Single Copy Draw Forecasting

1
Single Copy Draw Forecasting

• __________________________________________________
  ___________________________________________
• Steven L. Bush
• Austin American-Statesman

2
Agenda

• Overview of Single Copy
• Returns and Sell Outs
• Legacy System Forecasting
• Media Solution Forecasting
• Demonstration
• Conclusions

3
Single Copy Overview

• Daily Single Copy 27,477 ( 956) YTD
• Sunday Single Copy 69,795 (-873) YTD
• City Zone - 47 routes (600 daily/1,200 Sunday)
• Employees - 64 part time -14 full time
• Contractor 1
• Full time includes
• Operations Mgr, 3 Area Managers, 3 Utility, 1
  Rack Repair, 4 Retail Sales Reps, Admin Asst.,
  Data Entry Specialist

4
Returns and Sell Outs

• Returns 28 Daily 19 Sunday
• Sell Outs 26 -28
• Hardcopy Manifests
• Daily keypunch 30hrs
• 3,200 outlets
• - 2,200 racks
• - 1,200 OTCs

5
Legacy System Forecasting

• Averaging the Historical Data
• Smoothed peaks and valleys thru direct averaging
• Used rule-based logic not mathematical modeling
  (assumes demand is fairly static not dynamic)
• Doesnt take long term trends, seasonality or
  events into the model
• Daily Enhancements

6
Problem-Areas

• High average Return and Sell-Out
• Forecast inaccuracy
• No way to control Return or Sell-Out
  efficiently
• Time Lag in the system
• Lack of real-time analysis tools
• Difficult to regulate and monitor performance
• Inaccessibility to data
• Inability to pin-point trouble areas
  realistically
• Reports developed via IS programmers

7
Demantra - Media Solution

• Media Solution is a circulation planning and
  forecasting tool
• It attempts to analyze 3 things
• Historical Data (Trends, seasonality and
  cyclicality)
• Newsworthy Events (political, sporting)
• Draw Availability Estimates
• It does this by applying statistical
  relationships and a variety of mathematical
  models to calculate future sales requirements at
  all locations
• It can also calculate account replenishment
  during mid-day

8
Sample Planning Process

• How does media solution work on a day-to-day
  basis?
• Extract data from mainframe system
• Run weekly forecast batch engine
• Analyze the forecast and apply overrides or
  change the availability, if necessary
• Apply events, if required

Mainframe Circulation System
Flat File .txt (tab)
media solution
Flat File
9
Media Solution Interface
UT Holiday in the Future
UT Holiday in the Past
10
Media Solution

• Create and Run Queries
• Apply Events
• User-Designed Interface
• Tables and Summary Reports
• Apply Overrides
• Adjust Product Availability

11
Conclusions

• Powerful tool for analyzing scopy
• Decreased return percentages
• Constant monitoring (adjusting of availability)
• Continuing to test

12
Thank you.