Title: Reliance Industries Limited
1Reliance Industries Limited First Half Results
1999 - 2000 October 20, 1999
2Index
Macro Economic Environment Operating
Environment Financial Performance Business Review
Shareholder Value Enhancement Summary
3- Macroeconomic Environment
4Improved GDP Outlook for Asia
GDP Growth Rates () 1998 1999 (E) 2000
(E) Japan -2.8 1.4 1.7 China 7.8 7.0 8.2 Hong
Kong -5.1 1.0 3.5 South Korea -5.8 8.1 6.0 Singapo
re 0.3 6.3 5.0 Thailand -9.4 5.0 4.1 Indonesia -14
.5 0.1 5.1 India 6.0 6.5 6.5 Source Research
Reports
The Asian economic recovery is well underway -
GDP growth in the region may average 5 in the
year 2000
5Stable Regional Currency Environment
change over Currency 3
months 6 months 1 year Yen 12.8 11.9 8.9 Ko
rean Won -1.4 -0.1 10.2 Singapore
1.9 1.9 -2.8 Thai Baht -5.1 -4.8 -2.7 Indonesia
n Rupiah -15.5 8.4 -1.4 Indian Rupee -0.4 -1.2 -2.
4
The relative stability in regional currencies is
indicative of the improvement in the overall
business climate
6Performance of Regional Stock Markets
Country change YTD (US) Japan 37 China 33
Hongkong 25 South Korea 38 Singapore 41 Thailan
d (3) Indonesia 40 India 57
The general improvement in economic prospects is
also reflected in buoyant stock market trends
7Trends in Crude Prices
Crude prices have moved up sharply - 88
year-on-year
8Economic Recovery in India
- GDP growth estimates revised to 6 - 6.5
- Industrial production growth increased to 6.3 in
August 1999 from 5.9 in July 1999 - Growth in manufacturing sector at 6.1 in August
1999 electricity sector up 11 - Inflation rate remains at historic lows - WPI at
1.8 - Revival in transportation sector - medium and
heavy commercial vehicles production up 63 in H1
1999-00 - Cement production up 21 and steel 7
A broad-based economic recovery is underway in
India
9 10International Price Trends - Feedstocks
The strong uptrend in crude prices has driven key
petrochemicals feedstocks higher
11International Price Trends - Polyester
The average prices for PSF/POY in the first half
have been lower than corresponding year ago
figures
12Domestic Price Trends - Polyester
Domestic polyester prices have tracked
international trends
13International Price Trends - Plastics
A significant recovery has been witnessed in
plastics prices
14Domestic Price Trends - Plastics
The average plastics selling prices in the first
half have been 15-20 higher than corresponding
year ago figures
15Factors Contributing to Price Recovery
- Stronger than anticipated recovery in regional
economies and continued growth in the US and
Euroland - A sharp rise in crude prices - driving product
prices higher, throughout the petrochemicals
chain - Destocking phase over last year - inventories at
normal to low levels - Y2K concerns a short term demand factor
- Restocking by processors
- Commissioning delays in some ongoing projects -
Formosa Phase II, Petronas/Union Carbide
Petrochemicals prices have been driven up by a
combination of cost push and demand pull factors
16Outlook for Prices and Margins
- Indications are that the bottom of the
petrochemicals cycle may be behind us - Demand supply balance improving - no visible
capacity growth beyond the year 2001 - several
major projects in the region cancelled - Stronger yen and restructuring in Japans
petrochemicals industry to lead to further
rationalisation in the supply side - Eventual weakening in crude oil prices can lead
to improvement in margins - RILs strategy of selling 10-15 below landed
cost of imports - cushion against any reduction
in import duties
The global petrochemicals cycle may be turning
sooner than was earlier anticipated
17Domestic Demand Supply Position
- POY/PSF currently balanced
- strong demand growth
- no new capacities announced - other than RIL
- rationalisation by RIL leading to more
competitive industry structure - Fears of PE/PP surplus unfounded
- Non RIL projects running behind schedule
- New capacities facing technical and quality
problems - unable to achieve high operating rates - New capacities subject to export obligations -
reduced availability for domestic markets - RIL producing speciality grades not offered by
other producers
The concerns over a possible domestic surplus in
plastics do not take into consideration the
ground realities
18 19Performance Highlights
