 million bushels used for domestic
consumption - 400 pounds per person per year
- For animal feed and manufactured food
- Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls
- After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to
animals - Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated
soybean oil) - Cocaine of the food system
- Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower,
mustard 6
27Hay Largest crop after grains and oilseeds
- Largest crop after corn soybeans
- Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed
- 158 million tons in 2004
- 1,073 pounds per person
- Enters American diet through beef cattle
- and dairy cows
- If corn provides meat, hay provides milk
28Healthier Crops
- Very small part of acreage planted
- Priority is for bad food
29Sugars, Legumes and Nuts
- Sugars
- Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn
syrup - Sugar acreage 60 beets and 40 cane
- Legumes
- Dried beans, dried peas and lentils
- Low energy replacements for CAFO products
- .7 U.S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and
lentils - Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat
- Nuts
- .3 of harvested acreage for nuts
- Nuts can replace some CAFO meat
30Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N)
- Surprisingly small amount of acreage
- Americans eat about half whats recommended
31Vegetables
- Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables
- and vegetables for processing.
- 30 Main Vegetables
- artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima
beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots,
cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers,
eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce,
romaine and leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell
peppers, potatoes, radishes, spinach, sweet
potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili peppers,
spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables - Only 1.1 of farmland is used for growing
vegetables.
32Very Little Vegetable Diversity (lbs)
- Most potato consumption is French Fries
33Fruits
- Divided into fresh fruits and
- fruits for processing.
- 35 Main Fruits
- apples, apricots, avocados, bananas,
cherries, cantaloupes, cranberries, grapes,
grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons, limes,
mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches,
pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries,
tangelos, tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon,
blackberries, boysenberries, cranberries, dates,
figs, loganberries, olives, raspberries, and
other miscellaneous fruit and berries. - 1.1 of farmland allocated to fruit production
34Lack of Fruit Diversity
- Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages
35Acreage Distribution Implications
- Most of acreage for meat products and
manufactured foods - Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery
manufacturing - Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for
manufactured foods - Wheat for white flour
36Industrialized Food Results
- Bad Health
- 5,000 yearly medical expenses, 2,300 food
expenses - Cheap food contributes to bad health
- Tortured animals
- Lack of Diversity
- Deteriorating soil
- Poisoned waterways
- Fossil water drawdown
37Bad Food and Poor Health
- U.S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich
nations - Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canadas 80
- U.S. medical costs per capita twice European
countries - Cheap food means expensive medical care
- Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese
- Food system the main culprit
- Two major flaws CAFO meat and Manufactured
Foods - Two major destructive foods Corn and Soybeans
- Foolishness vs. Wisdom
- US spends 2,500 for food and 5,000 for medical
care - EU spends 3,500 for food and 2,500 for medical
care
38Atwood Study Poor Food Choices
- Nutritional Density Popularity
- What People Should Eat What people
Eat - Highest to lowest Lowest to
highest - Broccoli 1 Tomatoes
- Spinach 2 Oranges
- Brussels Sprouts 3 Potatoes
- Lima Beans 4 Lettuce
- Peas 5 Sweet Corn
- Asparagus 6 Bananas
- Artichokes 7 Carrots
- Cauliflower 8 Cabbage
- Sweet Potatoes 9 Onions
- Carrots 10 Sweet potatoes
- Sweet corn 11 Peas
- Potatoes 12 Spinach
- Cabbage 13 Broccoli
- Tomatoes 14 Lima beans
- Banana 15 Asparagus
39Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat
- Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life
- Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens
scratch - CAFOs deny these natural behaviors
- Extreme stress (pain) for the animal
- No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!)
- No fresh air (never go outside)
- Many other torments
- Very short horrible lives
- Live in fecal material (ground/air)
- Antibiotics required to keep animals alive
- High risk to human health
40Animal Products Not Grandparents Meat
- Animals earlier always part of diet
- Hunting and grazing
- Animals no longer graze freely
- Inhumane CAFO conditions
- Fed wrong foods
- Diet injures them
- Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of
fossil fuels - FAO Report Livestock's long shadow 2006
- Livestock rearing creates more CO2 equivalent
than cars - Americans eat twice what they used to
- US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs, Central
America-103 lbs
41Manufactured Foods Little Diversity
- 320,000 food and beverage products in U.S.
- Average supermarket carries 30,000- 40,000
- People dont eat 30,000 to 40,000 different
things - Recipes not food combinations of white flour,
corn sweeteners hydrogenated soybean oil with
chemical flavoring coloring - Americas Flavor Industry along New Jersey
Turnpike - Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U.S.
- Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - 1.4
billion - Also provides shaping and texturing products
- Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of
foods
42Soil Destruction Water Drawdown
- Agriculture uses most of U.S water
- Ogallala Drawdown occurring
- Irrigation vital to food supply
- Not sustainable
- Erosion
- Topsoil becoming more shallow
- Part of giant monocultures
- Quality of top soil declining pesticides
- 194850 million lbs. 7 loss to insects
- 196535 million lbs.
- 1989806 million lbs.
- 2000985 million lbs. 13 loss to insects
- Agrochemicals changing soil composition
43Why Dont We Know This?
- Major cigarette companies are major food
companies - Grocery Manufacturers of America control food
info - Michael Pollan If it has a health claim, dont
eat it - 30 billion advertising for food 10 billion
for children
44Conspiracy with USDA
- Marion Nestle Food Politics
- Explains corporate control
- Recommends Eat less, eat fruits, vegetables and
whole grains, avoid junk food - Following her advice would destroy industrial
agriculture - And harm medical providers
- Food companies control nutrition
- And information
- USDA supports agribusiness
45Summary Changing Times
- Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically
alter our future - Cant have 10-to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio
any longer - At the core of the change will be a changed diet
- Sustainability implies measurable Agrarianism
- Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to
industrialism - From 2 of employment farmers to 25 (or more)
- U.S. will become more Agrarian like it or not
- Agrarianism implies healthof people, animals,
landscapes, soils - Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost
everything - Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle
46Recommendations
- 1. Learn Ignorance of food system is appalling
- Due to deliberate action of food industry and
USDA - Learning includes understanding plight of workers
animals - Everyone must master nutrition
- 2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels
40 less - 3. Change your diet to a healthier one starting
NOW - Coming crisis cannot support current medical
spending - Eat seasonally and locally
- 4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA)
farmers - Rebuild family farms
- 5. Plant a backyard garden Must see food as
life
47Wendell Berry The Unsettling of America
- Earths growing numbers raises the specter of a
famine more catastrophic than the world has ever
seen. -
- Wendell Berry we should be at work overhauling
all our assumptions about ourselves and what we
have done.If we are heading toward apocalypse,
then obviously we must undertake an ordeal of
preparation. We must cleanse ourselves of
slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn
to discipline ourselves, to restrain ourselves,
to need less.We must understand what the health
of the earth requires, and we must put that
before all other needs...let us undertake the
labors of wisdom and make the necessary
sacrifices of luxury and comfort. The
Unsettling of America, 1977