A VOLCANIC ISSUE based on an exercise at Penn State

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A VOLCANIC ISSUE(based on an exercise at Penn
State)
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VOLCANOES COMMUNITIES

• learned much about volcanoes in the last few
  decades, but weve been building around them for
  a long time.
• in U.S., little cultural memory exists about
  past hazards to help us plan and develop our
  communities (Katrina?).
• communities sometimes have to deal with new risks
  as new hazards are identified.

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HAZARD MITIGATION

• classify hazard mitigation efforts into two broad
  categories
• short term
• short term mitigation evacuation and emergency
  response.
• long Term
• long term planning monitoring, evacuation
  planning and drilling, land use, building codes,
  etc.

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LONG-TERM MITIGATION

• much of what we can do to limit the risk involved
  in hazards requires long-term efforts and
  investments.

• informed decisions on land use and/or the
  location of critical facilities are necessary
  to reduce the risks associated with disasters.

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OUR EXERCISE

• act out a scenario involving the reaction of
  citizens of a small U.S. city that has recently
  found out that their local high school sits in
  the path of volcanic mud-flows or lahars.
• must decide what action (if any) is necessary to
  ensure the safety of their children.

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OUR EDUCATIONAL OBJECTIVES

• explore community issues that arise in dealing
  with a potential volcanic hazard and how these
  issues affect decisions that need to be made for
  the safety of the community.

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YOUR ASSIGNMENT

• submit a 500-word newspaper-article that
• 1. summarizes the main arguments of each interest
  group.
• 2. documents the procedure and agenda of the
  meeting
• 3. describes the consequences of the decision
  that the class reaches.
• due Friday, March 9, 2007

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BACKGROUND

• science is not in line with common perceptions
• - IT IS VAGUE -
• part of our city has in the past been inundated
  by lahars about every 500-1000 years.
• last lahar through the area was about 500 years
  ago.
• prediction is uncertain.

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• Where are the volcano and the town?

VOLCANO
RIVER
RIVER
27 MILES
TOWN
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hazard overview
-abundance of volcanic materials -glaciers -conver
gence of two rivers
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hazard overview
glaciers on the summit
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town hazard overview

• why is the mudflow risk so great here?
• large volume of glaciers, ice and snow on volcano
• melt because of volcanic activity
• calve and cause lahar in that manner
• trap large volumes of water that can suddenly
  break out
• two large river drainages converge in town
• any large lahars effects will be doubled here.
• perceptions of safety or enough warning
• people think they will see volcanic activity and
  know to evacuate

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town hazard overview

• what have the mudflows been like in the past?
• characteristics
• tangle of rock, clay, water, trees and ice
  chunks
• incredibly powerful
• magnitude
• deposits 50 ft. thick
• reason for occurring
• collapse of glacier like an avalanche
  or landslide
• max speed 49 mph, average speed 41 mph
• reach town in 33-40 min.

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town hazard overview

• frequency of occurrence
• small frequent flows
• every year, often many times a year
• large infrequent flows
• from previous lahar deposits, happen on AVERAGE
  every 500- 1000 years. 500 years since last
  Big One
• does NOT mean that one will definitely happen in
  the next 150 years could happen tomorrow or in
  1000 years.
• over time, likelihood of large lahar happening in
  any year increases.

THE THREAT IS REAL AND SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A
MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE RESIDENTS OF THIS REGION
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OUR PROBLEM

• part of land susceptible to lahars includes a
  large public school complex.
• school is not brand new, but the community
  expected it to last at least another 25 years.
• school complex includes about 2,000 students.

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PASTEXTENTOF LAHARS
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OUR CHOICES

• several alternative actions
• -- each has risks and/or financial consequences
• 1. do nothing.
• 2. install an early warning system to detect
  lahars and evacuate students in the event of a
  disaster.
• 3. build a new school.
• 4. do both 2 and 3.

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LOCAL POLITICS

• each action has risks and costs
• -- decision is political.
• each of us will assume the role of an individual
  in a particular interest group.

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THE CAST OF CHARACTERS

• USGS visiting scientists (2 people)
• The Mayor City Council (3 people)
• The School Board (3 people)
• The Chamber of Commerce (2 people)
• Members of the local PTA (Parents
  Teachers Association) (4 people)
• Single young professionals (2 people)
• Retired individuals and couples (2 people)
• Single parents living in lahar-prone regions near
  the school (2 people)

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OUR SCHEDULE tonight

• assign roles - think about how your
  character would react
• meet in groups - USGS, PTA, School Board,
  Chamber of Commerce, Mayor and Council, etc.
• Town Meeting - next class... tonight we
  will take an exit poll

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GROUP MEETING TASKS

• ultimate goal is to make a decision on what to do
  about the school.
• identifying what information you need to make a
  decision
• prioritizing that information in line with your
  groups personal agenda.
• speaking at the Town Meeting

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OUR SCHEDULE Next Week

• TOWN MEETING
• discussion (issues, solutions, etc.)
• TOWN VOTE
• majority decides fate of school
• A CASE STUDY
• how one town actually dealt with the problem