- Reliance continues to lead the Indian private
sector with highest sales, profits, assets, and
net worth - Record production level of 3.91 million tonnes in
the first half - increase of 13 - 400,000 tpa of PP and 930,000 tpa PX commissioned
at Jamnagar - balance plants will be commissioned
ahead of schedule in the current financial year - Prices of petrochemical products as well as
feedstocks have moved up sharply over the last
few months - Recent price trends indicate firmness in the
short term
20Financial Highlights
- Sales Rs. 8,673 crores (US 1,989 mn)
- Operating Profit Rs.1,713 crores (US 393 mn)
- Net Interest Cost Rs. 144 crores (US 33 mn)
- Cash Profit Rs. 1,569 crores (US 360 mn)
- Net Profit Rs. 1,122 crores (US 257 mn)
- Annualised CEPS Rs. 33.2 (US 0.76)
- Annualised EPS Rs. 23.6 (US 0.54)
First private sector company to report net profit
of over Rs. 1,100 crores in six months
21Income Statement
First private sector company to report net profit
of over Rs. 1,100 crores in six months
22US GAAP/ IAS Reconciliation
The major difference is primarily on account of
higher deferred taxation, arising from imposition
of surcharge on corporate tax
23Business Mix
Reliance remains focussed on the petrochemicals
business
24Growth in Production and Sales
- Sales revenue growth of 18, contributed by
- Impact of sales volume growth 13
- Impact of increase in avg. product prices 5
- Robust growth in domestic demand - over 95 of
production sold within India - Value added export opportunities captured -
Exports at Rs. 421 crores (US 97 mn) - Production volume increased 13 to a record level
of 3.91 - million tonnes - on course to achieve forecast
production - level of 8 - 8.5 million tonnes for the full year
25Enhanced Operating Margins
- Operating margins increased to 19.8 in H1 99-00.
- This was the result of
- strong volume growth
- higher product prices mitigating increased
feedstock costs - continued focus on efficiency, productivity and
costs - rationalisation of customs duty
-
- All plants operated at rated capacity during the
period
26Profitability Ratios
Increased OPM, Improved NPM and RONW Annualised
Cash EPS of Rs. 33.2 is discounted 7 times at
current price
27Liquidity Ratios
Conservative liquidity ratios reflect RILs
financial strength
28Conservative Financial Management
- Reliance is the only Indian company having
international ratings constrained by the
sovereign ceiling - Net gearing of 35 reflects conservative policies
- Net Debt Cash Flow ratio of 1.6 indicates the
companys ability to retire its entire debt in
less than 2 years - Forex exposure on account of international
borrowings of 1.3 billion fully hedged by
dollar assets - Annual Forex debt service outflow of about 110
mn. adequately covered by export revenues alone - Increasing export revenues provide additional
hedge
29Exports To Rise Significantly
- Exports revenues up 47 to Rs. 421 crores ( 97
mn) - Export revenues will increase about 200 to
400-500 mn (around Rs. 2,000 crores) p.a. by the
year 2000-01 - RILs imports of feedstocks will drop with the
commissioning of the Jamnagar complex - RIL to have substantial net foreign exchange
earnings by 2000-01 - Reliance to emerge amongst the largest
manufacturer exporters from the country
30Y2K Compliance
- All mission critical systems have been made Y2K
capable - Remediation of some non-critical systems will
extend in last quarter of 1999, due to plant
scheduling and equipment lead times - Contingency plans in place to control any risk
arising out of year 2000 problems - Y2K costs unlikely to have any significant impact
on financial position or results of operations - All major customers, international suppliers, and
banks are already Y2K compliant
Y2K issues are not expected to pose any material
risk to RILs operations
31 32Business Review - Polyester
- RIL emerges as the 5th largest PFY producer in
the world - The full impact of the Raymond Synthetics
capacity of 74,000 tpa to be reflected in the
next year
33Business Review - Polymers
- Polymers demand grew 14 in the first half
- The full impact of the 60 increase in RILs
plastics capacity will come through in the second
half
34Business Review - Oil and Gas
- Strong growth in production volumes - gas
production up sharply from 5.7 to 7.6 mm cu.
