Aspen Energy Forum 7-04

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Current US Energy Policy
Whitehouse says just do more drilling for oil
gas
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The Era of Cheap Energy is Over

• Environmental concerns mercury, CO2
• Rising cost of extraction
• Deep oceans, arctic
• Low quality hydrocabons (oil sands, heavy oil,
  coal to liquids, oil shale)
• Hostile or unstable nations

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(No Transcript)
4
Vehicles in the USA
1.17 cars per licensed driver In 2003
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New Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1975-2001
How much should we raise CAFÉ?
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National Security Issues

• Why are we sending 300 billion per year to Iran,
  Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, etc.?
• Lenin The capitalists are so hungry for profits
  that they will sell us the rope to hang them
  with. and they will send us the money to buy
  the rope!

7
Conservation Without Pain

• Improve car fuel economy 50 by hybrids new
  diesels
• Improve building efficiency by 80
• Improve lighting, AC, etc. by 50
• With no perceptible drop in quality some
  improvements
• Why dont we do it? Energy is too cheap! the
  hidden cost is much higher

8
One Solution Plug-in Hybrids

• USA uses 140 billion gallons of gas/ year
• Equivalent to 200 billion gallons of ethanol
• Hybrid raises fuel economy from 24 to 32
  miles/gal gt 150 billion gal/yr of ethanol
• Average trips10 miles, 40 miles/car/day
• 20 mile battery charge from plug saves 2/3 of
  gasoline need 50 billion gal/yr
• Ethanol from grasses trees can supply it
• Plug hybrid costs 5-9,000 more - Need a 80/bbl
  floor on oil to attract buyers

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What is Sensible Policy?

• Is 1.1 cars per licensed driver enough?
• 2002 BTU/GDP BTU/pop GDP/pop
• Denmark 38 148 39
• USA 81 333 38
• Austria 55 171 31
• France 63 182 29
• Sweden 72 244 34