metres per day - Positive impact of higher oil and gas prices
35Leading Market Shares
RIL maintains its market leadership through its
nationwide marketing and distribution network,
product development activities and strong
customer relationships
36Demand Growth Potential - Polyester
Polyester Consumption Total (mn tpa) Per
capita (kgs) India 1106 1.1 China 3755 3.0 US 22
03 7.8 World 15268 2.5 Data for PFY and PSF
China consumes about 3 times as much polyester as
India - indicating strong potential for
continuing demand growth
37Demand Growth Potential - Plastics
Plastics Consumption Total (mn tpa) Per
capita (kgs) India 2308 2.4 China 11785 9.6 US 1
9487 72.2 World 77012 13.2 Data for PE,PP, and
PVC
Strong domestic demand growth likely to continue
with China consuming nearly 4 times as much
plastics as India
38Robust Growth in Domestic Demand
Historic Future growth CARG Estimates
Growth Drivers (last 5 yrs) (per
annum) Polyester 14 10-15 - lower
prices (PFY, PSF, PET) - substitution of
cotton Fibre Intermed. 17 10-15 - growth in
polyester PTA, MEG) demand
Plastics 12 12-15 - JPMA implementation (PE,
PP, PVC) - edible oil packaging -
Substitution of traditional materials
like metals, wood, glass -
Convenience, presentation
39RILs Acquisition Strategy
- Growth over the past 2 decades has been achieved
mainly through the organic route - Future growth to be driven by a mix of
acquisition and fresh capacity creation - The global petrochemicals industry is undergoing
a consolidation phase in pursuit of scale, focus
and efficiencies - Dow/Union Carbide, Equistar,
Montell - The domestic industry too will need to
restructure in order to ensure competitiveness - Reliance will participate in acquisition
opportunities to increase business
competitiveness and enhance shareholder value
40Rationalising Indian Polyester Industry
- RIL has acquired control of 140,000 tpa of
polyester capacity in 3 separate deals over the
last 2 years - Achieved improvement in market share,
diversification of manufacturing base, and
increase in overall integration - RILs acquisition strategy is focused at
maintaining market leadership in a regional
excess supply context - Reliance to leverage its technical skills,
financial strength, nation wide network, customer
relationships, and access to key inputs, in
creating value through acquisitions - Reliance working towards a more competitive
industry structure by leveraging its strengths to
acquire capacities
41- Capital Allocation Framework
42Capital Allocation Framework
- RIL will allocate upto 50 of its internal
accruals over the next 3 years for capacity
expansion/ debottlenecking - Reliance will also pursue other avenues for
deployment of its cash flows such as - acquisition opportunities in its business areas
- debt reduction
- enhanced distributions to shareholders, through
appropriate dividend and stock buyback policies
(subject to an appropriate regulatory framework)
RIL is committed to deployment of its future cash
flows in a manner that maximises shareholder value
43Capital Allocation Framework
- Profit growth and capital productivity will
receive due emphasis - Reliances profit oriented growth strategy will
- enable it to achieve significantly higher rates
of return on capital - require a level of investment that is
significantly lower than current capacity
replacement costs - strengthen its overall cost and competitive
position - enhance its overall market leadership
- improve its product mix, customer satisfaction
and customer reach
44Capex Plans for next 3 Years
- RIL will spend Rs. 1,000 crores per year on
expansion and de-bottlenecking programmes over
the next 3 years - This is well below the indicated level of 50 of
expected internal cash accruals - Additional capacities to be implemented at around
50 of the current replacement cost of comparable
assets - This will ensure lower capital intensity and
substantially higher returns - Detailed feasibility studies currently being
conducted
RIL will implement necessary capex plans to
maintain and enhance its leadership in growing
markets
45Polyester Business
- Reliance intends to double its polyester
capacity, with the focus on PFY - Reliance aims to be amongst the top 3 polyester
producers in the world - Reliance aims to be the lowest cost, and the most
competitive, polyester producer in the world - Demand growth for polyester continues to be in
double digits - PFY demand alone is increasing by
100,000 TPA - Reliance will correspondingly increase capacity
of its existing PTA plants to maintain the level
of integration
RILs polyester capacity will cross 1 million TPA
over the next 3 years
46Polymers Business
- Reliance intends to de-bottleneck its existing
multi-feed naphtha cracker from 750,000 tpa to
nearly 1 million tpa of ethylene - Simultaneous de-bottlenecking of downstream
capacities to achieve higher production of
polymers and other cracker products - Domestic polymer consumption has been increasing
at compounded double-digit growth rates
The debottlenecking of the cracker will be
achieved at marginal capital costs
47- Shareholder Value Enhancement
48Key Value Drivers
- Capex programme at Jamnagar nearing completion
- Continuing strong growth in overall volumes
- Upside from any further recovery in the
petrochemicals cycle - Improvement in capital efficiency and
productivity - Capital allocation framework transparently laid
down for the future
Reliance is committed to enhancing shareholder
value through appropriate business and financial
strategies
49Unlocking Hidden Values
- RILs 50 stake in RPL has a market value of Rs.
15,000 crores (US 3.5 billion) - 30 Participating interest in Panna, Mukta and
Tapti oil and gas fields recently valued at Rs.
2,600 crores (US 600 mn) in Enron restructuring - RILs equity stakes in BSES and LT have market
value of Rs. 1000 crores (US 250 mn) - Cash balances of over Rs. 6000 crores (US 1.5
bn) - over Rs. 60 per RIL share - Replacement value of RILs manufacturing assets
put at Rs. 40,000 crores (US 9 bn) - over Rs.
400 per RIL share - Total value of the above around Rs. 65,000 crs
(nearly US 15 bn) - over Rs. 650 per RIL share
Reliance will endeavour to take all necessary
steps to unlock hidden values for enhancing
shareholder value
50Creeping Acquisition of RIL Shares
- The promoters have acquired around 20 million
shares of RIL (2 of equity) from secondary
markets - Purchase of shares in full compliance of SEBI
guidelines for creeping acquisitions - Under SEBI guidelines, promoters have flexibility
to buy additional 3 of equity (around 30 million
shares) within the same 12 month period - Acquisition reflects promoters strong commitment
to RIL, and their firm belief in under-valuation
of shares
The promoters have affirmed their commitment to
enhance their shareholding in RIL, utilising the
creeping provisions to the fullest extent
51RILs Shareholding Pattern
Category Promoters 28 FIIs 16 GDRs 8 NRI /
OCBs 2 Indian FIs / MFs/ Banks 21 Public 25 -----
100
- The shareholding has become increasingly
institutionalised - retail shareholding has
declined from 50 to around 25 currently - Effective floating stock is much lower - loyal
base of over 2.2 million small investors
52Price Performance of RILs Stock
change in the local stock price in
Rs. Absolute Outperformance to Sensex 3
years 142 85 1 year 119 48 Year To
Date 91 32
- RILs market capitalisation has increased to over
Rs. 25,000 crores (US 6 billion) - Increase of over Rs. 12,000 crores (nearly 3
billion) since January 1999
53Valuation Comparison with Peer Group
PE Relative PE Dupont 25 1.0 Mobil-Exxo
n 28 1.1 Shell 29 1.1 ICI 21 1.1 Solvay 16 1.
0 RIL 12 0.6
RILs stock price is attractively valued in
comparison to its peer group companies in the West
54 55Summary
- Commissioning of the Jamnagar petrochemicals
complex will take volumes to over 10 million
tonnes next year - Consolidation of RPLs earnings, significant
reduction in capital work in progress, and
optimal capital allocation, to drive EVA, ROCE
and RONW higher in the future - Significant upside from any further improvement
in petrochemicals prices and margins - Value enhancing acquisitions and fresh capacity
creation at marginal costs to drive profit
oriented volume growth over the next few years
RIL has moved to the top ranks of the
international petrochemicals industry, on the
strength of its world class plants and
demonstrated global competitiveness
56 57Index
Background Global Competitiveness Regulatory
Environment Marketing and Distribution Financial
Highlights
58 59Worlds Largest Grassroot Refinery
- RPLs 27 million tpa refinery at Jamnagar in
Gujarat is the worlds largest grassroots
refinery - The mega refinery will account for over 25 of
Indias total refining capacity upon full
commissioning - Phase wise commissioning currently underway -
expected to be completed ahead of schedule this
year - Output of controlled products being lifted and
marketed by public sector oil companies - IOC,
BPCL and HPCL
Unique positioning in the global context - a
world class, state-of-the-art refinery in a fast
growing market
60A Fast Growing Domestic Market
- Current Indian per capita consumption levels very
low at 50 of Chinese, and 2 of US, levels - Upside potential with the recovery in overall
economic growth, and improving business/consumer
confidence - Adequate demand supply deficits in the country
for all of RPLs products, except gasoline - Superior quality gasoline (meeting California
specs) from RPLs refinery to target suitable
export markets
The hugely deficit Indian market provides a ready
home for virtually all of RPLs production
61RPL - Far Ahead of the Competition
RPL is the most modern refinery in India with the
highest complexity and greatest scope for value
addition
62Major Contribution to the Nation
- Reliances investments at Jamnagar represent 5
of gross assets of the entire Indian corporate
sector - The output from the Jamnagar complex will make up
around 4 of total turnover of the Indian
corporate sector - The multiplier effect of activities at the
Jamnagr complex will be around Rs. 112,000 crores
(US 26 billion) - equal to around 6.5 of
Indias GDP - The production at Jamnagr will result in import
substitution of US 5 billion - The Jamnagar complex will contribute Rs. 7,000
crores (US 1.6 billion) each year to the
national exchequer - around 7 of total tax
revenues of the Indian government
63 64Elements of Global Competitiveness
- Economies of scale
- Higher complexity
- State of the art technology
- Enhanced integration
- Efficient logistics
- Superior product mix
- Optimum financing costs
- Supportive regulatory framework
- Located in a deficit and growing market
65Economies of Scale
Cost per unit capacity
Com- missioning
Refining Company
Capital Cost
Capacity
Nelson
Year
(M bpsd)
( per bpd)
Index
(Million )
MRPL, India
1996
60
670
11.2
6.50
Shell, Malaysia
1996
125
1978
15.8
4.14
Star Petroleum,Malaysia
1996
150
1820
12.1
-
IOC, Panipat, India
1998
120
986
8.2
6.31
RPL (Only Refinery)
1999
540
3209
5.9
9.93
Jamnagar Complex
1999
13.77
- RPLs per unit capital costs are 30 -60 lower
than other recently completed Indian and
international refineries, despite its higher
complexity - RPL enjoys amongst the lowest capital and
operating cost positions in Asia
66Higher Complexity - Superior Margins
- One of the most complex refineries in Asia
- Nelsons index of nearly 14 (including
petrochemicals complex) compared to about 5 for
average Asian refinery - Higher complexity due to a unique configuration
comprising FCC, Coker, and Reformer, and
integration with downstream petrochemicals and
power plants - Deeper conversion leads to higher GRMs as
compared to domestic, regional, and global peers - Enables maximisation of deficit middle distillate
products and minimisation of bottom-of-the-barrel
output
Unique configuration and integration results in
significantly higher margins compared to peer
group
67Benefits of Integration
- RPLs refinery is fully integrated with
petrochemicals, power plants, a captive port and
related infrastructure - Combined investment of over Rs. 24,000 crores
(US 6 billion) is the largest made at a single
location in India by any private sector group - Key feedstock and product linkages lead to higher
efficiencies and enhanced value addition - 25-30 of refinerys total production (mainly
reformate, naphtha, propylene, and coke) to be
consumed captively within the group - Substantial savings in freight and incidental
costs
Significant downstream linkages constitute a
unique dimension of RPLs global competitiveness
68Efficient Logistics
- Access to world class fully integrated logistics
for product handling and evacuation - World scale captive port at Jamnagar
- Largest petroleum terminal in India with capacity
to handle 50 MMT - more than Indias entire crude
imports - Only all weather deep sea port in India
- Can receive U/VLCCs carrying over 300,000 tonnes
of crude round the year - Dual SPMs and sub-sea pipelines for efficient
unloading and movement of crude
Indias largest tank farm with capacity of 3.5
MMT - around 20 of tank farm capacity of the
Indian petroleum sector
69Efficient Logistics
- Indias largest product despatch terminal
(capacity 10 MMT) with facilities for movement of
products by road, rail and sea - Distribution
- Upcoming Vadinar Kandla pipeline to provide
access to the deficit North West market through
the Kandla-Bhatinda pipeline - Strategic stake in Petronet India, the parent
company implementing new pipeline networks in the
country
Faster turn around and significantly lower crude
and product handling costs add to the competitive
edge
70Efficient Crude Procurement
- RPL is permitted to directly import its crude
requirements - opportunity for cost savings
through efficient procurement - RPLs refinery has flexibility to process
virtually any traded crude neat or in blend -
benefits from price differentials - Most proximate location in India to crude surplus
regions of the Middle East - World class in-house crude procurement planning
and processing group to optimise procurement of
crude
World class systems for optimising the supply
chain and maximising operating margins - distinct
edge over public sector refiners
71Superior Product Specifications
- Technical capability to deliver world class
quality products, even beyond Euro II norms - HSD with less than 0.05 sulphur (stipulated max
0.25 for year 2000) - gasoline adhering to California specifications
- Unleaded gasoline with benzene less than 1
- Decanalisation of exports of petroleum products
provides RPL opportunities for international
product swaps
RPLs superior product quality will give it a
competitive edge in domestic and export markets
72 73Oil Sector Reforms
- Marketing of all products except gasoline,
diesel, kerosene, LPG and ATF (aviation turbine
fuel) decontrolled - The 5 controlled products can only be marketed by
oil PSUs during the transition period upto 2002 - Refinery gate pricing for controlled products,
based on tariff adjusted import parity principle - 10-15 tariff differential assured for domestic
refineries for the first 5 years to provide level
playing field
Reforms allow efficient new producers to earn
excess profits - no upside potential for old
refineries under the APM
74Fiscal Benefits available to RPL
- Income tax holiday for a period of 7 years
- Availability of sales tax benefits as per
Government of Gujarat policy (upto 90 of the
project cost for a period of 14 years)
Government has announced several fiscal
incentives to promote private sector investment
in the refining sector
75- Marketing and Distribution
76Marketing Arrangements - Till 2002
- 25-30 of RPLs production will be consumed
captively (mainly, reformate, naphtha, propylene,
and coke) - Arrangements in place for marketing controlled
output (around 60 of total production) to oil
PSUs - 50 to IOC, and 25 each to BPCL and HPCL - All products, except gasoline, to be fully
absorbed in the deficit domestic markets
Marketing arrangements are in place in respect of
RPLs entire output of controlled and
decontrolled products
77Marketing Strategy Post 2002
- RPL will be free to market all products directly,
post the transition period beyond 2002 - The existing agreements between RPL and IOC
already contemplate formation of a 5050 joint
venture for marketing part of RPLs production of
controlled products post 2002 - Potential disinvestment/strategic sale of
government shareholding in marketing PSUs (IBP,
HPCL, BPCL) may provide attractive opportunities - Strong cash flows provide flexibility with regard
to future plans for marketing and distribution of
products
78 79Financial Management
- Total capital outlay of Rs. 14,250 crores (US
3.4 billion) for the refinery project - Conservative gross debtequity ratio of below 11
despite the capital intensive nature of the
project - Foreign exchange component in debt restricted to
less than 4 of the total project cost - Significant cash flows from the first full year
of operations provide ability to gradually pay
down debt - Debtequity ratio likely to come down to an
extremely conservative 0.51 over the next few
years
Financing policies have been geared towards
minimising risks in the project implementation
stage
80Price Performance of RPLs Stock
change in the local stock price in
Rs. Absolute Outperformance to Sensex 3
years 449 392 1 year 192 121 Year To
Date 188 129
- RPLs market capitalisation has increased to over
Rs. 20,000 crores (nearly US 5 billion) - RPL GDRs are now listed and traded on the
Luxembourg stock exchange
81Shareholding Pattern
Fully diluted equity of Rs. 5,200 crores (US 1.2
billion) equity Reliance group 64 GDRs 7 Financ
ial Institutions 9 FIIs 1 Public 19 ----- 100
- Large promoters holding reflects very strong
commitment - Daily trading volumes have crossed 15 million
shares - RPL enjoys the support of over 2.3 million retail
investors
82Performance Outlook for 2000-01
- RPL likely to operate at 100 capacity in the
next financial year ending March 2001 - Rated Asias most competitive refinery, in a
recent benchmarking study - highest cash margins - Comparable to RIL in size
- Turnover of Rs. 22,000 crores (US 5 billion) in
first full year of operations - Likely to generate significant cash flows and
profits
RPL will rank among the top 5 companies in India
in assets, net worth, sales and profits from the
very first year
83Reliance Indias World Class Corporation